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Generated from 58 Previous Games
3.59 = 7.69
Pick: Houston Astros ML +113
Just like with the Washington pick yesterday, we smell a rat with Oakland here today.
Once again, we’re tasked with explaining why Vegas has chosen to price Houston anywhere close to PK.
Once again, the population bias should deflate Oakland and inflate the Houston line. Yet we see Houston greatly deflated from what we would normally expect.
The Martingale consideration on Houston’s 3 consecutive losses isn’t a powerful explanation because Houston has a losing record to the tune of 55-77. Negative progression bettors wouldn’t be betting the martingale to win after only 3 Losses on a team with a record like that.
So where is all this action on Houston coming from?
We’re left with 2 answers:
a) there is huge sharp money on Houston
b) the obvious stats justify Houston with chances
Let’s look at how the stats matchup:
4.7 RPG L7G
4.7 RPG vs LH Starters
2.80 ERA in the bullpen all season
Hammel is 3.84 ERA all season
Hammel is 3.60 ERA L3G
3.1 RPG L7G
3.9 vs RH Starters
4.95 ERA in the bullpen all season
Keuchel is 3.12 ERA all season
Keuchel is 4.71 ERA L3G
The red stats highlight where Houston is far enough behind to where it could be a game changing deficit.
Look at Oakland (arguably the best in the league (WL:77-53))
Look at Houston (arguably the worst (WL:55-77))
Look at the A’s dominance in the pen.
Look at the A’s dominance at the plate.
Hammel marks a 3.78 ERA vs Houston with a WHIP of 1.162
Keuchel marks a 4.70 ERA vs Oakland with a WHIP of 1.533
NOTHING about the ML for this game makes so much as a lick of sense.
We have time and time again cashed in on this consideration and we are confident that Houston should be no exception
Either Vegas doesn’t have a clue how to make money, or, they know something that we haven’t considered and Houston is actually who the sharps at Vegas favor to win here.
It’s difficult to think about it, but when it comes to this consideration, bettors that shop for strong value will run into this time and time again. (See our 1-8 streak where we highlighted all of the ‘so-called’ “steals”.)
Value is great, but only after we factor out the different things that cause inflation/deflation, and the market standing. Banking on value that is “too good to be true” is not the way to go…because in our documented experience…it usually is.
Tip of the day: *Always make sure the value has a proper explanation.*
By all accounts the ATS Database shows Oakland to blow away Houston.
Just like yesterday with the 3-2 Philly win, we have to call this contest ‘extenuating circumstances’ and fade the overwhelming majority and the obvious good sense that would normally have us fade a top 3 team against a bottom 3 team.
To think that we would do so for a near PK underdog…well that’s just insane.
Of course … besides “insane”… it’s also “following the money”.