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Los Angeles Dodgers
Generated from 67 Previous Games
SIDE :-1294.12 = 8.48
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML -129 (1 unit)
We’re putting this pick down on our most powerful consideration.
This is a too good to be true consideration based on the market only having 1 explanation:
The sharps are jumping on Atlanta today.
ATL at -129 makes absolutely no sense.
Los Angeles is 4.0 RF L7G.
Los Angeles is 3.0 RA L7G.
Atlanta is 3.0 RF L7G.
Atlanta is 4.3 RA L7G.
LAD has scoring momentum both in RF and RA.
Los Angeles hits 4.2 RPG vs RH Starters.
Atlanta hits 3.7 vs RH Starters.
LAD has better face-off value in terms of “handed-pitcher.”
Atlanta has a bullpen throwing 3.62 ERA all season.
Los Angeles has bullpen throwing 3.26 ERA all season.
Bullpens are about even.
The Dodgers’ Hernandez is 3.83 ERA all season.
Hernandez is 1.71 ERA last 3 games.
The Braves’ Harang is 3.31 ERA all season.
Harang is 3.32 ERA last 3 games.
Both pitchers are even over the span, but LAD has the clear edge L3G. Harang is pitching fire.
LAD is 5-1 vs ATL this season.
LAD has the Braves’ number this season so far.
LAD is 6-3 L9G
ATL is 3-6 L9G
LAD has obvious winning momentum vs ATL’s obvious losing momentum.
That’s a lot of red and a ton of advantage in favour of the LOS ANGELES DODGERS to win.
So how then do we explain that they are paying as an UNDERDOG??
California who has 38 million biased bettors.
Georgia has 9 million biased bettors.
This should clearly deflate the value of Los Angeles, yet once again, they are paying dog value!
The market also shows us Los Angeles with about 65% of the action, yet, the line moved with ATLANTA minority. Who is betting Atlanta? Look at the stats above and tell me who is moving the line with Atlanta when they’re the population minority and when all obvious statistical considerations favour Los Angeles?
We’re banking on this being a trap line. We’ve seen enough to know what they look like and this position satisfies all categories.
In fact, based on experience with this position, we’re recommend a 2 unit play. This will be the second 2 unit play recommendation of all of 2014, but if we’re going to play 2 units, this is definitely the spot we would pick.
Matchups definitely looks like it might be a part of where the clandestine confidence on the ATL pick is stemming from.
Stats to SUPPORT the ATLANTA pick:
|When ATLANTA played as Home Favourite- in the month of August||30-15-0|
|When ATLANTA played as Home Team- in the month of August||34-16-0|
|When ATLANTA played as Home Team- With a spread between 100 and 120||24-14-2|
|When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – After a conference game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a 2 game under – Coming off a Home win||35-19-0|
|When ATLANTA played as a home team – During Last 5 Years – With 2 Under or More||66 – 44 – 0|
|When ATLANTA Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – Won Last Game by 1 Runs||39 – 25 – 0|
|When HERNANDEZ RUNELVYS ‘s Team played as Road Team- With a spread between 100 and 120||6-13-0|
|When HERNANDEZ RUNELVYS ‘s Team played as Underdog- With a spread between 100 and 120||6-21-0|
|When LOS ANGELES team Played as road team as a Underdog – During a day game – Last 2 years||11-21-0|
Stats to THREATEN the ATLANTA pick:
|When LOS ANGELES team played as a Road team – Before a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series||19-10-0|
|When LOS ANGELES team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is 7.5 – During the month of August||15-9-0|
|When LOS ANGELES team played as a road team – During the month of August – Last 3 years||34-18-0|
|When ATLANTA played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 100 and 120||5-10-5|