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Generated from 51 Previous Games
3.33 = 7
Pick: Astros@Mariners UNDER 7
With Houston’s Collin McHugh pitching pure fire and with Seattle’s Roenis Elias keeping pace, this contest promises to go UNDER the total.
McHugh is marking:
2.89 ERA all season.
1.96 ERA on the road.
2.25 ERA last 3 games.
Elias is marking:
3.84 ERA all season.
4.23 ERA at home.
2.25 ERA last 3 games.
- These teams have had 6 battles in Houston so far this season, 4 of them have gone UNDER the total. This is indicative of these clubs’ pitchers knowing the hitters and being able to dominate them from the mound.
- Umpire Jeff Nelson’s games go UNDER to the tune of 14-9 indicating a large Strike Zone giving good pitchers an easier time picking corners and incapacitating the batters’ ability to visualize the next pitch.
- McHugh throws plenty of jump with his Slider being his go-to pitch and his Curveball and 4-Seamer as his secondaries.
- Elias throws the 4-Seamer as primary but has his Curveball as his secondary.
Depending on what the ump lets these guys get away with, McHugh could do better than expected vs this Seattle lineup. Houston at +128 could hold some serious value.
McHugh’s only weakness is Hart, Saunder and Jones, but it’s unclear all 3 of these will dress for tonight. At any rate, only having 3 Seattle hitters clocking over a .275 AVG is a good track record for McHugh.
Matchups show that there is definitely something in the water causing the UNDER pick here!
Indications this strong are very rare.
Stats SUPPORTING the UNDER trend:
|When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – 3rd game of a series||8-13-0|
|When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Last 2 years – During a night game – Coming off a 5 or more game under – Coming off a night game||2-13-0|
|When SEATTLE played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 6 Under or More||1 – 9 – 1|
|When SEATTLE played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 6 Lost in L7G||20 – 32 – 4|
Stats THREATENING the UNDER trend:
|When SEATTLE team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – During a night game – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher||8-4-0|
|When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Tuesday||7-4-0|