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New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Preview for September 29th, 2014

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New England Patriots
New England Patriots 
SIDE :320.04
Vs.Date: 2014-09-29
Time: 19:30:00Generated from 16 Previous Games
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
O/U :47
21.59 = 41.63

 

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3

 

Across the last few days, the action on the Patriots has moved from a 45% minority to a 60% majority.

On Saturday, Vegas responded to the announcement that RB Jamaal Charles would be probable to play Monday Night by moving the line +2.5 with the Chiefs. The move was short lived as bettors seemed unphased by the news and action continued to pile on with the Patriots. The line moved back to +3.

We attribute this value and public tendency to 2 things:

  • The Patriots are a name-brand team.
  • The Patriots had an outstanding and unforgettable week 2 result vs Minnesota.

That said, after we look at week 3 performance, It’s unclear how much weight these considerations will have on today’s Monday Night contest in week 4.

Cause for concern, would be New England’s outing in week 3, when they faced the Oakland Raiders.

In week 3 the Patriots captured the win vs Oakland in a 16-9 victory; however, with the NEP line set at -13.5, New England fell way short of their mark in a lackluster performance.

On the offensive front, scoring only 16 points vs the league’s 7th worst defense is no real mark of offensive health or strength. It was a below par accomplishment for the Patriots.

On the defensive front, although the Patriots kept Oakland to a single digit tally, again, when facing the hands-down worst offense in the league, it’s standard fare for a team like the Patriots to severely mitigate their opponent’s scoring.

All in all, while New England had a moderate showing (at best) in week three, it was definitely a giant step backwards compared to their week 2 showing vs the Minnesota Vikings.

 

Kansas City has had a very different path from that of the Patriots throughout the 2014 season so far.

Kansas had a terrible week 1 showing vs the Tennessee titans in a 26-10 routing.
In week 2, Kansas had a bittersweet experience vs the Denver Broncos. Their offense marked a reasonable 17 points, but their defense allowed the Broncos 24 points.

In week 3, the Chiefs completely transformed themselves into a winning team that will start to turn heads if they can score the “W” versus the Patriots tonight.

In week 3 on the offensive front, the Chiefs peeled 34 points from the Miami Dolphins with an offense that looked well-oiled and proficient. The Dolphins mark a mid-fare defense (19th in the league), so it’s expected that they’ll see some points against, but 34 points proves that QB Alex Smith, and the KC offense, pose a serious threat.

In week 3 on the defensive front, the Chiefs only allowed 15 points vs the ‘Fins. Considering that the Miami Dolphins possess a high-octane offense, (8th in scoring), to keep them to 15 points is no small matter.

 

The residual success of the Patriots and their powerful outing in week 2 has the Kansas City Chiefs listed as a +3 underdog ATS. With RB Jamaal Charles listed as ‘probable to start’, it would be a stretch to label the Chiefs as an “underdog” in this position.

ATS Forecast agrees.

  • Forecast gives the Chiefs 1.55 points.
  • Vegas gives Kansas an additional 3.
  • Kansas is stepping forward in terms of momentum and performance.
  • New England is stepping backwards in terms of momentum and performance.

 

Although the Patriots are not without their own strong historical considerations, ATS Matchups shows us where this +3 dog has some chances:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 20 Team Trends
ATS SU
Description Win-Loss-Push Win-Loss-Push
Click on description to see Predictions on next game Click on records Click on records
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Home team – Before a non division game – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game 4-7-0 7-4-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a pk to 3 Home Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Coming off a win on grass 9-4-0 9-4-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Home team as a Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Coming off 1 over 10-4-0 9-5-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game 20-16-1 20-17-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Home team – Playing on grass surface – After a conference game – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Road win 8-2-0 10-0-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog – After a non division game – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game 15-11-1 15-12-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a pk to 3 Home Underdog – After a non division game – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game 8-4-0 8-4-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Home team as a Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Allowed 17 points or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Road win 8-3-0 8-3-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as Home team as a Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Coming off a win on grass 12-3-0 10-5-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog – Playing on grass surface – Coming off 2 game Road stand 8-4-1 6-7-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Home team – Playing on grass surface – After a conference game – Coming off a win on grass – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 8-4-0 10-2-0
When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS team played as a Home team – Playing on grass surface – After a conference game – Allowed 14 – 21 AGAINST in their last game 16-17-3 22-14-0

To be certain, in both SU and ATS historical considerations, the Chiefs have some serious chances in this position.

 

Real-time progress and momentum this season, plus ATS Forecast, plus ATS Matchups leaves it clear that the Chiefs are a good bet tonight.

No matter what happens, this contest proves to be a banger! It will be interesting to see if the Patriots can re-ignite their defense and if the Chiefs can maintain the top-tier offense and defense that they proved in week 3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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