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San Francisco Giants (Hudson) vs. Colorado Rockies (Morales) – Preview for September 1st, 2014

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San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants 
SIDE :-135

5.36

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-01
Time: 16:20:00

Generated from 19 Previous Games

Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
O/U :10

3.62 = 8.98

 

Pick: Colorado ML +125

In today’s contest, we have to look at a few things that tend to affect wagers.

First and foremost is the sharp money. We not only predict sharp action on the Rockies based on where the ML is at, but we see a massive steam against San Francisco at about 10:00AM EST confirming where the sharp money is at.

Colorado is Powerrated at +150, the line has them set at +125. That’s a huge difference and could mean that there is clandestine action on the Rockies’ ML.

 

Let’s look at the stats and figure out what it is, exactly, that we’re dealing with here.
San Francisco Giants have been knocking ’em out of the park lately. They are marking 6.3 RPG on offense last 7 games; and, they’re only allowing 2.0 RAPG last 7 games. These numbers are HUGE numbers to put up across a 7 game stretch.

It indicates that the Giants are firing on all cylinders and it indicates that standard fare would be to add them to a parlay, especially getting that kind of solidity at -135. That’s basically a steal.

This is not at all the case with Colorado. They are marking a dismal 1.7 RPG L7G, and a moderate 3.4 RAPG L7G. So this translates to a toothless team that’s in a nasty cooler on offense, but at least not allowing too many runs either.

The Giants continue to have one of the best pens in the league marking a 2.84 ERA and that’s compared to the Rockies’ 4.94 ERA and even worse 5.39 ERA at home.

 

SFG’s Hudson is 2.90 ERA all season.
SFG’s Hudson is 2.35 ERA on the road.
SFG’s Hudson is 3.64 ERA last 3 games.

COL’s Morales is 5.14 ERA all season.
COL’s Morales is 5.14 ERA at home.
COL’s Morales is 5.06 ERA last 3 games.

So this is absolutely no contest in all variations.

On paper, there should be no chance at a Colorado victory and we see just about nothing to make us think that Colorado could have any kind of a chance here.

SFG is 6-0 L6G.
COL is 1-5 L6G.

So let’s look at value here…

ML is set at COL +125
Powerline is set at COL +150
Our own judgement has this at COL +175

No wonder San Francisco has 80% of the public action. It’s a steal!

 

There are a few practical points in favour with Colorado.

  • Colorado averages 5.9 RPG all season when playing at home.
  • While San Francisco is 4.1 RPG all games, they are only 3.5 vs LH Starters.
  • Colorado is far more effective at home.

 

Based on the experience we’ve had with lines that look like a steal.
Based on the fact that San Francisco betting bias should deflate the SFG line but does not.
Based on our experience of the “statistical chances to win vs the odds offered by the books”…

This is Colorado’s game to win and it must be where the sharps have their money.

ATS Matchups and ATS Raymond Report both show about even chances with the Giants slightly ahead.

Our only real threat is the fact that Giants have 6 straight wins and that could explain why there is more action on the Rockies than deserved, and that would be a fair explanation for a 10%-15% Colorado deflation from the Moneyline and the Powerline, but it doesn’t explain a 25% difference much less our projected 50% difference.

This is too good to be true and it’s the reason the sharps didn’t bet the value on Seattle.
Why take 30% inflation on a 50/50 when you can just snatch up value on a lock and call it a day?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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