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Chicago Cubs (Hendricks) vs. St Louis Cardinals (Miller) – Preview August 29th, 2014

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Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 
O/U :7.53.72
Vs.Date: 2014-08-29
Time: 19:15:00Generated from 102 Previous Games
St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals
SIDE :-144
4.01 = 7.73

 

Pick: St Louis Cardinals ML -144 (1 unit)

 

This is definitely a wheelhouse pick.

There is the obvious factor that St Louis is well motivated and steaming ahead towards the playoffs with hopes of the MLB championship on their horizon. With Molina back today, their hitting is back to near 100% and we should expect them to kick it into overdrive. That’s only part of our concern for today’s pick. The other is the market.

Let’s take a look:

Cubs:

Kyle Hendrick
1.95 ERA all season
2.57 ERA on the road
1.65 ERA last 3 games

Cardinals:

Shelby Miller
4.26 ERA all season
4.17 ERA at home
6.35 ERA last 3 games

 

  • CHC is 4-2 L6G
  • STL is 2-4 L6G
  • Cubs are hitting 3.7 RPG L7G
  • Cards are hitting 3.4 RPG L7G
  • Cubs are hitting 3.6 RPG vs RH Starters
  • Cards are 3.7 RPG vs RH Starters
  • Chicago’s Rizzo is a questionable for playing in tonight’s lineup.
  • St Louis’ Molina is expected to return today.

There is nothing about this pitching matchup that should have St Louis as any kind of chalk. Either Vegas is giving away money with the Cubs odds, or, there is more to this!

There is nothing on the surface to come anywhere near justifying this St Louis line. This point begs the question, “then where is the money on STL coming from that it’s deflated so far below what we’d expect to see?”

  • There is no martingale effect from consecutive wins/losses
  • There is no massive population ‘bias betting’ disparity.
  • St Louis with a namebrand consideration could be argued to collect ‘undue’ action, but the 2-4 L6G should greatly mitigate this.

 

ATS MATCHUPS:
Stats to support the St Louis pick:

When ST LOUIS played as a home team – During Last 3 Years – With 4 Under or Less 95 – 49 – 0
When ST LOUIS played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 31 – 18 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 87 – 57 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 4 Under or More 20 – 7 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 4 Under 10 – 2 – 0
When ST LOUIS Played as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 2 Runs or Less 66 – 39 – 0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Playing on Friday – 1st game of a series – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 12-6-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – After a conference game – Vs NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 31-20-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a 4 game under 15-10-0
When ST LOUIS played as Home Favourite- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 45-30-0
When ST LOUIS played as Favourite- Vs NL CENTRAL 18-11-1
When ST LOUIS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – During a night game – Coming off a Road loss as a Favorite – Allowed 3 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 12-2-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road loss 12-6-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Before a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road loss 12-7-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Home team – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – With 1 day off – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series – Coming off a Road loss 7-3-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a Road loss 9-2-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road loss 8-2-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a 2 game losing streak 7-4-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – With 1 day off – During a night game 101-67-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 124-82-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – After a division game – Total is 7.5 11-7-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game 395-237-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Playing on Friday – During a night game 29-19-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is 7.5 101-60-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 158-90-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a home team – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 180-112-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 176-96-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as Road Team- Vs NL CENTRAL 10-27-3
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – After a division game – Playing on Friday – Coming off a 2 game losing streak – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 4-13-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Last 3 years – Scored 2 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 2-8-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a Road loss as a Favorite 4-9-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team – Vs NL Conference – Before a division game – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent – Coming off a 5 run lost 4-10-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a Road team – Vs NL Conference – Before a conference game – Coming off a Road loss – Coming off a 2 game over 11-32-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – During the month of August – Coming off a series loss – Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series 4-14-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 – Last 3 years 44-84-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Friday 12-25-0
When CHICAGO CUBS team played as a road team – Playing on Friday – Total is between 7.5 to 8.0 21-40-0
When CHICAGO CUBS played as a road team – During Last 3 Years – Lost Last Game by 5 Runs 3 – 10 – 0
When CHICAGO CUBS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 5 Years – Lost Last Game by 5 Runs 4 – 11 – 0

Stats to threaten the St Louis pick:

*NONE*

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

CHICAGO CUBSTeam Name: CHICAGO CUBS(Road Team)
Money Line: CHICAGO CUBS +136 vs ST LOUIS -146
Spread Line: CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -165 —– ST LOUIS -1.5 +145
O/U: CHICAGO CUBS 7.5 -105 —– ST LOUIS 7.5 -115
Pitchers: CHICAGO CUBS – K Hendricks (R) vs ST LOUIS – S Miller (R)
Game Date: Friday,August 29 2014 7:15 PM
Last Game: lost 2 – 7 vs Cincinnati Reds
Current Game: St Louis Cardinals
Next Game: At ST LOUIS
Stats & Trends: CHICAGO CUBS vs. ST LOUIS
PVI Rating on Winning: 44.36%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 48.03%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 2 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 39%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 53%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.35
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.58

 

Road Team
(CHICAGO CUBS)
When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When CHICAGO CUBS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 7-15 239-282 38.85 12-10-0 260-261-0 47.78
vs Division opponent 9-23 368-440 36.84 17-12-3 357-393-58 46.89
vs Conference opponent 14-26 409-526 39.37 15-19-6 380-491-64 56.13
Playing in the month of August 7-10 165-252 40.38 7-8-2 169-221-27 55
Playing on Friday 4-9 142-210 35.56 6-5-2 157-168-27 48.57
Played as road Underdog 25-47 594-902 37.22 29-35-8 634-765-97 54.69
After a Division Game 8-22 352-435 35.7 13-13-4 353-381-53 50.96
After a Conference Game 13-25 428-556 38.86 14-19-5 393-525-66 57.39
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 9-23 187-251 35.41 17-12-3 187-223-28 47.89
vs NL Conference Opponent 23-49 511-663 37.74 32-31-9 506-569-99 51.07
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 8-22 187-242 35.13 13-13-4 184-216-29 52
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 21-47 483-645 36.85 31-29-8 482-554-92 50.9
Coming off a 2 losing streak 4-5 118-144 44.74 3-6-0 117-134-11 60.03
Coming off 2 over 2-7 95-120 33.21 4-4-1 103-100-12 49.63
Coming off a lost 20-36 531-722 39.05 23-28-5 498-667-88 56.08
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 3-2 148-141 55.61 2-2-1 107-159-23 54.89
During a night game 15-37 636-840 35.97 22-23-7 627-749-100 52.77
Coming off a 3 road trip (since 1996) 7-5 7-10 49.76 7-5-0 6-10-1 52.09
Coming off a 5 runs loss 2-1 38-34 59.73 2-1-0 26-41-5 47.26
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 8-10 130-163 44.41 5-12-1 125-151-17 62.65
Coming off a score 7 runs AGAINST in last game 2-1 55-69 55.51 1-2-0 47-70-7 63.25
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 9-21 367-485 36.54 15-10-5 366-425-61 46.87
vs ST LOUIS (since 1996) 50-91 26-41 37.14 58-75-8 30-32-5 54
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 8-16 109-140 38.56 10-11-3 99-129-21 54.48
Coming off a day game 10-19 325-404 39.53 13-13-3 313-373-43 52.19
Coming off a series loss 8-12 169-268 39.34 10-8-2 185-218-34 49.27
Last 30 days 7-10 177-266 40.57 7-8-2 183-233-27 54.67
Last 45 days 7-13 257-363 38.23 9-9-2 247-334-39 53.75
Last 60 days 12-20 345-493 39.34 15-15-2 343-443-52 53.18
Last 90 days 18-28 554-729 41.16 22-20-4 530-670-83 51.73
Vs. Right handed pitchers 20-45 676-898 36.86 26-33-6 676-802-96 55.1
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 21-44 693-890 38.05 27-30-8 644-829-110 54.46
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 18-28 394-515 41.24 20-22-4 355-492-62 55.24

 

ST LOUISTeam Name: ST LOUIS(Home Team)
Money Line: ST LOUIS -146 vs CHICAGO CUBS +136
Spread Line: ST LOUIS -1.5 +145 —– CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 -165
O/U: ST LOUIS 7.5 -115 —– CHICAGO CUBS 7.5 -105
Pitchers: ST LOUIS – S Miller (R) vs CHICAGO CUBS – K Hendricks (R)
Game Date: Friday,August 29 2014 7:15 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Current Game: Chicago Cubs
Next Game: Vs. CHICAGO CUBS
Stats & Trends: ST LOUIS vs. CHICAGO CUBS
PVI Rating on Winning: 53.79%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.23%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 75.51%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 4 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 56%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 56%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.6
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.85

 

Home Team
(ST LOUIS)
When ST LOUIS is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When ST LOUIS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7.5 19-12 268-253 56.37 11-20-0 260-261-0 57.31
vs Division opponent 17-9 377-431 56.02 17-8-1 357-393-58 42.2
vs Conference opponent 19-12 459-476 55.19 9-19-3 380-491-64 62.12
Playing in the month of August 10-4 207-210 60.54 7-6-1 169-221-27 51.41
Playing on Friday 6-5 169-183 51.28 3-7-1 157-168-27 60.85
Played as home Favorite 36-26 769-681 55.55 28-29-5 634-721-95 52.05
After a Division Game 17-9 377-430 56.05 16-8-2 344-404-59 43.67
After a Conference Game 19-14 493-480 54.13 10-20-3 393-515-65 61.7
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 17-9 220-218 57.81 17-8-1 191-223-24 42.93
vs NL Conference Opponent 36-21 576-584 56.41 26-27-4 481-584-95 52.89
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 17-9 228-214 58.48 16-8-2 190-222-30 43.61
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 36-23 584-602 55.13 27-28-4 497-594-95 52.68
Coming off a 2 losing streak 4-4 115-115 50 4-4-0 95-126-9 53.51
Coming off 4 under 1-0 37-34 76.06 0-1-0 29-39-3 78.68
Coming off a lost 17-11 568-622 54.22 13-13-2 490-618-82 52.89
Coming off a Road Lost as a Favorite 3-0 24-32 71.43 1-2-0 25-28-3 59.75
With 1 days off 3-2 101-108 54.17 2-3-0 93-100-16 55.91
During a night game 25-20 695-781 51.33 19-22-4 627-749-100 54.05
Coming off a 6 road trip 2-1 34-38 56.95 2-1-0 29-39-4 45.34
Coming off a 2 runs loss 1-1 85-93 48.88 1-1-0 87-86-5 49.86
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 6-2 109-102 63.33 1-6-1 84-113-14 71.54
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 3-3 142-144 49.83 1-4-1 137-136-13 64.91
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 13-12 447-448 50.97 9-13-3 380-451-64 56.68
vs CHICAGO CUBS (since 1996) 90-51 41-40 57.23 58-75-8 35-37-9 53.89
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 8-2 126-110 66.7 7-2-1 100-121-15 38.49
Coming off a day game 15-9 319-368 54.47 11-10-3 289-355-43 51.37
Coming off a series loss 7-4 186-220 54.73 5-4-2 185-187-34 47.36
Last 30 days 10-4 221-222 60.66 7-6-1 183-233-27 51.08
Last 45 days 12-7 310-310 56.58 9-9-1 247-334-39 53.75
Last 60 days 16-10 417-421 55.65 13-12-1 343-443-52 52.18
Last 90 days 24-16 621-662 54.2 15-22-3 530-670-83 57.65
Vs. Right handed pitchers 34-22 753-847 53.89 25-26-5 701-802-97 52.17
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 7-3 290-298 59.66 3-5-2 268-277-43 56.67
Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher 4-3 156-142 54.75 3-3-1 142-137-19 49.55

 

 

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