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Generated from 14 Previous Games
SIDE :-1406 = 8.46
Pick: Houston Astros ML -140
Who likes to think hard on Sundays? Nobody. So let us do it for you.
Actually, it turns out that this is a little bit of a no brainer.
The only question that we’re concerned with is if the odds are too good to be true (thereby indicating sharp movement with Texas).
Considering the reputation that Texas earned in 2013, considering the reputation that Houston earned in 2013 (and the year before and the year before that…) it’s no wonder that many bettors’ first instinct is to fade Houston and bet Texas. This would be where I find value in the Houston line at -140; because, looking at this line, in comparison to other lines on the board, it should have Houston priced as high chalk at -200.
Let’s look at what we get for -140:
- Houston with a +3.54 run advantage.
Granted, it’s only across 14 games, but at the same time +3.54 is nothing to sneeze at either.
- Houston is 8-3 vs Texas this season.
- Keuchel is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.217.
- Martinez is 5.31 ERA all season.
- Martinez is 6.19 ERA L3G.
- Keuchel is 2.89 ERA all season.
- Keuchel is 0.78 ERA L3G.
- Texas is 4.1 RPG all season.
- Texas is 5.3 vs Left Handed Pitchers.
- Houston is 3.9 RPG all season.
- Houston is 3.9 RPG vs Right Handed Pitchers
Stats to SUPPORT the HOUSTON pick:
|When HOUSTON Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 3 Lost in L5G||27 – 15 – 0|
|When TEXAS played as Underdog- With a spread between 140 and 160||10-30-0|
|When TEXAS played as Road Team- With a spread between 140 and 160||8-17-0|
|When TEXAS played as Home or Away Team- Vs AL WEST||14-26-10|
|When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of August – Before a conference game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a night game||9-18-0|
|When TEXAS played as a road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or More – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G||9 – 17 – 0|
|When TEXAS played as a road team – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G||7 – 13 – 0|
Stats to THREATEN the HOUSTON pick:
|When TEXAS team played as a Road team – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a non division game – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a series loss||7-4-0|
|When HOUSTON played as Home Team- Vs TEXAS||7-13-5|
|When HOUSTON played as Home or Away Team- Vs TEXAS||13-28-9|
|When D Keuchel ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 140 and 160||3-8-0|
|When HOUSTON team played as a Home team – Last 4 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a series loss – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game||4-9-0|
|When TEXAS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – After a non division game – Vs. Left handed pitchers||13-26-0|
|When HOUSTON played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G||28 – 63 – 0|