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Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Preview September 27th, 2014

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Hamilton Tigercats
Hamilton Tigercats 
O/U :51.5

23

Vs.

Date: 2014-09-27
Time: 17:35:00

Generated from 18 Previous Games

Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
SIDE :1

29 = 52

 

Pick: Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1

 

ATS Forecast

The ATS Forecast has shown brutal accuracy in not only predicting Vegas lines but also in identifying edges and advantages. Forecast is particularly strong when looking at the totals.

MTL@OTT was shown to go well Under the total. It did.
SSK@EDM was shown to go well Under the total. It did.

BCL@CGY total was predicted at 47, Vegas set the line at 48.

When it comes to HAM@WPG, we see that Forecast predicts a 52 point total, Vegas set the total at 51.5.

However it’s not the total that grabs focus, it’s the significance within the Winnipeg spread line.

According to ATS Forecast, Winnipeg is set at 29, Hamilton is set at 23.
A 6 point spread with the Bombers.

Considering that Vegas is only asking the Bombers for 1 point, this appears as though it could be a steal.

However…

 

Market Consideration

When we look at the action, we see about 85% of the public on Winnipeg!

Usually if there is a significant difference in action, the books need to compensate the line for the disparity. With this kind of action on the Bombers, we’d expect the Forecast’s -6 prediction to turn to -10. The fact that’s it’s gone the wrong way, towards near PK, is extremely revealing of where the money lies.

Plain and simple? The public loves the Winnipeg line but the sharp money is most definitely on Hamilton.

The Bombers had the strongest opening record and sat atop the Western Division headed into Week 7.

It’s tough to ignore that kind of precedent and just admit that they’re a different team. This is a huge piece of where the confidence of the public lies. The other piece is, of course, the western division’s thorough and complete dominance over the east.

Lineup Considerations

Following an injury in their last game, the Bombers will be starting their go-to QB Drew Willy. Regarding his return this week, Willy declined to place a percentage on his health indicating some uncertainty. After hearing his comments it doesn’t impress confidence in his health and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Willy sidelined again today. The Bombers’ backup QB, Brian Brohm, is throwing 50% completions so he is not a point of confidence should Willy get sidelined again.

Aside from the “?” behind Willy’s health is none the least the fact that Nick Moore is riding the bench today as well. Nick Moore is integral to the Winnipeg offense. Marking 1105 yards in 2013 and 469 so far in the 2014 season, Moore is completely necessary.
Bombers are 5-2 when Moore starts and 1-4 when he doesn’t.

Aside from Winnipeg’s woes with Moore, their offense will also be missing OL Cordaro Howard and OL Patrick Neufeld.

On the defensive side of things, the Bombers will be missing, DE Jason Vega. LB Ian Wild, DB Bruce Johnson  and DT Zach Anderson.

Hamilton is not without their injury woes as well. Brandon Banks has caught for 258 yards and 2 TD this season, averaging 15.2 yards per play. Brandon is also one of Hamilton’s kick returners and has ran back 481 yards so far this season. Cary Koch is another WR/KR marking similar numbers to that of Banks, he is on the bench today as well.

LB David Caldwell, DE Arnaud Nadon, DE Sam Scott and DT Terrence Moore are also sitting today and should somewhat equalize the injuries in the Bomber’s defense.

 

Last 3 Outings

Hamilton Points For 84
Winnipeg Points For 63

Hamilton Points Against 64
Winnipeg Points Against 91

Hamilton has faced 2 western division teams in their last 3 outings.
Winnipeg has faced 3 western division teams in their last 3 outings.

 

Discipline

Hamilton has been penalized 1053 yards.
Winnipeg has been penalized 1052 yards.

This is just about the league average.

However, when it comes to Penalty 1st Downs, there is a huge disparity between the Cats and the Bombers.

Hamilton has 7 Penalty 1st Downs all season.
Hamilton’s opponents have 27 Penalty 1st Downs.

Winnipeg has 28 Penalty 1st Downs all season.
Winnipeg’s opponents have 12 Penalty 1st Downs.

Neither team has been showing any particular discipline of late as their penalty numbers are the highest they’ve ever been.

 

ATS Raymond Report

HAMILTONTeam Name: HAMILTON(Road Team)
Line: HAMILTON +1 —– WINNIPEG -1
O/U: HAMILTON 51.5 (OVER -110) —– WINNIPEG 51.5 (UNDER -110)
Game Date: Saturday , September 27 2014 5:35 PM
Last Game: win 23 – 25 vs Edmonton Eskimos
Current Game: Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Next Game: Vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Stats & Trends: HAMILTON vs. WINNIPEG
PVI Rating on Winning: 55%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 34.85%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 59.18%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 2 ATS Lost – 2 Under
Road Teams % covering the spread: 51%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 51%
Road Teams Predicted Points For: 23.66
Road Teams Predicted Points Against: 23.58

 

Road Team
(HAMILTON)
When HAMILTON is a Road Team When Any CFL Team is a Road Team Differential % When HAMILTON is a Road Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 52.00 (since 1996) 4-8-0 14-10-0 0.46 8-4-0 12-12-0 0.42
vs Non-Division opponent 9-8-0 65-67-2 0.51 10-7-0 63-70-1 0.47
vs Non-Conference opponent 9-8-0 65-67-2 0.51 10-7-0 63-70-1 0.47
Playing in the month of September (since 1996) 12-17-0 39-37-1 0.46 14-15-0 36-41-0 0.52
Playing on Saturday (since 1996) 17-23-0 44-48-4 0.44 20-20-0 39-56-1 0.54
Played as Road Underdog 18-18-0 155-131-5 0.52 19-17-0 131-158-2 0.51
After a Non-Division Game 10-4-0 73-55-1 0.64 6-8-0 54-75-0 0.58
After a Non-Conference Game 10-4-0 73-55-1 0.64 6-8-0 54-75-0 0.58
Before a Non-Division Game 4-9-0 67-57-0 0.42 7-6-0 63-61-0 0.48
Before a Non-Conference Game 4-9-0 67-57-0 0.42 7-6-0 63-61-0 0.48
vs Western Conference Opponent (since 1996) 0-0-0 79-63-3 0.27 0-0-0 61-82-2 0.29
Coming off a 2 winning streak (since 1996) 13-7-0 14-11-1 0.59 12-8-0 17-8-1 0.36
Coming off 2 under (since 1996) 11-10-0 20-20-1 0.51 6-15-0 22-19-0 0.59
Coming off a win 9-10-0 72-63-3 0.5 11-8-0 64-72-2 0.48
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 7-4-0 45-35-3 0.59 7-4-0 40-42-1 0.44
With 6 days off 5-5-0 43-37-1 0.52 6-4-0 40-40-1 0.45
Coming off a 2 home stand (since 1996) 18-16-0 31-27-4 0.51 17-17-0 26-35-1 0.54
Before Playing BRITISH COLUMBIA (since 1996) 5-12-0 12-10-0 0.42 9-8-0 8-14-0 0.55
After Playing EDMONTON (since 1996) 6-8-0 15-11-0 0.5 4-10-0 7-19-0 0.72
Coming off a 2 points win (since 1996) 1-2-0 3-5-0 0.35 1-2-0 3-5-0 0.65
Coming off a score 25 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 1-4-0 4-3-0 0.39 2-3-0 2-5-0 0.66
Coming off a score 23 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 1-2-0 3-2-0 0.47 2-1-0 4-1-0 0.27
vs WINNIPEG (since 1996) 13-15-0 16-17-1 0.47 14-14-0 16-17-1 0.51
Last 30 days (since 1996) 0-1-0 9-8-1 0.25 1-0-0 8-10-0 0.28
Last 45 days (since 1996) 0-1-0 14-11-1 0.27 1-0-0 9-17-0 0.33
Last 60 days (since 1996) 0-2-0 20-14-1 0.29 2-0-0 16-19-0 0.27
Last 90 days (since 1996) 2-3-0 28-23-1 0.47 2-3-0 20-32-0 0.61
During week 14 (since 1996) 6-4-0 7-7-0 0.55 4-6-0 6-8-0 0.59
Coming off Back to Back SU Wins (since 1996) 18-15-1 36-31-2 0.53 23-11-0 34-33-2 0.41
Coming off Back to Back SU Home Wins (since 1996) 6-3-0 12-9-2 0.59 5-4-0 12-10-1 0.45
TEAM: HAMILTON
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 22.36 23.73
Home Games Avg 24.17 19.67
Road Games Avg 20.2 28.6
Last 3 Games Avg 28 21.33
Last 5 Games Avg 23.4 21.2
Last 10 Games Avg 23.6 23
vs. Division Games Avg 25.75 25
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 22.36 23.73
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 21 25.4
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 21.33 20.33
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 25.67 24.33
After a Win Games Avg 27.33 29.33
After a Lost Games Avg 22 20.29
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 22.4 18.8
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 27.33 29.33
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 21 24
After an Over Games Avg 25.75 24
After an Under Games Avg 22.17 22.33
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
23.66 23.58
WINNIPEGTeam Name: WINNIPEG(Home Team)
Line: WINNIPEG -1 —– HAMILTON +1
O/U: WINNIPEG 51.5 (UNDER -110) —– HAMILTON 51.5 (OVER -110)
Game Date: Saturday , September 27 2014 5:35 PM
Last Game: lost 9 – 26 vs British Columbia Lions
Current Game: Hamilton Tigercats
Next Game: At OTTAWA
Stats & Trends: WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
PVI Rating on Winning: 54.17%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 62.5%
Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 65.31%
Streaks: 3 SU Lost – 2 ATS Lost – 1 Under
Home Teams % covering the spread: 48%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Home Teams Predicted Points For: 22.58
Home Teams Predicted Points Against: 26.03
Home Team
(WINNIPEG)
When WINNIPEG is a Home Team When Any CFL Team is a Home Team Differential % When WINNIPEG is a Home Team,the O/U When Any CFL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 52.00 (since 1996) 4-8-1 10-14-0 0.36 6-7-0 12-12-0 0.52
vs Non-Division opponent 8-6-0 67-65-2 0.54 5-8-1 63-70-1 0.57
vs Non-Conference opponent 8-6-0 67-65-2 0.54 5-8-1 63-70-1 0.57
Playing in the month of September (since 1996) 22-17-2 37-39-1 0.51 20-20-1 36-41-0 0.52
Playing on Saturday (since 1996) 15-10-3 48-44-4 0.52 12-14-2 39-56-1 0.56
Played as Home Favorite 17-16-1 131-155-5 0.48 16-17-1 131-158-2 0.53
After a Division Game 9-9-1 64-80-3 0.45 8-10-1 69-76-2 0.54
After a Conference Game 9-9-1 64-80-3 0.45 8-10-1 69-76-2 0.54
Before a Division Game 7-7-1 60-72-3 0.46 8-6-1 56-77-2 0.5
Before a Conference Game 7-7-1 60-72-3 0.46 8-6-1 56-77-2 0.5
vs Eastern Conference Opponent 16-14-1 61-81-2 0.47 15-15-1 63-80-1 0.53
Coming off 1 under (since 1996) 19-22-3 25-41-2 0.4 21-20-3 25-41-2 0.55
Coming off a lost 10-8-0 62-69-1 0.51 9-8-1 65-66-1 0.49
Coming off a Road Lost as a Underdog 8-5-1 43-46-1 0.52 4-9-1 41-48-1 0.62
With 13 days off (since 1996) 0-1-0 2-1-0 0.33 0-1-0 1-2-0 0.83
Coming off a 1 road stand 6-8-0 60-71-2 0.44 6-8-0 60-72-1 0.56
Before Playing OTTAWA (since 1996) 4-0-1 3-3-0 0.65 2-3-0 0-6-0 0.8
After Playing BRITISH COLUMBIA (since 1996) 3-10-1 8-12-0 0.31 5-9-0 11-9-0 0.55
Coming off a 17 points loss (since 1996) 1-0-0 2-1-0 0.83 0-1-0 1-2-0 0.83
Coming off a score 26 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 0-1-0 1-6-0 0.07 0-1-0 4-3-0 0.71
vs HAMILTON (since 1996) 15-13-0 18-18-0 0.52 14-14-0 19-17-0 0.49
Last 30 days (since 1996) 0-1-0 8-9-1 0.22 1-0-0 8-10-0 0.28
Last 45 days (since 1996) 1-1-0 11-14-1 0.46 1-1-0 9-17-0 0.58
Last 60 days (since 1996) 1-2-0 14-20-1 0.37 1-2-0 16-19-0 0.6
Last 90 days (since 1996) 2-3-0 23-28-1 0.42 2-3-0 20-32-0 0.61
Coming off a 2 ATS Lost (since 1996) 12-8-2 16-18-0 0.51 11-10-1 14-20-0 0.53
Coming off a Road ATS lost 7-3-0 45-40-0 0.61 3-7-0 35-50-0 0.64
During week 14 (since 1996) 4-6-0 7-7-0 0.45 4-6-0 6-8-0 0.59
Coming off a After Bye (since 1996) 0-1-0 2-1-0 0.33 0-1-0 1-2-0 0.83
Coming off Back to Back SU Lost (since 1996) 29-16-4 34-27-1 0.57 22-25-2 26-35-1 0.55
Coming off Back to Back ATS Lost (since 1996) 17-13-2 27-24-0 0.53 16-15-1 21-30-0 0.54
TEAM: WINNIPEG
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 24.42 25.67
Home Games Avg 24.83 24
Road Games Avg 24 27.33
Last 3 Games Avg 21 30.33
Last 5 Games Avg 21.6 29
Last 10 Games Avg 21.2 25.9
vs. Division Games Avg 17.67 24.33
vs. Conference Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 24.42 25.67
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 11.67 19.33
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 24.5 28.5
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 32 27.2
After a Win Games Avg 24.5 28.5
After a Lost Games Avg 20.2 23.2
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 15.67 25
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 24 23
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 33.33 32
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 17.67 23.33
After an Over Games Avg 21 26
After an Under Games Avg 25.25 26.25
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
22.58 26.03

 

Conclusion

Based on…

  • how the Raymond Report describes Hamilton’s chances in this position
  • the momentum that Hamilton has coming into today’s game
  • Winnipeg’s lack of momentum of late
  • Winnipeg’s crucial injuries and Willy’s lack of health
  • based on Vegas’ peculiar line set in response to the majority corresponding public confidence on the Winnipeg spread

…Hamilton Tiger Cats ATS is not only the pick but it’s to be a full unit pick on top of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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