NFL Week 2 has proven to be electric and has football fans, sports bettors and sports handicappers wondering “what will we see next?”
With plenty of upsets that amount to nothing short of ‘monumental’, it has even the most meager teams thinking they can actually win on any given Sunday. No doubt this is encouraging for them and troublesome for the better teams.
Chicago, San Diego, St.Louis, Cleveland, Arizona all ended up winning as dogs with the spread, and that’s not even to mention last night’s comeback barn-burner in Indianapolis.
In Week 1, there were at least 20 key injuries that had sports handicappers wondering about their chances in Week 2. The results are in and they are crystal clear. As many key injuries as there were in week number 1, they can’t be taken as any kind of significant omen. Of the 20 key injuries we tracked last week, only 6 of those teams went on to lose in week 2; none the least of which was Philadelphia who lost Mathis in Week 1, yet still crawled back from a 17-6 deficit at half-time last night vs the Colts.
These kinds of results indicate that with the depth of most NFL teams, the rich lineups full of talent, and most of all the fierce competition for the headlines, most second stringers aren’t shying away from the challenge but they’re actually excelling when called upon to fill in for their injured marquee counterparts.
If anything, based on the overwhelming majority of teams that won despite having had key injuries last week, having 1st string injuries take the bench is actually more of an overall motivation than it is a detriment.
There is an exception for every rule, and for this rule, Kansas City Chiefs will be our focus for Week 3.
Kansas City were 2nd worst in scoring in the preseason, and they were 10th with the most points scored against them.
In Week 1 they lost both LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito to what we now know were both torn Achilles injuries.
Kansas City lost by 7 points to the Denver Broncos in Week 2, which all things considered, was actually a fairly good showing despite the injuries.
Although the extent of the injuries are unclear at this time, Chiefs lost RB Jamaal Charles to an ankle sprain as well as S Eric Berry to an ankle sprain on Sunday. With the Chiefs already having roster issues in the back field, Miami’s passing game could gain some traction next week when the Chiefs face the Dolphins in Miami.
In Week 1, Buffalo stymied the fish to a meager 10 points, but with a weak back-field, the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them and the Dolphins should find the end-zone with some frequency.
For these reasons, we like the Miami Dolphins to cover at -4.5 next week as well as the game to go over the total.
The Market has been showing it’s own trends through Week 1 and Week 2 as well.
In Week 1, games where the action favoured a team by 70% or more, we saw that the minority action won 9-5. While we don’t have the figures for Week 2, we know that Detroit and Seattle were very strong favorites to cover, and both of them fell extremely short of that mark. This is particularly interesting because it seems to indicate that the most attractive lines that Vegas offers, are actually the most poisonous.
The Chiefs are a 79% favorite in terms of action at this point, so according to these market trends, Miami Dolphins are indeed the correct pick.
For those following WSOH, MIAMI -4.5 would be the best purchase for the 7* pick, especially if the Chiefs’ ankle sprains from Week 2 end up benching Charles and Berry from action in Week 3.
However the Dolphins perform in Week 3, it will set a solid precedent moving forwards. While the Dolphins’ offense seemed to be firing on all cylinders for Week 1, they only trickled 10 points vs the Bills in Week 2.
If they can’t manage a way to win by a spread vs Kansas City’s hampered pass defense, then it’s tough to see that they could have a season anywhere near .500 and will likely fall to the back of the pack quicker than most. With that said, their outing in Week 1 had them looking like a well-oiled scoring machine so it will be interesting to see what they’ll come up with in week 3.
Regardless of anything, this game will be a game to watch and it’ll be interesting to see what the name brand Dolphins can do vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
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