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Boston Red Sox (Workman) vs. New York Yankees (Capuano) – Preview for September 4th, 2014

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Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 
O/U :8.54.65
Vs.Date: 2014-09-04
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 40 Previous Games

New York Yankees
New York Yankees
SIDE :-145
4.87 = 9.52

 

Pick: New York Yankees ML -145

 

Today, New York looks to close out this series in the positive. They are tied 1-1 with Boston, so far, and want to face the Royals with momentum. I don’t get the feeling that they’ll be happy with a win, I get the feeling that they’ll be wanting to make a statement as they prepare to meet Kansas City, who are the number 1 top dog in the central division..

Capuano posts wretched numbers vs. Left Handed Hitters (7.04 ERA) but that means at 4.24 ERA he throws fire vs RHH (2.98 ERA).

Boston’s only real established Left-Handed threats are Ortiz, Nava, and Holt. All 3 should be dressed tonight. With that said, Nava is the only one of the 3 that’s posted respectable numbers lats 7 games:
Nava (.364 AVG) (.962 OPS)
Holt (.154 AVG) (.377 OPS)
Ortiz (.105 AVG) (.333 OPS)

So while these teams could be argued that they’re somewhat evenish, it’s clear when we start reading between the lines that this is the Red Sox’s case to prove, not the Yankees’.

  • Boston is 6-10 when playing on Thursdays
  • New York is 12-4 when playing on Thursdays

On the surface, the hitting between these teams is effectively comparable in all categories, all season, L7G, vs R/L Hand Starters, so these obvious considerations don’t really factor into things.

Where these teams differ a little bit and part ways is in the pitching:

Boston’s Workman is:
4.93 ERA all season.
7.47 ERA last 3 games.

New York’s Capuano is:
4.24 ERA all season.
4.59 last 3 games.

To bring this into focus, Workman has allowed 13 ER L3G while Capuano has allowed only 9 ER L3G. Neither is great, but at least the Yankees’ Capuano is faced in the better direction of late compared to Workman.

Let’s finish by taking a quick look at what ATS Stats has to say about tonight’s contest:

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT:

BOSTONTeam Name: BOSTON(Road Team)
Money Line: BOSTON +139 vs NY YANKEES -149
Spread Line: BOSTON +1.5 -155 —– NY YANKEES -1.5 +135
O/U: BOSTON 9 -110 —– NY YANKEES 9 -110
Pitchers: BOSTON – B Workman (R) vs NY YANKEES – C Capuano (L)
Game Date: Thursday,September 04 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: lost 1 – 5 vs New York Yankees
Current Game: New York Yankees
Next Game: Vs. TORONTO
Stats & Trends: BOSTON vs. NY YANKEES
PVI Rating on Winning: 43.88%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 56.72%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 38.78%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 1 Under
Road Teams % of winning this game: 42%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 59%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.26
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.7

Road Team
(BOSTON)
When BOSTON is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When BOSTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 7-3 102-103 59.88 4-5-1 78-108-19 56.81
vs Division opponent 15-20 396-484 43.93 12-21-2 386-429-65 58.14
vs Conference opponent 10-22 412-536 37.36 12-19-1 387-497-64 58.76
Playing in the month of September 1-2 17-28 35.56 1-2-0 22-18-5 55.84
Playing on Thursday 2-5 105-134 36.25 0-5-2 102-122-15 77.23
Played as road Underdog 23-37 621-949 38.94 19-37-4 667-802-101 60.33
After a Division Game 14-20 379-477 42.73 12-20-2 384-413-59 57.16
After a Conference Game 12-23 431-567 38.74 14-20-1 402-530-66 57.85
vs AL EAST Division Opponent 15-20 169-197 44.52 12-21-2 144-205-17 61.19
vs AL Conference Opponent 25-42 454-588 40.44 24-40-3 430-564-48 59.62
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 14-20 163-207 42.62 12-20-2 150-201-19 59.88
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 27-42 474-598 41.68 26-40-3 446-571-55 58.38
Coming off 1 under 13-11 246-337 48.19 10-14-0 228-311-44 58.02
Coming off a lost 23-29 553-759 43.19 18-31-3 523-696-93 60.19
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 16-19 327-497 42.7 14-20-1 335-432-57 57.57
During a night game 23-37 661-880 40.61 21-36-3 652-784-105 58.88
Coming off a 9 road trip (since 1996) 6-11 10-25 31.93 7-8-2 12-21-2 58.49
Coming off a 4 runs loss 1-1 49-57 48.12 1-1-0 54-48-4 48.53
Coming off a score 1 runs FOR in last game 4-1 106-143 61.29 2-3-0 100-131-18 58.36
Coming off a score 5 runs AGAINST in last game 3-1 109-145 58.96 2-2-0 113-124-17 51.16
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 19-25 385-518 42.91 16-25-3 387-454-62 57.48
vs NY YANKEES (since 1996) 77-86 32-37 46.81 78-79-6 22-44-3 58.5
Coming off a Lost over AL EAST division opponent 10-11 90-120 45.24 7-12-2 82-121-7 61.39
Coming off a game that went under 4-15 240-289 33.21 4-13-2 225-263-41 65.18
Coming off a night game 22-32 633-862 41.54 18-32-4 620-767-108 59.65
Split 1st 2 games of a series 5-9 140-210 37.86 3-10-1 135-194-21 67.95
Coming off a lost in game 2 of a series 4-10 14.29 6-8-0 28.57
Last 30 days 10-7 177-286 48.53 5-11-1 184-249-30 63.13
Last 45 days 12-12 275-397 45.46 9-13-2 268-360-44 58.21
Last 60 days 14-15 347-500 44.63 11-16-2 345-450-52 57.93
Last 90 days 20-30 546-752 41.03 18-29-3 530-685-83 59.04
Vs. Left handed pitchers 10-14 281-343 43.35 6-16-2 251-322-51 64.47
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 26-36 718-938 42.65 24-35-3 677-864-115 57.7
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 16-17 409-546 45.66 11-20-2 372-517-66 61.34

 

NY YANKEESTeam Name: NY YANKEES(Home Team)
Money Line: NY YANKEES -149 vs BOSTON +139
Spread Line: NY YANKEES -1.5 +135 —– BOSTON +1.5 -155
O/U: NY YANKEES 9 -110 —– BOSTON 9 -110
Pitchers: NY YANKEES – C Capuano (L) vs BOSTON – B Workman (R)
Game Date: Thursday,September 04 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 1 – 5 vs Boston Red Sox
Current Game: Boston Red Sox
Next Game: Vs. KANSAS CITY
Stats & Trends: NY YANKEES vs. BOSTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 51.82%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 58.65%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 49%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 49%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.82
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 4.01

 

Home Team
(NY YANKEES)
When NY YANKEES is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When NY YANKEES is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 9 6-7 92-113 45.52 3-8-2 78-108-19 65.4
vs Division opponent 12-15 414-466 45.75 11-13-3 386-429-65 53.41
vs Conference opponent 14-13 469-479 50.66 7-20-0 387-497-64 65.15
Playing in the month of September 1-1 25-20 52.78 1-1-0 22-18-5 47.5
Playing on Thursday 6-1 117-122 67.33 1-6-0 102-122-15 70.09
Played as home Favorite 30-24 810-711 54.41 17-35-2 667-756-98 60.22
After a Division Game 12-17 416-466 44.28 11-15-3 376-440-66 55.81
After a Conference Game 14-13 504-484 51.43 8-19-0 402-521-65 63.41
vs AL EAST Division Opponent 12-15 169-198 45.25 11-13-3 158-196-13 54.77
vs AL Conference Opponent 26-28 487-572 47.07 18-33-3 454-553-52 59.82
Coming off vs AL EAST Division Opponent 12-17 167-197 43.63 11-15-3 153-194-17 56.8
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent 26-28 471-548 47.19 19-32-3 433-535-51 59.01
Coming off 1 under 5-10 265-316 39.47 3-12-0 233-312-36 68.63
Coming off a win 19-17 497-527 50.66 12-24-0 448-511-65 59.98
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 14-12 342-308 53.24 10-16-0 288-319-43 57.05
During a night game 18-24 727-814 45.02 15-27-0 652-784-105 59.45
Coming off a 2 home stand 1-1 26-29 48.64 0-2-0 19-32-4 81.38
Coming off a 4 runs win 2-1 50-59 56.27 1-2-0 48-55-6 60.04
Coming off a score 5 runs FOR in last game 5-4 118-122 52.37 4-5-0 101-123-16 55.24
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 6-4 124-117 55.73 2-8-0 109-113-19 65.45
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 18-23 468-469 46.93 14-26-1 398-471-68 59.6
vs BOSTON (since 1996) 86-77 38-43 49.84 78-79-6 29-48-4 56.33
Coming off a Win over AL EAST division opponent 7-9 71-100 42.64 6-10-0 73-95-3 59.53
Coming off a game that went under 8-9 245-285 46.65 6-11-0 235-260-35 58.62
Coming off a night game 24-22 752-791 50.46 12-33-1 647-788-108 64.12
Split 1st 2 games of a series 5-9 172-182 42.15 4-8-2 137-196-21 62.77
Coming off a win in game 2 of a series 6-4 153-157 54.68 3-7-0 135-158-17 61.96
Last 30 days 8-6 231-232 53.52 4-10-0 184-249-30 64.47
Last 45 days 13-9 334-338 54.4 6-15-1 268-360-44 64.38
Last 60 days 16-9 424-423 57.03 7-17-1 345-450-52 63.72
Last 90 days 21-16 638-660 52.96 10-24-3 530-685-83 63.49
Vs. Right handed pitchers 25-22 796-879 50.36 15-30-2 727-844-104 60.2
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 25-24 783-862 49.31 15-33-1 669-868-108 62.61
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 15-14 363-375 50.46 9-20-0 319-370-49 61.34

 

ATS MATCHUPS:
Stats to SUPPORT the Yankees:

When CAPUANO CHRIS ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0 24-16-0
When NY YANKEES played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 12-8-0
When CAPUANO CHRIS ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 12-8-0
When CAPUANO CHRIS ‘s Team played as Home Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 13-8-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Playing on Thursday – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Home win 16-5-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a Home win 16-8-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent 10-2-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a 4 run win – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game 13-1-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 16-8-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a Home team – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win 12-8-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Vs AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off 1 under 25-10-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – After a division game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a Win vs. AL EAST opponent 55-32-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – During the month of September – Vs AL EAST opponent 95-54-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Playing on Thursday – Before a conference game 69-32-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – During the month of September – During a night game 88-47-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – During the month of September – Vs AL EAST opponent 103-66-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Playing on Thursday – Vs Division Opponent 47-30-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs AL Conference – During a night game 451-260-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Playing on Thursday 14-3-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs Division Opponent 253-157-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – Playing on Thursday – During the month of September 17-9-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Vs AL EAST opponent 277-179-0
When NY YANKEES team Played as home team as a Favorite – After a division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers 257-163-0
When NY YANKEES team played as a home team – After a division game – During the month of September 106-61-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Vs AL Conference – Playing on Thursday – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off 1 under – Scored 5 or less runs FOR in their last game – Allowed 1 runs or more AGAINST in their last game 20-11-0
When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Thursday – 3rd game of a series – During a night game – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 96-62-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Coming off vs. American League opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite – Allowed 1 runs AGAINST in their last game 63-41-0
When NY YANKEES Played as a Favorite – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 96 – 55 – 0
When NY YANKEES Played as home team as a Favorite – During Current Season – With 1 Under or More 20 – 12 – 0
When NY YANKEES played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 4 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 9 – 5 – 0
When NY YANKEES played as any home/road team – During Last 2 Years – With 1 Under – Won Last Game by 4 Runs or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 9 – 5 – 0
When BOSTON played as Road Underdog- With Total between 8.5 and 9.0 17-32-1
When BOSTON team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Before a conference game – Scored 1 or less runs FOR in their last game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 10-19-0
When BOSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – Before a conference game 28-54-0

 

 

Stats to THREATEN the Yankees:

When ANY MLB Team played as a 120 to 140 Road Underdog – After a division game – Vs AL EAST opponent – Coming off a 4 run lost – Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 13-8-0
When BOSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – After a division game – Last 2 years 9-4-0
When BOSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – Vs Division Opponent 26-15-0
When BOSTON team played as a Road team – Vs AL Conference – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 45-24-0

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