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Washington Nationals (Strasburg) vs. Seattle Mariners (Elias) – Preview for August 30th, 2014

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Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 
SIDE :-115

3.44

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-30
Time: 20:10:00

Generated from 20 Previous Games

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
O/U :6.5

2.39 = 5.83

 

Pick: Washington Nationals ML -115 (1u)

 

The power of ATSSTATS makes our case for us today.

 

ATS FORECAST (edge WSH +1.05)

 

 

ATS P.V.I. (no edge)

Washington 0.55
Seattle 0.56

 

 

ATS MATCHUPS (edge to WSH in all 3 areas)

Stats to support Washington:

When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 24 – 7 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as a Favorite – During Last 5 Years – With 1 Under or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 12 – 7 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as road team as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With 1 Under 20 – 6 – 0
When WASHINGTON played as any home/road team – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Under or Less – With SU Record of 2 Win 5 Lost in L7G 9 – 6 – 0

 

Stats to support Seattle:

When SEATTLE Played as home team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 4 Lost in L5G 20 – 6 – 0

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT (edge WSH)

WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Road Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -129 vs SEATTLE +119
Spread Line: WASHINGTON -1.5 +130 —– SEATTLE +1.5 -150
O/U: WASHINGTON 6.5 -115 —– SEATTLE 6.5 -105
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – S Strasburg (R) vs SEATTLE – C Young (R)
Game Date: Saturday,August 30 2014 8:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Seattle Mariners
Current Game: Seattle Mariners
Next Game: At SEATTLE
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. SEATTLE
PVI Rating on Winning: 56.82%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.83%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 47%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.03
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.49

 

Road Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 6.5 6-3 58-79 54.51 6-3-0 65-72-0 42.94
vs Non-Division opponent 20-19 581-791 46.82 13-21-5 565-719-88 58.88
vs Non-Conference opponent 2-4 172-263 36.44 3-2-1 183-228-24 47.74
Playing in the month of August 5-5 172-262 44.82 4-5-1 176-230-28 56.11
Playing on Saturday 4-7 144-195 39.42 5-5-1 157-167-15 50.77
Played as road Favorite 21-19 354-328 52.21 19-19-2 284-349-49 52.57
After a Non-Division Game 18-22 590-789 43.89 15-20-5 560-726-93 56.8
After a Non-Conference Game 2-4 171-250 36.98 3-2-1 181-214-26 47.09
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 13-14 156-243 43.63 17-9-1 160-186-53 44.19
vs NL Conference Opponent 31-29 513-671 47.5 27-28-5 509-575-100 51.98
Coming off vs AL WEST Division Opponent 1-2 136-179 38.25 2-0-1 120-170-25 29.31
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 2-4 460-579 38.8 3-2-1 431-554-54 48.12
Coming off 2 over 2-5 96-121 36.41 3-4-0 104-101-12 53.21
Coming off a win 15-15 418-510 47.52 15-14-1 421-449-58 49.95
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 2-5 201-271 35.58 5-2-0 224-222-26 39.18
During a night game 24-24 643-850 46.54 22-22-4 634-758-101 52.23
Coming off a 4 road trip 1-1 15-16 49.2 1-1-0 13-15-3 51.79
Coming off a 5 runs win 1-0 40-52 71.74 1-0-0 39-45-8 26.79
Coming off a score 8 runs FOR in last game (since 1996) 31-36 34-42 45.51 32-33-2 43-29-4 45.53
Coming off a score 3 runs AGAINST in last game 6-4 132-155 53 4-3-3 124-144-19 48.3
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 6-13 370-491 37.28 7-11-1 370-429-62 57.4
vs SEATTLE (since 1996) 6-4 35-51 50.35 4-6-0 24-55-7 64.81
Coming off a Win over AL WEST division opponent (since 1996) 7-4 56-58 56.38 4-6-1 52-58-4 56.37
Coming off a night game 20-24 618-824 44.16 20-19-5 602-737-103 51.88
Coming off a game 1 of a series 8-12 291-326 43.58 6-11-3 274-310-33 58.9
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 6-6 129-136 49.34 4-8-0 124-129-12 58.83
Last 30 days 5-5 179-266 45.11 4-5-1 183-234-28 55.84
Last 45 days 10-9 264-373 47.04 6-11-2 254-343-40 61.08
Last 60 days 13-11 348-494 47.75 9-13-2 347-443-52 57.59
Last 90 days 22-20 555-730 47.79 17-22-3 529-672-84 56.18
Vs. Right handed pitchers 23-23 680-908 46.41 22-22-2 681-810-97 52.17
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 24-31 698-897 43.7 27-22-6 650-835-110 50.57
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 10-12 297-369 45.02 8-14-0 288-338-40 58.82
TEAM: WASHINGTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.11 3.37
Home Games Avg 4.39 3.23
Road Games Avg 3.8 3.53
Last 3 Games Avg 2.33 4
Last 5 Games Avg 4.6 4.2
Last 10 Games Avg 4.4 3.6
vs. Division Games Avg 4.3 3.6
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.19 3.27
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.63 4
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.64 4.25
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.71 3.41
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.82 2.84
After a Win Games Avg 4.05 3.6
After a Lost Games Avg 4.07 2.88
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.69 3.84
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.47 3.28
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.33 3.42
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.84 2.36
After an Over Games Avg 4 3.11
After an Under Games Avg 4.14 3.48
After a Push Games Avg 4.15 3.92
4.03 3.49
SEATTLETeam Name: SEATTLE(Home Team)
Money Line: SEATTLE +119 vs WASHINGTON -129
Spread Line: SEATTLE +1.5 -150 —– WASHINGTON -1.5 +130
O/U: SEATTLE 6.5 -105 —– WASHINGTON 6.5 -115
Pitchers: SEATTLE – C Young (R) vs WASHINGTON – S Strasburg (R)
Game Date: Saturday,August 30 2014 8:10 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Washington Nationals
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: Vs. WASHINGTON
Stats & Trends: SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.2%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 58.06%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 53.06%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 43%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 43%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 2.74
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.49
Home Team
(SEATTLE)
When SEATTLE is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When SEATTLE is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 6.5 6-9 73-64 46.64 4-11-0 65-72-0 62.94
vs Non-Division opponent 25-36 665-707 44.73 15-40-6 565-719-88 64.37
vs Non-Conference opponent 8-15 204-231 40.84 4-15-4 183-228-24 67.21
Playing in the month of August 9-8 215-219 51.24 6-10-1 176-230-28 59.58
Playing on Saturday 4-7 176-163 44.14 3-7-1 157-167-15 60.77
Played as home Underdog 10-22 272-457 34.28 6-24-2 284-394-51 69.06
After a Non-Division Game 24-35 655-700 44.51 14-39-6 568-701-86 64.41
After a Non-Conference Game 7-12 193-246 40.4 5-11-3 189-222-28 61.38
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 3-6 178-209 39.66 2-6-1 157-183-47 64.41
vs NL Conference Opponent 8-15 582-587 42.29 4-15-4 484-589-96 66.92
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 2-6 185-214 35.69 3-5-0 167-193-39 58.06
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-12 590-604 43.13 5-11-3 499-599-96 61.65
Coming off 1 over 6-11 235-277 40.6 6-10-1 229-249-34 57.3
Coming off a lost 25-34 571-630 44.96 15-41-3 494-624-83 64.51
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 10-12 290-285 47.94 2-19-1 254-293-28 72.02
During a night game 25-40 703-790 42.78 20-41-4 634-758-101 60.83
Coming off a 7 home stand 1-0 12-10 77.28 0-0-1 11-10-1 23.81
Coming off a 5 runs loss 2-1 52-33 63.93 0-3-0 40-39-6 74.69
Coming off a score 3 runs FOR in last game 5-6 133-154 45.9 4-6-1 122-141-24 56.81
Coming off a score 8 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 34-43 22.08 0-1-0 39-32-6 72.54
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 10-13 407-461 45.19 8-13-2 364-452-52 58.65
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 4-6 32-34 44.24 4-6-0 30-30-6 55
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 1-6 104-137 28.72 2-5-0 93-123-25 64.19
Coming off a game that went over 6-11 235-277 40.6 6-10-1 229-249-34 57.3
Coming off a night game 23-38 718-767 43.03 15-40-6 626-756-103 63.72
Coming off a game 1 of a series 7-15 295-323 39.78 5-14-3 274-311-33 63.42
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 3-6 139-161 39.83 1-8-0 135-151-14 70.85
Coming off back to back Shutouts offense 7-17 49-99 31.14 7-15-2 50-84-14 65.44
Last 30 days 9-8 219-226 51.08 6-10-1 183-234-28 59.31
Last 45 days 11-15 318-319 46.12 6-19-1 254-343-40 66.73
Last 60 days 14-19 419-423 46.09 8-24-1 347-443-52 65.54
Last 90 days 22-30 620-665 45.28 12-37-3 529-672-84 65.73
Vs. Right handed pitchers 18-37 760-855 39.9 16-37-2 707-810-98 61.6
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 26-37 747-833 44.28 20-38-5 647-831-102 60.87
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 18-25 404-478 43.83 13-28-2 344-476-62 63.17
TEAM: SEATTLE
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.08 2.51
Home Games Avg 2.9 2.56
Road Games Avg 3.26 2.46
Last 3 Games Avg 1.33 4
Last 5 Games Avg 1.8 2.4
Last 10 Games Avg 2.4 2.3
vs. Division Games Avg 3.14 2.67
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.2 2.55
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 2.33 2.25
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.18 2.54
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.15 2.5
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 2.98 2.5
After a Win Games Avg 2.55 2.14
After a Lost Games Avg 2.67 2.47
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 2.25 2.06
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.15 2.62
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 2.86 2.23
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 2.29 2.35
After an Over Games Avg 2.44 2.02
After an Under Games Avg 3.31 2.76
After a Push Games Avg 3.18 2.36
2.74 2.49

 

 

ATS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (edge WSH)

NATIONALS 76 – 57 57.14 42.86 48.94 0.53 3 – 4 42.86 57.14 63.26 0.53 10 – 4 71.43 28.57 47.45 0.59
MARINERS 71 – 61 53.79 46.21 49.83 0.52 4 – 3 57.14 42.86 48.98 0.53 8 – 6 57.14 42.86 48.47 0.53

4 teams have 10 wins L14G.
WSH (59)
CLE (58)
ATL (55)
LAA (54).

WSH was the strongest comparative L14G SOS rating.

8 teams have 3 wins L7G.
NYM (54)
WSH (53)
ARI
KCR
MIN
OAK
COL (45)
BOS (42)

Again, Washington is nearly the strongest SOS in the 3-4 L7G category.
Seattle is mid-far in both categories.

 

 

Let’s look at how the stats stack up:

HITTING

The Washing Nationals are hitting some serious ball in their last 7 games. They are clocking 5.7 RPG which is 1.4 runs above their season average of 4.3.

The Seattle Mariners are hitting some good ball as well. They are 4.6 RPG last 7 games. which is 0.6 RPG above their season RPG average.

Nationals are 4.3 RPG all season.
Nationals are 4.0 on the road.
Nationals are 4.5 vs Left Handed Starters.

Mariners are 4.0 RPG all season.
Mariners are 3.6 at home.
Mariners are 4.1 vs Right Handed Starters.

PITCHING

Nationals’ bullpen is 2.95 ERA all season.
Nationals’ bullpen is 3.12 ERA on the road.

Mariners’ bullpen is 2.40 ERA all season.
Mariners’ bullpen is 2.38 ERA at home.

 

Strasburg is 3.59 ERA all season.
Strasburg is 4.77 ERA on the road.
Strasburg is 2.84 ERA last 3 games.

Elias is 3.95 ERA all season.
Elias is 4.33 ERA at home.
Elias is 2.45 ERA last 3 games.

To sum up the practical chances, both of these teams seem perfectly equal statistically speaking, but where we find consistent and clandestine advantages is within the atsstats database categories.

 

UMPIRE

Umpire Cory Blaser calls mostly games that go UNDER with an OU record of 7-13.

This would imply a large strikezone, but both Elias and Strasburg throw the exact same pitches which are the 4-seamers, 2-seamers, Changeup, Curveball.

It should be noted that Strasburg has a much higher strike % for each of these pitches so we would think that a SMALLER SZ would give him the better advantage vs less accurate Elias. So we can count this as a small bonus for Elias. But aside from that, whiff, foul, and in play categories are virtually the same.

 

 

 

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