Kansas City Chiefs
Generated from 23 Previous Games
San Francisco 49ers
30.66 = 51.72
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +4
So far in 2014, as far as sports handicappers and sports bettors are concerned, it’s been an ironic point that there have been a slew more injuries than in past years, yet, most teams are actually ending up with over-performing 2nd stringers.
This has caused some interesting value in the spread-lines offered.
This has caused some interesting and counter-intuitive game results both SU and ATS.
At the moment, KCC has accrued 9 injuries to their original roster that won’t be playing today.
From the group of eligible injured, they have 2 that are out in WR Donnie Avery and S Eric Berry (the rest are all probable to show with the exception of CB Marcus Cooper). With 3 interceptions and 66 tackles in his ’13 season, Berry could leave a weakness in the Kansas City backfield. That said, being short Avery probably won’t be a point of note as Avery has only marked 2 receptions in each of his last 2 games.
The San Francisco 49ers have definitely been plagued with considerably more issues than most other teams as far as injuries go. The 49ers have 12 injuries to their original roster that won’t be playing today. From the group of eligible injured, they have 0 that are out with many probable and questionable to return today.
So both teams will have a few more tools today than they did last week with large segments of their rosters returning.
A key aspect to return today for the Chiefs is dynamo RB Jamaal Charles who ran for 92 yards and received for 16 in his last showing.
Probable to return today for the 49ers are WR Michael Crabtree and RB Frank Gore. Crabtree is significant to the 49ers offense as he’s caught for 230 yards so far this season while Gore has carried for 258.
Ultimately though, what we can learn from this is somewhat limited.
All of these key injuries played last week and most of them the weeks before. These are minor injuries that won’t affect bottom line too much. Fantasy Sports bettors could use these stats to speculate on individual performance, but as far as handicapping ATS goes, putting too much value in minor injuries is not a productive point of focus.
If we want to understand how injuries affect teams, if we want the bottom line, it needs to be done in an overall sample. It needs to be done by studying momentum.
San Francisco in week 1 came out the gate with a stellar performance. They bested the Dallas Cowboys in a 28-17 victory. This is a huge piece of why Vegas took 4 points from them when they set the line for today’s match.
But what’s the 49ers done since week 1?
- SF 49ers were bested 28-20 by the Bears in week 2.
- SF 49ers were bested 23-14 by the Cardinals in week 3.
- SF 49ers won 26-21 over the Eagles in week 4.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a bottom 10 defense, so 26 points needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The Eagles’ offense, on the other hand, is top 4 in the league, so limiting the Eagles to only 21 points, was actually a point of strength from the 49ers last week.
The bottom line look as though whatever injuries the 49ers have accrued through weeks 1-4 have kept them showing average with no real crippling affects.
If we were to rank SF 49ers performance in week 1 through 4, handicapping for their respective opposition, and comparative strength of their offense/defense it might look something like this:
|W1||Off: B||Def: A+||W2||Off: C||Def: D||W3||Off: C||Def: D||W4||Off: C||Def: B-|
The Chiefs have a completely different and opposite picture.
|W1||Off: E-||Def: E||W2||Off: D+||Def: C||W3||Off: A||Def: B||W4||Off: A-||Def: C|
This is where the injury narrative shows.
After handicapping these teams, we get to now understand who has depth and who is feeling the pinch of injuries.
In this case, while the narrative is relatively quiet as far as the 49ers are concerned, we can say, for certain, that the Chiefs have been left completely unaffected and have some real chances to pull ahead of the pack with a win here today.
Did you know?
- When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS played as Road Team- On Grass Surface 8-2-0
- When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS played as Underdog- Vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 4-2-0
- When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS played as Home or Away Team- Vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 5-3-0
- When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS played as Road Team- Vs NFC West Division 11-6-0
- When KANSAS CITY CHIEFS played as Home or Away Team- Vs NFC West Division 23-10-0
VALUE VALUE VALUE!
Considering the 49ers dynamite opening, considering the Chiefs’ very slow and dreary start, we can use this opportunity to capitalize some profit based on what these 2 teams have shown us recently.
To think of the Chiefs as an underdog here is absurd, and without question, this is the dog pick to bet on for Week 5 NFL Sunday Football.