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NFL Week 3 Stats and Picks

It’s NFL Week 3 and it’s time to get real.

In the first few weeks sports handicappers and sports bettors encountered a few strange and counter-intuitive instances.

In week one, teams that had performed well in the pre-season ended up faring far better than the Vegas lines suggested they would. There were also more injuries than normal as well.

In week two, we saw some extreme upsets including but not limited to, Seahawks, Lions, Vikings and Giants. To top it off, so far in 2014, the public bettors have a dismal record.

To complicate issues in week 2, the injuries suffered from week 1 didn’t seem to have any real sway on the affected teams; to the contrary, the teams that suffered key injuries in week 1 were easily and by far the majority winners in week 2.

The final issue to compound matters in week 2, was that the preseason mojo that some of the better teams had going, completely abandoned them.
So the question then remains…”what is left to handicap when strengths and stats flip-flop week to week and key injuries are more beneficial than they are detrimental?”

Moving into week 3, what’s needed is some kind of big picture analysis that spans a plethora of situations and a long span of time.

Enter ATS Stats.

Let’s take a look:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3.5
61% of the betting public like the Chiefs.

The line has moved 1 point with the Chiefs since open.

Short and sweet. Although ATS actually loves the Dolphins, we have to realize provide due diligence to find the exceptions. Although this year key injuries have been insignificant or even in some cases helpful to teams, to have a slew of injuries across all lines can be extremely disruptive to the communication and co-ordination of a teams offense/defense.

In Miami’s case, to see them fail to reach double digits in week 2, and to see them get trounced defensively, we can see that injuries DO sometimes matter. Teammates need to play with one another to develop the trust, the communication and fluidity. For this reason, fading Miami might be a very good idea as it’s impossible to see how they could perform so dismally last week, and then come back to take on the Chiefs against the spread.

BUFFALO BILLS -2.5
36% of the betting public like the Bills.
Line opened at PK indicating sharp interest on the Bills.

In terms of net points, the Bills were on par with the Chargers heading into week 1, but the Bills have leap-frogged ahead of the Chargers in week 2.

AtsStats Matchups heavily favors the Buffalo Bills leaving the Bills a bargain at -2.5.

However before we bet the bank on the Bills, it’s important to note that even though the Chargers suffered a week 1 key injury in RB Ryan Matthews, they came back to shockingly dismantle the Seahawks in week 2, leaving injuries a nearly meaningless consideration.

Nonetheless, the Bills are 2-0 in the regular season standing 4th in league in terms of net points (+22).

Considering the spread is less than a FG, it’s worth noting that the Bills have absolutely run rampant and roughshod and thoroughly historically dominated the Chargers. This could speak to a strategic advantage and a strong understanding of the Chargers’ playbook.

When BUFFALO BILLS team played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs AFC West opponent – Vs Conference Opponent: Bills are 20-4-0 SU in this position.

When BUFFALO BILLS played as Home Favorite- Vs AFC West Division: Bills are 18-2-0 SU in this position.

When BUFFALO BILLS played as Home or Away Team- in the month of September: Bills are 16-9-0 ATS in this position.

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a 0 to 3 road Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – With 6 day off: Chargers are 2-11-3 ATS in this position.

When ANY NFL Team (Chargers) played as a Road team – With 6 days off – Last 4 years – During Week 1 to 4 – Coming off a Home win – Coming off 1 over: Chargers are 7-18-1 ATS in this position.

CAROLINA PANTHERS -3.5
-66% of the betting public like the Panthers

-Line is currently even with open

 

In terms of net points, the Panthers are at the head of the pack. The panthers not only had a positive preseason with a higher-than-average net point average, but in comparison to the Steelers after week 2, they look like juggernauts. This means they must have strong scoring and an above average defense; but most of all, it’s one of the only examples of consistency so far this season.

No NFL team goes ‘injury-free’, but the Panthers have no remarkable injuries thus far, and equal the Steelers in the amount.

The Panthers at -3.5 seem like a total bargain especially when we see how they’ve done historically in this position.

When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as a Home team – After a non division game – Scored more than 20 points in back to back games – Coming off a win on grass: Panthers are 9-2-0 ATS in this position.

When CAROLINA PANTHERS team played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on grass surface – After a non division game – Scored more than 20 points in back to back games: Panthers are 13-3-1 ATS in this position.

When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as a Road team – Vs Non Division Opponent – Last 5 years: Steelers are 8-21-0 ATS in this position.

When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as a Road team – Playing on grass surface – Last 3 years: Steelers are 4-12-0 ATS in this position.

When ANY NFL Team (Steelers) played as a Road team – Playing on grass surface – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – Coming off a lost on turf – Coming off a 2 ATS lost: Steelers are 6-14-0 ATS in this position.

Looking at the SU statistics, historically, Carolina has absolutely demolished Pittsburgh when playing in this position time and time again.

There is far too much in the atsstats database to cover here within the span of an article, (we haven’t even began to talk about Totals), but these are just a few games, themes and ideas to look out for moving into week 3 and it’s going to be interesting to see how teams develop themselves from this point in.

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