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Houston Astros (McHugh) vs. Seattle Mariners (Elias) – Preview for September 9th, 2014

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Houston Astros
Houston Astros 
O/U :7

3.67

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-09
Time: 21:10:00

Generated from 51 Previous Games

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
SIDE :-143

3.33 = 7

Pick: Astros@Mariners UNDER 7

With Houston’s Collin McHugh pitching pure fire and with Seattle’s Roenis Elias keeping pace, this contest promises to go UNDER the total.

McHugh is marking:
2.89 ERA all season.
1.96 ERA on the road.
2.25 ERA last 3 games.

Elias is marking:
3.84 ERA all season.
4.23 ERA at home.
2.25 ERA last 3 games.

  • These teams have had 6 battles in Houston so far this season, 4 of them have gone UNDER the total. This is indicative of these clubs’ pitchers knowing the hitters and being able to dominate them from the mound.
  • Umpire Jeff Nelson’s games go UNDER to the tune of 14-9 indicating a large Strike Zone giving good pitchers an easier time picking corners and incapacitating the batters’ ability to visualize the next pitch.
  • McHugh throws plenty of jump with his Slider being his go-to pitch and his Curveball and 4-Seamer as his secondaries.
  • Elias throws the 4-Seamer as primary but has his Curveball as his secondary.

Depending on what the ump lets these guys get away with, McHugh could do better than expected vs this Seattle lineup. Houston at +128 could hold some serious value.

McHugh’s only weakness is Hart, Saunder and Jones, but it’s unclear all 3 of these will dress for tonight. At any rate, only having 3 Seattle hitters clocking over a .275 AVG is a good track record for McHugh.

ATS MATCHUPS

Matchups show that there is definitely something in the water causing the UNDER pick here!
Indications this strong are very rare.

Stats SUPPORTING the UNDER trend:

When HOUSTON played as Home or Away Team- With Total between 6 and 7 9-18-3
When HOUSTON played as Road Underdog- in the month of September 17-27-1
When HOUSTON played as Road Team- Vs AL WEST 11-21-3
When HOUSTON played as Road Team- Vs SEATTLE 6-18-2
When HOUSTON played as Road Team- in the month of September 5-10-0
When SEATTLE played as Home Team- Vs AL WEST 3-12-0
When SEATTLE played as Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 4-11-0
When SEATTLE played as Home Favourite- Vs HOUSTON 6-13-2
When SEATTLE played as Favourite- Vs HOUSTON 15-26-2
When SEATTLE played as Favourite- Vs AL WEST 7-22-1
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – During a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 5 or more game under 2-10-1
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – Vs. Right handed pitchers – During a night game – Coming off a 5 or more game under – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 3-7-0
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 5 or more game under 4-10-1
When SEATTLE team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a non division game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run win 20-36-1
When SEATTLE team played as a Home team – During a night game – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 5-11-0
When SEATTLE team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs Conference Opponent – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Allowed 0 runs AGAINST in their last game 6-11-1
When SEATTLE team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 run win 23-37-1
When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – During a night game – 3rd game of a series 8-13-0
When SEATTLE team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 4 years – Before a division game 17-33-1
When SEATTLE team played as a home team – Vs Conference Opponent – During the month of September 32-60-3
When SEATTLE team played as a home team – 3rd game of a series – During a night game 63-107-4
When ANY MLB Team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Last 2 years – During a night game – Coming off a 5 or more game under – Coming off a night game 2-13-0
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 4 years – After a non division game – During a night game – Coming off a double header – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 55-85-9
When ANY MLB Team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – Last 3 years – Vs Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off a night game 24-38-4
When SEATTLE played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 6 Under or More 1 – 9 – 1
When SEATTLE played as any home/road team – During Last 4 Years – With SU Record of 1 Win 6 Lost in L7G 20 – 32 – 4

 

Stats THREATENING the UNDER trend:

When SEATTLE team played as a -140 to -160 Home Favorite – During a night game – After a non division game – Coming off a 1 run win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 8-4-0
When HOUSTON team played as a 120 to 140 road Underdog – Vs. Left handed pitchers – Playing on Tuesday 7-4-0

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