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Toronto Blue Jays (Happ) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Norris) – Preview for September 17th, 2014

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Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 
O/U :8

2.57

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-17
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 32 Previous Games

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
SIDE :-118

4.53 = 7.1

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +108

This is definitely a wheelhouse pick.

When we see stats that stack up like this, in combination with population and recent WL betting patters, combined with the market odds that Vegas offers, we have had excellent purchase in this kind of consideration. Our record easily clears 65% on this specific consideration and we don’t see why it would be different today.

Baltimore are enjoying their time at the top of the mountain and if anyone is to knock them off, it’s going to be a team that has the greatness to do so. Toronto was knocked off as the ‘kings of the castle’ by Baltimore and have now lost 2 straight in a 3 game series. While Toronto is in the running for the championship this season, they have to know that if they allow themselves to be swept by Baltimore, they’ll have no chance. This should prove to be a powerful consideration and it should activate Toronto to play championship quality baseball regardless of their injuries.

Without Cabrera, Lawrie or Gillespie, it’s difficult to say who’s going to RBI for Toronto, but this will be the defining moment in the Jays’ season where they can sort out whether or not they have enough firepower to get the job done.

  • Over the last 7 games, both teams have averaged 5.0 runs per game. While this consideration is equal, Toronto marks a slight edge vs RH Starters hitting 4.6 RPG vs. Baltimore’s 4.0 RPG vs LH Starters.
  • If Baltimore can get an early lead, they have every opportunity of protecting it and finishing with the “W” as Baltimore has the advantage in the bullpen marking 3.16 ERA while Toronto is recording a mediocre 4.15 ERA all season.
  • Happ is 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA vs Baltimore. Norris is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA vs Toronto. Both pitchers are somewhat familiar with each others’ teams and based the excellent pitching in the past, we expect this to likely end up UNDER the total.
  • Baltimore has the overall better pitching, although not by a whole lot. Happ is 4.28 ERA all season while Norris is 3.74 ERA all season.
  • Baltimore definitely has some red hot pitching of late as well and definitely has the advantage on the bump for that reason. Happ is 3.60 ERA last 3 games. Norris is 1.89 ERA last 3 games.
  • Baltimore marks a powerful record vs Toronto and is 18-9 vs Toronto the last 3 seasons when playing in Baltimore.

 

ATS MATHCUPS

When TORONTO played as Road Team- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 11-23-1
When TORONTO played as Road Team- With a spread between 120 and 140 2-8-0
When TORONTO played as Road Underdog- With Total between 7.5 and 8.0 8-17-0
When BALTIMORE played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 13-6-1
When BALTIMORE played as Home Team- Vs AL EAST 16-8-1
When BALTIMORE played as Home or Away Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 13-4-3
When BALTIMORE played as Favourite- Vs AL EAST 26-17-2
When BALTIMORE played as Home Team- With a spread between 140 and 160 18-11-1
When BALTIMORE played as Home Favourite- in the month of September 25-10-0
When BALTIMORE played as Home Team- Vs TORONTO 21-14-0
When BALTIMORE played as Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 14-5-1

With ATS Matchups indicating such a strong advantage for Baltimore, we now have to look at where Vegas is coming from and what the market is saying.

  • With most of the obvious stats pointing at Baltimore to win, why would this contest be priced near PK?
  • The action is dialed in at 50-50. If Baltimore is such an obvious pick, then why is there not more money on Baltimore?
  • It appears as though there is a substantial amount of action with Toronto that we have trouble explaining. When this becomes the case, it’s correct to suspect that sharp money is affecting the moneyline, and as such, jumping on the bandwagon can produce some favourable results.

None of this really adds up to Baltimore winning in standard fare, and we’re going to respect this anomaly, and in fact, bet on it.

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