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San Diego Chargers
Generated from 35 Previous Games
San Francisco 49ers
24.42 = 44.21
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -6 (1/2u)
Why San Francisco?
We like the 49ers because we’ve documented that more times than not, when we think we’re getting a good burn on the books, we’re the ones that end of with 3rd degree wounds.
Look at it and you tell me what makes sense about SF at -6.
SF – 3PF 23PA
SDC – 27PF 7PA
SF – 0PF 34PA
SDC – 14PF 41PA
Grand total Pre-Season scoring:
49ers: 3 – 57
Chargers: 41 – 48
This leaves the Chargers with a +/- of + 47 points.
Considering that the Chargers faced the Seahawks in week 2, we don’t have to worry about capping for strength as these teams have faced equalish competition in the preseason so far.
So what does this mean?
A few things…
1. There is NO WAY that the 49ers should be priced as chalk MUCH LESS at a whopping -6.
2. Since both teams are from the same state, population bias isn’t a huge factor; although, the 49ers have some namebrand power which could tilt the line their way a tiny bit.
3. Either the books are off their rocker, or we’re overlooking something.
What are some bettors might be overlooking:
LAST HOME GAME IN THE PRESEASON!
Why did the 49ers score 0 points last game?
Because they might have been saving their better strings for this pre-season home closer.
If this is true, then San Diego, who plays their home closer next week, might be in the same position that the 49ers were in last week!
This could absolutely be a matter of the 49ers’ best lines vs San Diego’s worst lines.
This is the only point that we could find that might bring perspective to this absurd spread besides the 49ers having namebrand power and an excellent season last year.
With 49ers ATS:
|When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Played as a Favorite – With 3 Under||15 – 7 – 2|
|When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as Road team as a Underdog – Coming off vs National Conference opponent – Coming off a 1 under||4-10-2|
Against 49ers ATS:
|When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS played as Road Underdog- On Grass Surface||23-15-2|
|When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Last 5 years||9-5-1|
The fact that despite this absurd line, the 49ers are still somehow seeing the majority of the bets. We can only suspect that the Chargers intend to all but throw this game and for the 49ers to give their fans a good taste of what’s to come this season. If your average NFL bettors were suckers, we’d see them pounding the Chargers ATS, but they are not. There is a reason that most people are leaving the * +47 team * well alone and we are respecting that reason.
Take the 49ers, the market says so because the only way to explain this market is that the 49ers will cover the spread; either that, or, Vegas doesn’t know how to make money.
Which do you think is more likely?