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St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Greinke) – Preview for October 4th, 2014

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St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals 
O/U :73.78
Vs.Date: 2014-10-04
Time: 20:35:00

Generated from 32 Previous Games

Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
SIDE :-165
3.65 = 7.43

 

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers ML -165

 

OK sports fans, sports bettors, sports handicappers and others. It’s time to make some money.

The position that the Dodgers are in is hard to beat. While the moneyline certainly feels as though it’s set to a spot that would give the Cardinals the best value, we beg to differ.

Typically, when you have a high populace city facing a low populace city, many of the biased bettors in LA will end up driving the value from the LAD ML.

However the other part of value is a team’s chance to win.

When we look at the Dodgers’ scoring we see a hungry team with a ton of heat on their timber. They are swinging for the fences and connecting.

St. Louis came out of nowhere scoring 10 runs as they edged the Dodgers last game, but even with that big game they’re still only averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 7 outings.

In comparison, the Dodgers are crushing a league-elite 6.7 runs per game in their last 7 outings.

Facts to know about:

  • The Cards are 3.7 RPGvs RH Starters all season.
  • The Dodgers are 4.6 RPG vs RH Starters all season.
  • Lynn is 4-1 vs the Dodgers with a 4.31 ERA and a WHIP of 1.564
  • Grinke is 10-5 vs the Cards with a 3.39 ERA and a WIHP of 1.186

The Dodgers are down one game in a heartbreaker and will be gunning for revenge tonight. Ultimately, this game will mark whether they have a shot at this series or not. If the Dodgers don’t make good here tonight, then hang it up on their season, their goose is cooked…and they know it.

 

ATS Database makes some interesting observations:

When GREINKE ZACK ‘s Team played as Home Favourite- Vs ST LOUIS 7-0-0
When GREINKE ZACK ‘s Team played as Favourite- Vs ST LOUIS 7-2-0
When GREINKE ZACK ‘s Team played as Home Team- Vs ST LOUIS 7-2-0
When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – 2nd game of a series – Playing on Saturday – Coming off a 1 game loss – Allowed 10 runs or less AGAINST in their last game 22-6-0
When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off a 1 game loss – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 15-2-0
When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite – After a conference game – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series – Coming off a Loss vs. NL CENTRAL opponent 25-13-0

 

 

When ST LOUIS played as a road team – During Last 5 Years – Won Last Game by 1 Runs or Less 22 – 44 – 0
When ANY MLB Team (STL) played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Playing on Saturday – Vs. Right handed pitchers – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog – Coming off 1 over 10-20-0
When ANY MLB Team (STL) played as a 140 to 160 Road Underdog – Coming off vs. National League opponent – Vs Non Division Opponent – Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher – Coming off a Road win as a Underdog 18-34-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a 140 to 160 road Underdog – After a conference game – During a night game 10-20-0
When ST LOUIS team Played as Road team as a Underdog – During a night game – Vs NL WEST opponent – Coming off 1 over – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 2-9-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Road team – During a night game – After a non division game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent – Coming off a 2 game winning streak 20-15-0
When ST LOUIS team played as a Road team – During a night game – 2nd game of a series – Allowed 9 runs or less AGAINST in their last game – Coming off a Win vs. NL WEST opponent 14-29-0

 

The list continues on and on like this. There is every indication that according to ATS Database, the Cards have a positional detriment here as well as the real-time stats and capabilities of their current pitching and hitting.

All sign are a “go” with the Dodgers and we should definitely expect another banger.

 

ATS Raymond Report supports the Database:

ST LOUISTeam Name: ST LOUIS(Road Team)
Money Line: ST LOUIS +152 vs LOS ANGELES -165
Spread Line: ST LOUIS +1.5 -150 —– LOS ANGELES -1.5 +130
O/U: ST LOUIS 7 +110 —– LOS ANGELES 7 -130
Pitchers: ST LOUIS – L Lynn (R) vs LOS ANGELES – Z Greinke (R)
Game Date: Saturday,October 04 2014 8:35 PM
Last Game: win 10 – 9 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Current Game: Los Angeles Dodgers
Next Game: Vs.
Stats & Trends: ST LOUIS vs. LOS ANGELES
PVI Rating on Winning: 56.1%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 53.55%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 46.94%
Streaks: 2 SU Win – 1 Over
Road Teams % of winning this game: 44%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 55%
Road Teams Predicted Runs For: 3.88
Road Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.79

 

Road Team
(ST LOUIS)
When ST LOUIS is a Road Team When Any MLB Team is a Road Team Differential % When ST LOUIS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 12-12 233-313 46.34 9-12-3 224-247-75 54.79
vs Non-Division opponent 21-23 635-878 44.85 17-25-2 624-795-94 57.78
vs Conference opponent 16-18 449-570 45.56 13-20-1 425-528-66 58.01
Playing in the month of October 1-0 5-2 85.72 1-0-0 4-3-0 21.43
Playing on Saturday 8-5 174-250 51.29 7-4-2 187-218-19 45.1
Played as road Underdog 18-18 711-1112 44.5 14-19-3 761-944-118 56.48
After a Non-Division Game 19-24 639-877 43.17 17-24-2 614-804-98 57.62
After a Conference Game 16-17 469-605 46.08 12-20-1 439-566-69 59.41
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 20-19 220-309 46.44 17-20-2 223-275-31 54.64
vs NL Conference Opponent 36-37 601-819 45.82 30-40-3 605-700-115 55.39
Coming off vs NL WEST Division Opponent 7-8 170-242 43.97 8-7-0 189-192-31 48.53
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 35-35 576-804 45.87 28-39-3 585-686-109 56.09
Coming off a 2 winning streak 5-3 134-157 54.28 1-7-0 136-145-10 69.55
Coming off 1 over 8-7 289-335 49.82 9-5-1 270-305-49 44.38
Coming off a win 15-27 495-618 40.09 16-25-1 501-546-66 56.57
Coming off a Road Win as a Underdog 6-9 233-330 40.7 5-9-1 265-269-29 57.33
During a night game 26-29 770-1040 44.91 21-31-3 761-927-122 57.27
Coming off a 7 road trip (since 1996) 4-9 10-18 33.24 8-5-0 11-12-5 45.32
Coming off a 1 runs win 4-10 131-180 35.35 4-9-1 136-156-19 61.33
Coming off a score 10 runs FOR in last game 0-1 22-16 28.95 1-0-0 20-14-4 20.59
Coming off a score 9 runs AGAINST in last game 1-2 29-36 38.98 1-2-0 29-34-2 60.32
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 17-15 451-625 47.52 13-17-2 463-541-72 55.28
vs LOS ANGELES (since 1996) 36-36 37-46 47.29 40-30-2 48-29-6 40.26
Coming off a Win over NL WEST division opponent 2-5 77-118 34.03 5-2-0 88-87-20 39.14
Coming off a game that went over 8-7 289-335 49.82 9-5-1 270-305-49 44.38
Coming off a day game 14-11 381-481 50.1 9-16-0 374-437-51 58.94
Coming off a game 1 of a series 10-15 343-405 42.93 8-15-2 326-383-39 59.62
Coming off a win in game 1 of a series 2-10 153-172 31.88 3-8-1 146-164-15 62.82
Last 30 days 9-7 157-221 48.89 6-9-1 160-196-22 57.53
Last 45 days 11-11 243-360 45.15 8-13-1 248-318-37 59.04
Last 60 days 13-15 334-507 43.07 12-15-1 344-445-52 55.98
Last 90 days 18-19 504-721 44.9 19-17-1 505-646-74 51.68
Vs. Right handed pitchers 30-31 819-1101 45.92 23-36-2 822-977-121 57.67
Coming off vs. Left handed pitcher 6-3 296-407 54.39 4-4-1 323-339-41 50.61
Coming off win vs. Left handed pitcher 2-8 137-174 32.03 3-7-0 157-133-21 57.93
TEAM: ST LOUIS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 3.82 3.69
Home Games Avg 4 3.71
Road Games Avg 3.64 3.66
Last 3 Games Avg 4.33 4.67
Last 5 Games Avg 4.2 4.6
Last 10 Games Avg 4.4 3.9
vs. Division Games Avg 4.14 3.74
vs. Conference Games Avg 3.88 3.63
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.35 4.1
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 3.3 3.68
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 3.9 3.51
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.2 3.94
After a Win Games Avg 3.66 3.96
After a Lost Games Avg 4.04 3.43
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 3.38 4.38
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 3.52 3.14
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 3.88 3.63
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.77 3.83
After an Over Games Avg 4.25 4.03
After an Under Games Avg 3.55 3.53
After a Push Games Avg 3.22 2.89
3.88 3.79
LOS ANGELESTeam Name: LOS ANGELES(Home Team)
Money Line: LOS ANGELES -165 vs ST LOUIS +152
Spread Line: LOS ANGELES -1.5 +130 —– ST LOUIS +1.5 -150
O/U: LOS ANGELES 7 -130 —– ST LOUIS 7 +110
Pitchers: LOS ANGELES – Z Greinke (R) vs ST LOUIS – L Lynn (R)
Game Date: Saturday,October 04 2014 8:35 PM
Last Game: lost 10 – 9 vs St Louis Cardinals
Current Game: St Louis Cardinals
Next Game: Vs.
Stats & Trends: LOS ANGELES vs. ST LOUIS
PVI Rating on Winning: 57.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 45.75%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 51.02%
Streaks: 1 SU Lost – 5 Over
Home Teams % of winning this game: 52%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 52%
Home Teams Predicted Runs For: 4.88
Home Teams Predicted Runs Against: 3.99
Home Team
(LOS ANGELES)
When LOS ANGELES is a Home Team When Any MLB Team is a Home Team Differential % When LOS ANGELES is a Home Team,the O/U When Any MLB Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Current Season Current Season Differential % Current Season Current Season Differential %
SU SU O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 7 16-17 295-251 51.26 18-9-6 224-247-75 42.89
vs Non-Division opponent 20-25 737-776 46.58 27-16-2 624-795-94 46.62
vs Conference opponent 16-19 501-518 47.44 22-11-2 425-528-66 44.37
Playing in the month of October 0-1 2-5 14.29 1-0-0 4-3-0 21.43
Playing on Saturday 11-2 222-202 68.49 9-2-2 187-218-19 36.01
Played as home Favorite 41-33 950-816 54.6 44-24-6 761-890-115 44.6
After a Non-Division Game 20-25 727-764 46.6 25-18-2 623-776-92 48.67
After a Conference Game 18-20 543-526 49.09 23-13-2 440-560-69 46.06
vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 7-12 275-261 44.08 11-7-1 226-282-28 47.2
vs NL Conference Opponent 41-32 718-708 53.26 43-24-6 586-725-115 45.56
Coming off vs NL CENTRAL Division Opponent 9-10 282-251 50.14 10-7-2 222-277-34 48.35
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 42-33 723-718 53.09 44-25-6 599-729-113 45.56
Coming off 5 over (since 1996) 6-11 10-12 40.37 8-9-0 11-9-2 48.97
Coming off a lost 21-12 685-756 55.59 17-14-2 587-752-102 50.66
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite 15-11 351-333 54.51 14-10-2 294-355-35 48.19
During a night game 39-27 864-946 53.41 35-26-5 761-927-122 48.77
Coming off a 7 home stand 1-0 16-10 80.77 1-0-0 14-11-1 22
Coming off a 1 runs loss 3-3 150-146 50.34 5-1-0 122-159-15 36.63
Coming off a score 9 runs FOR in last game 2-1 41-25 64.4 2-1-0 28-35-3 44.45
Coming off a score 10 runs AGAINST in last game 0-1 15-16 24.2 1-0-0 13-16-2 27.59
vs. opponent with a 51% to 60% winning % 13-12 516-579 49.56 13-10-2 463-568-64 49.29
vs ST LOUIS (since 1996) 36-36 42-41 50.3 40-30-2 34-45-4 49.91
Coming off a Lost over NL CENTRAL division opponent 6-5 151-128 54.34 7-3-1 116-146-17 42.87
Coming off a day game 10-11 383-429 47.4 11-7-3 346-415-51 46.71
Coming off a game 1 of a series 14-11 367-382 52.5 13-10-2 326-384-39 48.78
Coming off a lost in game 1 of a series 6-4 171-191 53.62 4-5-1 157-188-17 55.03
Last 30 days 10-3 189-189 63.46 8-3-2 160-196-22 41.17
Last 45 days 14-7 307-296 58.79 13-6-2 248-318-37 43.88
Last 60 days 16-11 420-421 54.6 17-8-2 344-445-52 44.2
Last 90 days 23-15 613-612 55.29 21-14-3 505-646-74 48.07
Vs. Right handed pitchers 35-29 930-1017 51.23 41-21-2 848-983-116 43.78
Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher 31-27 915-995 50.68 30-24-4 779-1007-124 50.41
Coming off lost vs. Right handed pitcher 15-11 485-576 51.7 13-11-2 409-573-79 52.09
TEAM: LOS ANGELES
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 4.38 3.8
Home Games Avg 4.06 3.82
Road Games Avg 4.71 3.78
Last 3 Games Avg 8.33 6.67
Last 5 Games Avg 8.2 5
Last 10 Games Avg 7.6 5
vs. Division Games Avg 4.7 3.49
vs. Conference Games Avg 4.51 3.8
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 3.48 3.81
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 4.15 3.95
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 4 3.89
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 4.73 3.67
After a Win Games Avg 4.37 4.39
After a Lost Games Avg 4.35 2.93
After a SU Road Win Games Avg 4.61 4.31
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 4.31 3.09
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 4.11 4.49
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg 4.39 2.78
After an Over Games Avg 4.5 3.78
After an Under Games Avg 4.14 3.83
After a Push Games Avg 4.9 3.6
4.88 3.99

 

At the end of the day, while both teams deserve to be here, only one can move forward. With the Cards already having one up in the series, we should expect the Dodgers to bring the kitchen sink tonight.

With the Cards bringing a 5-4 record to the table vs the Dodgers’ 6-3 record, it’s definitely LA that has momentum on their side. So long as they can get over last night’s hiccup, there is no reason why they can’t roll forward here tonight.

This will be a west coast game starting at 9:35PM EST and therefore the Cards might be up a little past their bedtimes. Could that have an effect on their gameplay? Not likely, this is a playoff match. With that said, it can’t help their case either, especially if this contest sees some extra innings.

Tune in and watch this promising contest featuring Lynn vs Greinke.

Good luck!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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