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Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins – Preview for October 6th, 2014

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks 
SIDE :7

30.75

Vs.

Date: 2014-10-06
Time: 20:30:00

Generated from 3 Previous Games

Washington Redskins
Washington Redskins
O/U :45.5

26.25 = 57

 

Pick: Washington Redskins +7

 

Psychological:

QB Kirk Cousins showed some incredible promise in his first 2 starts as he stepped in for Griffin III but completely lost the plot last week. Considering that his talent is proven without doubt, not only will he be gunning for some ‘get back’ but he’s certainly got the tools to do it.

 

ATS Matchups:

This pick is all about the ATS Stats Database.

There is an interesting trend that we don’t usually get to see at 7 points.

When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a Home team – Playing on grass surface – During Week 4 to 8 – Coming off 1 ATS lost SU: 16-4-0
When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a Home team – After a division game – During the month of October SU: 14-3-0
When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a Home team – Vs Conference Opponent – After a conference game SU: 52-25-0
When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS played as Home or Away Team- Vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS SU: 6-10-0

It’s noteworthy to see this kind of support in the ML category.
Considering that it’s a team that Vegas has set at +7 is absolutely bonkers.

 

ATS Forecast:

Washington sits +4.5 ahead of the line.

 

ATS Raymond Report:

Definitely the Report is a bit problematic as far as the Redskins are concerned, but with that said, sports handicappers and sports bettors have +7 points to play with.

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKSTeam Name: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(Road Team)
Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS —– WASHINGTON REDSKINS
O/U: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (OVER ) —– WASHINGTON REDSKINS (UNDER )
Game Date: Monday,October 06 2014 8:30 PM
Last Game: win 20 – 26 vs DENVER BRONCOS
Current Game: Washington Redskins
Next Game: Vs. DALLAS COWBOYS
Stats & Trends: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
PVI Rating on Winning: 66.67%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 33.33%
Road Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 71.67%
Streaks: 1 SU Win – 1 ATS Win – 1 Under
Road Teams % covering the spread: 50%
Road Teams % of this game going UNDER: 49%
Road Teams Predicted Points For: 26
Road Teams Predicted Points Against: 23.33
Road Team
(SEATTLE SEAHAWKS)
When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS is a Road Team When Any NFL Team is a Road Team Differential % When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS is a Road Team,the O/U When Any NFL Team is a Road Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 45.5 (since 1996) 1-3-0 12-15-1 0.34 1-3-0 13-15-0 0.64
vs Non-Division opponent 10-4-1 192-182-14 0.58 9-6-0 210-174-4 0.43
vs Conference opponent 10-4-0 203-227-17 0.58 4-10-0 204-237-6 0.63
Playing in the month of October (since 1996) 28-38-2 64-59-1 0.46 35-32-1 67-53-4 0.46
Playing on Monday (since 1996) 3-5-0 16-22-0 0.4 2-6-0 18-20-0 0.64
Played as road Team 13-7-1 281-293-22 0.55 10-11-0 299-291-6 0.51
After a Non-Division Game 7-4-0 179-176-10 0.56 7-4-0 186-174-5 0.42
After a Non-Conference Game (since 1996) 56-60-4 80-60-5 0.51 56-61-3 81-62-2 0.48
Before a Non-Division Game 5-7-0 169-165-11 0.45 5-7-0 175-167-3 0.54
Before a Conference Game 8-5-0 181-199-10 0.54 5-8-0 197-188-5 0.55
vs NFC East Division Opponent (since 1996) 14-11-1 44-31-1 0.56 13-13-0 42-34-0 0.47
vs National Conference Opponent 10-4-0 140-143-11 0.6 4-10-0 153-140-1 0.6
Coming off vs AFC West Division Opponent (since 1996) 29-36-2 24-34-4 0.41 30-35-2 32-30-0 0.51
Coming off vs American Conference Opponent (since 1996) 55-69-4 119-134-10 0.44 61-64-3 150-110-3 0.47
Coming off 1 under (since 1996) 25-27-4 66-70-5 0.46 28-27-1 69-72-0 0.5
Coming off a win 9-5-1 141-158-13 0.53 8-7-0 153-156-3 0.49
Coming off a Home Win as a Favorite 7-2-1 86-90-8 0.58 6-4-0 92-90-2 0.45
With 14 days off (since 1996) 0-0-0 1-1-0 0.25 0-0-0 0-2-0 0.5
Coming off a 1 home stand (since 1996) 46-48-7 105-146-9 0.43 45-53-3 131-126-3 0.52
Coming off a 6 points win (since 1996) 5-4-1 6-13-2 0.39 5-5-0 10-11-0 0.51
Coming off a score 26 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 3-1-0 2-3-1 0.54 1-3-0 5-1-0 0.46
Coming off a score 20 points AGAINST in last game (since 1996) 2-5-2 14-15-0 0.35 2-6-1 17-11-1 0.57
Before Playing DALLAS COWBOYS (since 1996) 0-4-0 11-6-1 0.31 1-3-0 6-12-0 0.71
After Playing DENVER BRONCOS (since 1996) 10-4-1 8-6-1 0.6 10-4-1 6-9-0 0.44
vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS (since 1996) 3-4-0 10-9-0 0.48 4-3-0 9-10-0 0.48
Coming off a 1 ATS Win (since 1996) 24-33-4 80-82-9 0.43 33-28-0 89-81-1 0.47
Coming off a Home ATS win (since 1996) 33-45-6 5-3-1 0.47 44-40-0 5-4-0 0.46
Coming off a Win over AFC West division opponent (since 1996) 13-21-0 12-18-3 0.37 17-17-0 19-14-0 0.46
During week 5 (since 1996) 9-8-0 14-25-1 0.44 9-8-0 20-20-0 0.49
Coming off Back to Back ATS Lost (since 1996) 42-44-6 121-100-10 0.49 48-43-1 124-105-2 0.47
TEAM: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 27.67 22
Home Games Avg 31 18
Road Games Avg 21 30
Last 3 Games Avg 27.67 22
Last 5 Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Conference Games Avg 36 16
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 23.5 25
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 27.67 22
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Win Games Avg 21 30
After a Lost Games Avg 26 20
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 26 20
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 21 30
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After an Over Games Avg 23.5 25
After an Under Games Avg N/A N/A
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
26 23.33
WASHINGTON REDSKINSTeam Name: WASHINGTON REDSKINS(Home Team)
Line: WASHINGTON REDSKINS —– SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
O/U: WASHINGTON REDSKINS (UNDER ) —– SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (OVER )
Game Date: Monday,October 06 2014 8:30 PM
Last Game: lost 45 – 14 vs NEW YORK GIANTS
Current Game: Seattle Seahawks
Next Game: At ARIZONA CARDINALS
Stats & Trends: WASHINGTON REDSKINS vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
PVI Rating on Winning: 50%
PVI Rating on game going UNDER: 25%
Home Teams Strength of Schedule last 7 games: 50%
Streaks: 2 SU Lost – 1 ATS Lost – 3 Over
Home Teams % covering the spread: 44%
Home Teams % of this game going UNDER: 49%
Home Teams Predicted Points For: 26.96
Home Teams Predicted Points Against: 28.5
Home Team
(WASHINGTON REDSKINS)
When WASHINGTON REDSKINS is a Home Team When Any NFL Team is a Home Team Differential % When WASHINGTON REDSKINS is a Home Team,the O/U When Any NFL Team is a Home Team,the O/U Differential % on game going UNDER
Situations Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential % Last 3 season Last 3 season Differential %
ATS ATS O/U/P O/U/P
Total is 45.5 (since 1996) 1-6-0 15-12-1 0.34 3-4-0 13-15-0 0.55
vs Non-Division opponent 5-7-0 179-193-17 0.44 7-5-0 208-176-5 0.44
vs Conference opponent 6-8-0 224-204-19 0.46 4-10-0 204-237-6 0.63
Playing in the month of October (since 1996) 28-27-3 60-61-2 0.49 37-21-0 68-51-4 0.4
Playing on Monday (since 1996) 8-16-1 22-14-0 0.47 13-12-0 18-18-0 0.49
Played as home Team 9-10-0 290-281-25 0.48 9-10-0 298-291-7 0.51
After a Division Game (since 1996) 41-44-4 96-84-14 0.48 41-47-1 85-106-3 0.54
After a Conference Game 7-8-0 205-185-21 0.48 6-9-0 195-210-6 0.56
Before a Non-Division Game 4-7-0 163-169-11 0.42 7-4-0 178-161-4 0.42
Before a Conference Game 5-7-0 178-191-16 0.44 7-5-0 191-191-3 0.46
vs NFC West Division Opponent (since 1996) 21-24-1 24-41-8 0.39 24-22-0 32-40-1 0.52
vs National Conference Opponent 6-8-0 139-144-11 0.45 4-10-0 148-144-2 0.6
Coming off vs NFC East Division Opponent (since 1996) 38-44-4 24-34-6 0.41 41-44-1 33-31-0 0.5
Coming off vs National Conference Opponent 7-8-0 117-125-15 0.46 6-9-0 130-127-0 0.55
Coming off a 2 losing streak (since 1996) 9-10-2 30-34-2 0.44 8-13-0 33-32-1 0.56
Coming off 3 over (since 1996) 6-9-1 9-17-3 0.34 12-3-1 9-19-1 0.44
Coming off a lost 6-8-0 175-154-13 0.47 8-6-0 175-164-3 0.46
Coming off a Home Lost as a Favorite (since 1996) 6-10-1 16-25-1 0.37 7-8-2 28-14-0 0.43
With 10 days off (since 1996) 1-0-0 2-1-0 0.83 0-1-0 1-2-0 0.83
Coming off a 1 home stand (since 1996) 21-29-2 60-63-7 0.43 23-29-0 69-60-1 0.51
Scored 14 points FOR in last game (since 1996) 2-1-0 3-3-0 0.58 1-2-0 2-4-0 0.67
Before Playing ARIZONA CARDINALS (since 1996) 8-9-2 3-8-0 0.35 11-8-0 7-4-0 0.39
After Playing NEW YORK GIANTS (since 1996) 10-20-0 6-6-2 0.38 15-15-0 7-7-0 0.5
vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (since 1996) 4-3-0 6-12-1 0.44 4-3-0 9-10-0 0.48
Coming off a 1 ATS Lost (since 1996) 33-34-0 83-78-7 0.49 41-25-1 78-90-0 0.46
Coming off a Home ATS lost (since 1996) 15-20-0 38-42-2 0.45 17-17-1 48-34-0 0.46
Coming off a Lost over NFC East division opponent (since 1996) 21-29-1 11-19-3 0.37 27-24-0 21-12-0 0.42
During week 5 (since 1996) 8-6-2 26-14-1 0.57 8-8-0 21-20-0 0.49
Coming off Back to Back SU Lost (since 1996) 20-20-2 59-64-5 0.47 16-26-0 65-61-2 0.55
TEAM: WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
All Games Avg 23.75 27.25
Home Games Avg 27.5 27.5
Road Games Avg 20 27
Last 3 Games Avg 29.67 30.67
Last 5 Games Avg N/A N/A
Last 10 Games Avg N/A N/A
vs. Division Games Avg 24 41
vs. Conference Games Avg 24 41
vs. Non Conference Games Avg 23.5 13.5
vs. Top Ranked Games Avg 24 41
vs. Middle Ranked Games Avg 6 17
vs. Bottom Ranked Games Avg 41 10
After a Win Games Avg 34 37
After a Lost Games Avg 27.5 27.5
After a SU Road Win Games Avg N/A N/A
After a SU Road Lost Games Avg 27.5 27.5
After a SU Home Win Games Avg 34 37
After a SU Home Lost Games Avg N/A N/A
After an Over Games Avg 24 41
After an Under Games Avg 41 10
After a Push Games Avg N/A N/A
26.96 28.5

 

A Powerful And Logical Trend:

Across the first 4 weeks, we’ve ranked each team’s performance in terms of their offense and their defense. Teams with high scores vs teams with weak defenses scored lower than the teams that scored high vs teams with strong defenses.

Of all the teams that had a failing grade in both their offenses and defenses, (E E, E D, D E), we noted an extremely interesting trend!

Across the entire league, in the first four weeks, teams that had a failing grade in both their offense and defense in their past games, they came back to cover the spread the next week to the tune of 7-4!!

So in Washington’s case who got absolutely humiliated last week, it’s not really a point against them at all. While we could argue that poor performance is an indication of something underlying, the numbers beg to differ. It will be interesting to track and see if there is some significance to the teams that couldn’t pull out a win (ATS) the next week in terms of if they are the teams that are condemned to losing records, missing the playoffs etc.

Considering that many bettors look at the past week’s performance for their clues and queues, it makes perfect sense that in these instances the acute action that’s fading the failing team would cause the books to be forced to offer better odds than deserved, simply because of the massive amounts of action!

We will continue to track and grade each team’s offense and defense performance in comparison to their opponent’s strengths and see if this approach is worth consideration.

For now? We’re more than comfortable putting some trust in the ATS Forecast and ATS Matchups.

 

 

 

 

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