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Pittsburgh Pirates (Liriano) vs. Atlanta Braves (Harang) – Preview for September 22nd, 2014.

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Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 
SIDE :-1403.17
Vs.Date: 2014-09-22
Time: 18:10:00Generated from 5 Previous Games
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
O/U :6.5
2.25 = 5.42

 

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML -140

 

Pittsburgh will likely be facing the San Francisco Giants for the NL wildcard. At 4.0 RPG last 7 games, the Pirates are firing on all cylinders and they are teeing off at anything thrown their way.

The same cannot be said for Atlanta who are in their worst 7-day scoring slump marking a petty 1.7 RPG.

While the situation at the plate most definitely favours Pittsburgh, the real kicker is going to be Francisco Liriano. Liriano started the season with a few bumps, but has brilliantly fought back and is now one of the best pitchers in the league. Starting in July, we saw him turn around his season. He marked 1.33 ER across 6 games, but dropped a dismal 7 ER outing vs Detroit on August the 14th.

Since that fateful August day, Liriano has had 5 outings and has averaged an intimidating 0.6 ER per game in that span.

Harang marks a comparable season long ERA to Liriano; however, Liriano is a blistering 0.45 ERA last 3 games vs Harang’s 4.07ERA last 3 games.

ATS Matchups likes Pittsburgh in this instance as well, and although it’s not a historical blowout, there are some solid trends in the Head to Head considerations:

When PITTSBURGH played as Favourite- Vs NL East Division:
Pirates are
30-15-0 in this position.

When LIRIANO FRANCISCO ‘s Team played as Road Team- With Total between 6 and 7:
Pirates are
10-5-0 in this position.

When PITTSBURGH played as Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160:
Pirates are 30-19-1 in this position.

When HARANG AARON ‘s Team played as Home Underdog- With a spread between 120 and 140:
Atlanta are
6-12-0 in this position.

When HARANG AARON ‘s Team played as Home or Away Team- in the month of September:
Atlanta is 6-14-0 in this position.

 

A few cold hard stats never hurt a good bet:

  • Pittsburgh are 7-2 on the road with the ML between -125 and -150.
  • Pittsburgh is 13-6 in September.
  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 after shutting out their opponents.
  • Atlanta is 4-14 in September games.
  • Atlanta is 7-11 on Mondays.
  • Atlanta is 9-13 after 3 straight losses.

 

The reason this contest wasn’t priced at PIT -200 is because:

  • Atlanta is 5-2 vs Pittsburgh when playing in Atlanta L3 Season.
  • Atlanta has 3 straight losses which has negative progression system bettors chasing the win with huge bets; also, Pittsburgh are 6-1 while Atlanta are 1-6.
  • Harang has a strong history vs the Pirates. Harang marks a 4.15ERA but has a respectable WHIP of 1.209 vs Pittsburgh.

This should translate into solid value with good odds and great chances to win.

 

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