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NFL 2014 Pre-Season Home Closers

WorldSeriesOfHandicapping.com

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Pick: Home Teams (Batch bet the lot, or snipe your favourites)

 

Recommended:

Dallas Cowboys: 1 unit ATS.

New Orleans Saints: 1.5 units ATS.

Philadelphia Eagles: 2.0 units ATS.

Tennessee Titans: Optional (Encouraging market.)

Houston Texans: Optional (Encouraging market.)

New York Jets
New York Jets 
O/U :43.5

19.62

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-28
Time: 18:00:00

Generated from 17 Previous Games

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
SIDE :2.5

24.89 = 44.51

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 
O/U :43.5

18.81

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-28
Time: 19:00:00

Generated from 26 Previous Games

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
SIDE :3.5

17.96 = 36.77

Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos 
SIDE :2

20.88

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-28
Time: 19:00:00

Generated from 26 Previous Games

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
O/U :43.5

22.06 = 42.94

The first thing we want to turn your attention to is critical to today’s understanding.

http://atsstats.com/san-diego-chargers-vs-san-francisco-49ers-preview-august-24th-2014/

On the 24th, we took the 49ers at -6, who had scored 3 points in 8 quarters, with a +/- of -47 points vs the San  Diego Chargers across 2 week. San Francisco 49ers were -47 points in 8 quarters and priced at -6.

We selected the 49ers based strictly on the conspicuous market, but speculated that the 49ers were focused on playing their best lines in their home closer.

After they came out and slew the Chargers, we suspected that we are on to something.

If true, we should find some Home Closer pre-season trends.

2009 Pre-Season 10-6 home team wins.
2010 Pre-Season 13-3 home team wins.2011 Pre-Season 12-4 home team wins.
2012 Pre-Season 14-2 home team wins.
2013 Pre-Season 9-7 home team wins.

Home vs Visiting on Pre-Season Home Closers L5Y:

Home 58  Visitors 22 = Winning percentage of 72.5%

 

*CAUTION* Remember the 49ers last week!! This is NOT a matter of shopping for value.
Looking for the best steals and deals is going to set you up to lose!
All that we’re looking for is ATS WINNERS.

 

So what we’re going to do is pick the worst home teams with the WORST +/- Net Points from the 1st 3 weeks, vs the BEST +/-, and find which of these teams are still being priced as favourites.

This should replicate our success with the same market scenario as the 49ers last week and transpose it into today’s winners.

 

Falcons -26 vs Jaguars +4 = JAK +30 ( -4 ATS ) Could this line be like the Chargers last week? Could this line be too good? Is it a steal or is it a trap?

Chiefs -28 vs Packers +20 = GBP +28 ( -3 ATS ) Could this line be like the Chargers last week? With KC benching their starters and GBP being way ahead in points, could this line be too good? Is it a steal or is it a trap?

Combined first 3 weeks of Visitor +/- vs Home +/- and the ATS spread line:

Patriots +13 vs Giants +20 = NYG +7 (-3 ATS )

Colts -10 vs Bengals -4 = CIN +6 (-2.5 ATS )

Rams +3 vs Dolphins +5 = MIA +2 ( -3 ATS )

Panthers -13 vs Steelers -11 = PIT +2 ( -5 ATS ) Warning! At +5 Panthers look like a trap!

Bears -21 vs Browns -21 = CLE 0 ( -4.5 ATS )

Jets 0 vs Eagles -3 = PHI -3 (-2.5 ATS ) Jets are not playing their starters today.

Redskins +12 vs Buccaneers +1 = TBB -11 ( -3 ATS )

49ERS +12 vs Texans -6 = HOU -18 ( -3 ATS )

Ravens +33 vs Saints +15 = NOS -18 ( -3 ATS ) Ravens are not playing their starters today.

Lions +1 vs Bills -18 = BUF -19 ( -4.5 ATS )

Vikings +24 vs Titans +4 = TEN -20 ( -2 ATS )

Cardinals +24 vs Chargers -21 = SDC -25 ( -3 ATS ) (Maybe SDC really is that bad…)

Broncos +38 vs Cowboys -32 = DAL -60 ( +2 ATS ) Broncos are not playing their starters. Confident market read.

Seahawks +50 vs Raiders -13  = OAK -63 ( +5 ATS ) (Maybe OAK really is that bad…)

 

 

 

 

 

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