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New York Mets (Colon) vs. Washington Nationals (Roark) – Preview for September 23rd, 2014

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New York Mets
New York Mets 
O/U :7

4.18

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-23
Time: 18:05:00

Generated from 78 Previous Games

Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
SIDE :-158

4.86 = 9.04

 

Picks:

Washington Nationals Over 7

 

Originally this pick started as a WSH ML pick, but upon further inspection, we see that the Mets are in a bit of an extenuating circumstance as they are 4-0 last 4 games and have no doubt decided to finish the season with a bang.

 

With the Mets clubbing 5.1 RPG last 7 games, their bats are anything but quiet. While New York did poorly against the Atlanta starters (with the exception of Santana), it’s their performance vs the Atlanta bullpen that is interesting. The Braves’ pen is a formidable 2.74 ERA at home, and that is where the Mets found most of their traction. So we should be clear here…the Mets are arguably clubbing just as hard as any other team at the moment.

The threats from the Mets are:

  • Murphy .400 AVG across 5 at bats vs Roark.
  • Recker .500 AVG across 4 at bats vs Roark.
  • Eric Young Jr. .500 AVG across 4 at bats vs Roark.

 

All have played in the last 7 days and should all likely start.

 

 

While the Nationals are averaging 4.3 RPG vs RH Starters, they are currently facing a coolish scoring slump marking only 3.1 RPG last 7 games. Ultimately, this is the reason backing off the Nats at the ML is a good idea; although, it shouldn’t go without saying that they were up against some strong pitching in Koehler, Cosart, Eovaldi. If there is hope for the Nats, it’s definitely vs Colon. They mark excellent numbers vs Colon who is 4.02 ERA all season and on par with 4.07 ERA last 3 games.

The threats from the Nats are:

  • Desmond .400 AVG, 10 AB vs Colon.
  • Espinosa .333 AVG, 3 AB vs Colon.
  • Frandsen .500 AVG, 2 AB vs Colon
  • LaRoche .571 AVG, 7 AB vs Colon.
  • Lobaton .333 AVG, 3 AB vs Colon.
  • Werth .571 AVG, 7 AB vs Colon.
  • Zimmerman .333 AVG, 3 AB vs Colon.

All have played in the last 7 days and most will start today.

 

  • The OVER is 3-0 when Roark starts vs the Mets.
  • The OVER is 3-0 when these teams play in Washington.
  • The OVER is 8-4 between these teams this season.
  • Mets are 42-21 to the OVER when on the road as a +125 to +150 dog, last 3 seasons.
  • Nats are 14-7 to the OVER when playing as home chalk between -150 to -175, this season.
  • Nats are 30-17 to the OVER when playing with a day off last, last 3 seasons.

 

ATS MATCHUPS

Supporting the OVER pick:

When NY METS played as Home or Away Team- Vs WASHINGTON 11-5-4
When WASHINGTON played as Home Favourite- With a spread between 140 and 160 19-12-4
When WASHINGTON played as Home Favourite- With Total between 6 and 7 19-12-4
When WASHINGTON played as Favourite- Vs NY METS 7-4-4
When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – 1st game of a series – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 26-13-6
When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a series loss 15-8-4
When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Playing on Tuesday – During a night game – Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher – Coming off a 1 game win 13-8-2
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – During a night game – Vs NL EAST opponent – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 run win 15-9-2
When WASHINGTON team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Vs NL Conference – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Allowed 1 runs or less AGAINST in their last game 7-3-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – Playing on Tuesday – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent – Allowed 1 runs or less AGAINST in their last game 7-3-1
When NY METS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – Playing on Tuesday 11-6-3
When NY METS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – With 1 day off 9-5-1
When NY METS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – During a night game – During the month of September 14-7-0
When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – During a night game – Vs Division Opponent 26-17-2
When WASHINGTON team Played as home team as a Favorite – Last 2 years – During the month of September 16-10-1
When WASHINGTON team played as a -140 to -160 home Favorite – During a night game – Vs NL EAST opponent 26-17-2
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team – Last 2 years – Playing on Tuesday – Coming off a 3 game under – Coming off a day game 13-8-1
When NY METS Played as road team as a Underdog – During Last 3 Years – With 1 Over or Less – With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G 14 – 7 – 2
When NY METS played as a road team – During Current Season – With 1 Over or More 18 – 9 – 4
When WASHINGTON played as a home team – During Last 2 Years – With 3 Under 6 – 4 – 0
When WASHINGTON Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With 3 Under or More 8 – 4 – 1
When WASHINGTON Played as home team as a Favorite – During Last 3 Years – With 3 Under or Less – Won Last Game by 1 Runs or More – With SU Record of 3 Win 0 Lost in L3G 8 – 5 – 1

 

 

Supporting the UNDER pick:

When NY METS played as Underdog- Vs NL EAST 9-20-6
When NY METS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Vs NL EAST opponent – Coming off a 1 game win – Coming off 1 over 6-13-2
When WASHINGTON team played as a Home team – 1st game of a series – During a night game – Coming off a Road win as a Favorite – Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent 7-13-1
When ANY MLB Team played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – During the month of September – Last 4 years – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a day game 8-12-0

 

 

 

ATS RAYMOND REPORT

For those of you thinking about the Washington ML.

NY METSTeam Name: NY METS(Road Team)
Money Line: NY METS +143 vs WASHINGTON -155
Spread Line: NY METS +1.5 -160 —– WASHINGTON -1.5 +140
O/U: NY METS 7 -105 —– WASHINGTON 7 -115
Pitchers: NY METS – B Colon (R) vs WASHINGTON – T Roark (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,September 23 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: 0 – 0 vs Atlanta Braves
Current Game: Washington Nationals
Next Game: At WASHINGTON
Stats & Trends: NY METS vs. WASHINGTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 48.72%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 49.28%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 30.61%
Streaks: 3 SU Win – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 41%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.03
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 2.74

 

Road Team
(NY METS)
When NY METS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When NY METS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 10-12 224-299 44.14 7-6-9 214-236-73 49.3
vs Division opponent 20-34 478-594 40.82 15-24-15 466-528-78 57.33
vs Conference opponent 12-22 437-557 39.63 15-15-4 413-515-66 52.75
Playing in the month of September 7-8 137-189 44.35 4-7-4 140-162-24 58.64
Playing on Tuesday 7-11 169-218 41.28 4-8-6 168-194-25 60.13
Played as road Underdog 35-52 686-1073 39.62 34-37-16 739-904-116 53.57
After a Division Game 19-31 466-587 41.13 19-19-12 466-514-73 51.23
After a Conference Game 12-23 458-592 38.96 15-16-4 427-554-69 54.04
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 20-34 185-275 38.63 15-24-15 180-220-60 58.27
vs NL Conference Opponent 32-56 584-789 39.45 30-39-19 588-671-114 54.91
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 19-31 180-248 40.03 19-19-12 170-213-45 52.81
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 32-56 560-774 39.17 30-40-18 568-658-108 55.41
Coming off 1 over 5-10 279-323 39.84 6-5-4 258-295-49 49.4
Coming off a lost 28-42 621-864 40.91 26-32-12 599-779-107 55.85
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 17-26 367-557 39.63 20-17-6 381-479-64 50.83
With 1 days off 4-3 114-146 50.5 2-4-1 110-134-16 60.8
During a night game 22-48 745-1000 37.06 25-31-14 735-890-120 55.07
Coming off a 6 road trip 1-0 26-45 68.31 0-0-1 27-37-7 28.91
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 16-32 433-593 37.77 17-21-10 439-516-71 54.65
vs WASHINGTON (since 1996) 76-72 28-49 43.86 63-76-9 39-31-7 49.49
Coming off a Lost over NL EAST division opponent 14-22 113-151 40.85 12-15-9 103-128-33 55.49
Coming off a game that went over 5-10 279-323 39.84 6-5-4 258-295-49 49.4
Coming off a Road double header 9-20 74-169 30.74 8-14-7 70-145-28 65.54
Coming off a day game 15-17 376-467 45.74 13-10-9 364-428-51 48.76
Coming off a series loss 9-13 191-307 39.63 9-7-6 205-251-42 49.4
Coming off back to back Shutouts offense 9-11 55-104 39.8 5-11-4 47-93-19 67.59
Last 30 days 8-8 181-270 45.07 5-7-4 184-238-29 57.37
Last 45 days 11-12 273-411 43.87 10-8-5 275-364-45 50.7
Last 60 days 15-15 367-528 45.51 13-11-6 368-470-57 50.96
Last 90 days 19-29 539-756 40.6 18-23-7 530-681-84 56.17
Vs. Right handed pitchers 30-47 792-1054 40.93 28-35-14 790-938-118 54.92
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 31-46 811-1056 41.85 28-33-16 761-975-131 55.13
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 21-32 457-612 41.19 19-22-12 421-570-78 55.59
WASHINGTONTeam Name: WASHINGTON(Home Team)
Money Line: WASHINGTON -155 vs NY METS +143
Spread Line: WASHINGTON -1.5 +140 —– NY METS +1.5 -160
O/U: WASHINGTON 7 -115 —– NY METS 7 -105
Pitchers: WASHINGTON – T Roark (R) vs NY METS – B Colon (R)
Game Date: Tuesday,September 23 2014 6:05 PM
Last Game: win 2 – 1 vs Miami Marlins
Current Game: New York Mets
Next Game: Vs. NY METS
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
PVI Rating on Winning: 58.71%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 47.18%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 22.45%
Streaks: 4 SU Win – 3 Under
Home Teams % of winning this game: 54%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 54%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.01
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.15
Home Team
(WASHINGTON)
When WASHINGTON is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When WASHINGTON is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 25-15 283-240 58.31 20-14-6 214-236-73 46.81
vs Division opponent 18-14 507-565 51.77 14-15-3 466-528-78 52.42
vs Conference opponent 25-11 490-504 59.37 19-13-4 413-515-66 48.07
Playing in the month of September 3-3 160-166 49.54 3-3-0 140-162-24 51.82
Playing on Tuesday 7-5 173-214 51.52 6-4-2 168-194-25 46.8
Played as home Favorite 43-28 916-786 57.19 37-27-7 739-850-113 47.84
After a Division Game 19-15 508-565 51.61 18-15-1 457-537-79 49.74
After a Conference Game 26-13 532-513 58.79 22-14-3 429-547-69 47.47
vs NL EAST Division Opponent 18-14 205-259 50.22 14-15-3 186-222-56 53.07
vs NL Conference Opponent 43-25 688-685 56.68 33-28-7 568-691-114 50.39
Coming off vs NL EAST Division Opponent 19-15 213-262 50.36 18-15-1 194-233-48 50.01
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 43-26 692-696 56.09 36-28-5 582-694-112 49.07
Coming off a 4 winning streak 2-0 34-23 79.83 1-1-0 24-30-3 52.78
Coming off 3 under 2-0 98-84 76.93 2-0-0 79-91-12 26.77
Coming off a win 27-22 573-587 52.25 24-19-6 513-576-71 48.54
Coming off a Road Win as a Favorite 1-5 25-31 30.66 3-3-0 29-25-2 48.15
With 1 days off 6-2 115-126 61.36 5-2-1 105-117-19 40.64
During a night game 28-21 829-916 52.33 29-15-5 735-890-120 44.43
Coming off a 11 road trip (since 1996) 1-0 5-13 63.89 1-0-0 8-10-0 27.78
Coming off a 1 runs win 9-7 191-190 53.19 9-5-2 168-187-26 44.2
Coming off a score 2 runs FOR in last game 8-4 159-148 59.23 8-4-0 140-143-24 41.93
Coming off a score 1 runs AGAINST in last game 9-3 148-133 63.84 4-6-2 123-134-24 56.07
vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning % 25-14 533-523 57.29 19-15-5 447-532-77 49.23
vs NY METS (since 1996) 72-76 40-60 44.33 63-76-9 37-44-19 54.5
Coming off a Win over NL EAST division opponent 11-9 91-88 52.92 11-8-1 84-79-16 45.29
Coming off a day game 12-14 370-418 46.55 11-14-1 332-405-51 55.48
Coming off a series win 1-1 119-110 50.99 2-0-0 96-117-16 27.47
Last 30 days 4-3 226-225 53.63 4-3-0 184-238-29 49.63
Last 45 days 12-5 332-352 59.57 10-6-1 275-364-45 47.23
Last 60 days 16-9 444-451 56.81 15-8-2 368-470-57 45.44
Last 90 days 23-13 636-659 56.5 21-12-3 530-681-84 46.3
Vs. Right handed pitchers 31-26 893-987 50.95 29-25-3 816-948-116 50.02
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 39-27 877-964 53.37 32-28-6 747-971-123 51.6
Coming off win vs. Right handed pitcher 16-16 421-419 50.06 14-14-4 368-420-52 51.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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