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Colorado Rockies (De La Rosa) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Anderson) – Preview August 31st, 2014

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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 
O/U :8

6.43

Vs.

Date: 2014-08-31
Time: 15:10:00

Generated from 46 Previous Games

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
SIDE :-114

4.57 = 11

Pick: Total to go UNDER 8

 

Despite the forecast for today’s game, we see many ‘game-specific’ indications to the contrary.

Summary:

Cold bats don’t typically go over the total regardless of the quality of pitching.
Considering that these pitchers are not only decent in general but both have solid track records against their opponents, we like the UNDER 8 and have strong confidence in this going under the total.

Although not strong, the wind is blowing straight in the hitters’ face which will produce some hits to the warning track vs the ball going over the wall.

Umpire Alfonso Marquez has one of the most liberal strikezones in the league. Marquez is 3-10 with 76.9% of his games going UNDER the total.

De La Rosa throws Fastballs Cutters, Sliders and Curves but his #1 pitch is the Splitter. With a big Strike-Zone, he can have the Diamondbacks taking cuts at nothing but air.

Anderson throws mainly Fastballs and Curves. With a bigger SZ, he can put some serious slop on the Curve and cause the Rockies to whiff more than normal.

The bonus factor here, of course, is that once the batters and pitchers sort out that there is a bigger Strike-Zone in play, it will cause the hitters to feel the need to swing at anything close and will cause the pitchers to manipulate this by painting the edges and throwing out or in.

I suspect De La Rosa already throws a deadly cutter. If he’s allowed space on the outside, it could be the most effective pitch in his arsenal today.

This isn’t to mitigate Anderson’s Curveball either if Marquez’s zone allows a few more inches on the bottom.

 

 

STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS:

  • De La Rosa is 8-7 vs Arizona with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.246 WHIP.

  • Anderson is 2-0 vs Colorado with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.917 WHIP.

 

  • 6 of De La Rosa’s last 10 games have been 2 or less ER
  • 5 of Anderson’s last 8 games have been 2 or less ER.
  • Colorado’s last 6 games are 6-0 UNDER the total.
  • Arizona’s last 9 games have gone 7-2 UNDER the total.
  • Colorado has scored only 2.4 RPG last 7 games.
  • Colorado has allowed only 3.1 RPG last 7 games.
  • Arizona has scored only 3.6 RPG last 7 games.
  • Arizona has scored only 3.7 RPG last 7 games.
  • COL RF/RA (5.5) 2.5 UNDER the total of 8.
  • ARI RF/RA (7.3) 0.7 UNDER the total of 8.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

According to ATS Matchups Green+Blue stars are 18-4 that this goes UNDER the total.

Stats to SUPPORT the UNDER:

When COLORADO played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With 6 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 3 – 15 – 1
When COLORADO Played as a Underdog – During Last 4 Years – With 6 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 2 Runs or More – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 4 – 11 – 1
When COLORADO Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 2 Years – With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G 20 – 31 – 4
When COLORADO played as Road Underdog- in the month of August 15-29-6
When COLORADO team played as a Road team – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 10-19-3
When COLORADO team played as a 100 to 120 Road Underdog – Before a division game – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 16-26-3
When COLORADO team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Sunday – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Coming off a Road win – Coming off a 1 game win 4-8-0
When ARIZONA team played as a -100 to -120 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a Home loss 1-9-0
When COLORADO team played as a road team – During the month of August – Last 3 years 16-36-6
When COLORADO team Played as road team as a Underdog – Playing on Sunday – Before a conference game 37-62-5
When COLORADO team Played as road team as a Underdog – Total is 8.5 – Playing on Sunday 13-26-0
When ARIZONA team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Vs. Left handed pitchers 10-16-2
When ARIZONA team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – Vs. Left handed pitchers – During a day game 2-11-1
When ARIZONA team Played as home team as a Favorite – During a day game – Total is 8.5 15-23-0
When ARIZONA team played as a -100 to -120 home Favorite – 3rd game of a series – During a day game 12-23-2
When ANY MLB Team played as a 100 to 120 Road Underdog – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Playing on Sunday – Before a conference game – Scored 2 or more runs FOR in their last game – Coming off a 2 run win 9-16-1
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a day game – 3rd game of a series – Playing on Sunday – Coming off lost vs. Left handed pitcher – Allowed 2 runs AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a 1 game loss 8-12-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Sunday – 3rd game of a series – During a day game – Coming off a 3 game under – Coming off a Home loss – Coming off a 2 run lost 5-11-2

 

Stats to THREATEN the UNDER:

When COLORADO played as Underdog- Vs ARIZONA 7-4-4
When ARIZONA played as Home Favourite- Vs NL WEST 10-6-4
When COLORADO team played as a 100 to 120 road Underdog – During a day game – Total is 8.5 16-9-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -100 to -120 Home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs NL WEST opponent – Total is between 8.5 to 9.0 – Coming off a 2 run lost – Coming off a Loss vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off a night game 11-6-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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