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Generated from 30 Previous Games
Los Angeles Angels
4.84 = 9.31
Pick: MIA@LAA OVER 8.5 (1 unit)
Garrett Richards was carried out on a stretcher leaving a vacuum and Wade LeBlanc is the Angels’ best answer.
We took a careful look at the LAA ML, but despite all of the favourable stats from the ATS database with the Angels today, we are not interested in betting the LAA ML here. Reason? Wade LeBlanc appears like he will likely be a liability here. Our best guess is that if the Angels were to actually win this game, it would be in something like 6-4 slobberknocker total or something comparable.
Earlier in the season we found that chasing untested pitchers to show up poorly was not a good tactic. Normally, they fared very well and did far better than expected. We suspect that something about the “1st game adrenaline” played a huge factor where instead of it transposing into bad nerves and shaky hands, it instead worked out to pin-point focus and stamina.
In this case, we don’t think that this is applicable.
LeBlanc has been pinballing between MLB and AAA since his debut with San Diego in 2008.
His ERA seems to drop by about 1.00 ERA every time he returns. We have no reason to think that today will be any different.
Miami is 4.1 RPG all season.
Miami is 5.2 vs Left-Handed Pitchers.
So not only is LeBlanc to be regarded as ‘mediocre at best’, but he’s going up against arguably the strongest hitting roster vs Left Handed Pitchers in the league.
We expect Miami to collect multiple runs in the first 6, and with the LAA bullpen being about average, they should have chances in the last 3 innings as well.
With Miami hitting 5.9 RPG, they could actually put this over the total single-handedly.
This is the reason we don’t like the LAA ML, but it’s the reason we think Miami should be good for the OVER 8.5.
Los Angeles is no slouch at the plate either! They are one of the hardest hitting teams in the league and they are also in their wheel-house hitting 4.9 RPG vs Right-Handed Pitchers.
The Angels will be up against Cosart who is an average 4.14 ERA.
It could be noted that Cosart is throwing some dynamite last 3 games at 2.45 ERA L3G…
…when we handicap his competition at the plate, we find Texas, St Louis, Cincinnati. None of these teams is anywhere near the top 10 hitting teams in the league so Cosart has had it a little bit easy. Let’s see how he does going up against the #4 hitters in the league (.OPS).
Also, it should be mentioned that Cosart has not typically done well vs the Angels in the past.
- Cosart is 0-2 vs the Angels with a 5.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.263.
After all is said and done, after investigating several other games, this is the pick that we ended up going with for a full unit. We feel it’s the best bet on the card.