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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins – Preview for September 20th, 2014

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Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 
O/U :42.5

18.62

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-21
Time: 15:25:00

Generated from 28 Previous Games

Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
SIDE :4

22.34 = 40.96

 

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +4

 

Today we’re going to spotlight the Chiefs and get a good grip on the state of things heading into their Week 3 tussle with the ‘Phins.

ATS Matchups is clear-cut that the Miami Dolphins have traditionally dominated the Chiefs when it comes to the SU consideration. “When Miami plays Kansas City, the Dolphins win. That’s the rule.” – ATS STATS.

However…

When we look at the ATS numbers, we see a completely different picture. For all intents and purposes, when it comes to the SPREAD consideration, these teams are very much evenly matched. This fact attests to 2 things.

  • 1. Vegas line-setting needs to be respected. They know exactly what they’re doing.
  • 2. SU statistics can’t be in any way confused with ATS statistics.

So with that said, we shouldn’t be scared off by Miami’s SU dominance of the Chiefs because it’s got nothing at all to do with the +4 points spread with the Chiefs. Apples and Oranges.

So now that we’re clear on that, let’s look at the theme to this contest as it’s a common theme throughout the NFL as late that fantasy players, sports bettors and sports handicappers are well aware of…

INJURIES.

It’s striking that marquee injuries, so far, have been a terrible idea to put weight on. Handicappers are struggling to understand the value of 1st string performance when the 2nd stringers are typically just as strong, if not stronger, than the 1st stringers that they’re replacing!

  • St Louis did fine without their 1st string QB in week 2.
  • Washington’s Cousins entered the game to throw for 2 touchdowns when Griffin III was sidelined.

These are just a few examples of QBs that picked up the ball and ran with it, but this seems to extend perfectly well in terms of RBs, Gs, WRs, Cs, LBs and all the rest.

Kansas City Chiefs lost their RB Jamaal Charles to an ankle injury partway through week 2. In to replace him was Knile Davis who shone like a star in last week’s bout vs the Denver Broncos. While the Chiefs didn’t clench the W, Davis ran for 79 yards marking 2 touchdowns on the way.

Of the 32 teams playing NFL football, few have less overall injuries than Kansas.
Of the 32 teams playing NFL football, fewer have more overall injuries than Miami.

This is the difference. It’s not about the QUALITY of the injured 1st stringer because most teams have a depth that rivals the abyss. For every instance where you can name a 1st string game changing injury, I can name you three more where the 2nd stringer did just as well as the starter; no, it’s about the QUANTITY of injuries.

Headed into week three, the Miami Dolphins will be short:

LB Dannell Ellerbe
LB Jordan Tripp
LB Koa Misi
RB Mike Gillislee
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Lamar Miller (probable to play)
C Mike Pouncey
DT A.J. Francis
TE Arthur Lynch
TE Charles Clay (probable to play)G Shelley Smith
S Reshad Jones
OL Billy Turner
DE Dion Jordan
DE Terrence Fede

 

  • In week one, the Dolphins took 33 points off the mid-fare defense of the New England Patriots.
  • In week two, the Dolphins faced the Bills and had difficulty marking double digits vs one of the most porous defenses in the league according to the Bills’ preseason ‘Points Allowed’ stats.

How can you play good football when the guy next to you is someone new from week to week? You are begging for time-count violation penalties, procedure penalties, and all kinds of issues with communication, discipline, and everyone knowing where they need to be and what they need to be doing.

This is the weakness that was apparent in the Dolphins Week 2 outing vs Bills, and it will be what does them in vs a hungry Kansas squad, beginning at 4:30PM EST Sunday afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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