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Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning – Preview for October 9th, 2014

Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers 
O/U :5.5

2.58

Vs.

Date: 2014-10-09
Time: 18:35:00

Generated from 165 Previous Games

Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
SIDE :-190

3.25 = 5.83

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -185 (2 units)

 

Psychology:
Today the Tampa Bay Lightning will be enjoying their home opener against the visiting Florida Panthers. The Panthers had an absolutely atrocious preseason as they marked a dismal 10 Goals For, and, 22 Goals Against. Marking only 2 points, the Panthers were hands-down the worst team of the 2014-2015 preseason. We should expect to see Florida play with a sense of desperateness and urgency about their gameplay.

On the other side of the coin, the Lightning are in their own house on a home-opener, coming off a formidable preseason with a 5-1-0 record, 22 GF and only 8 GA; so, even if Florida buckles down and scores first, this will only stir Tampa to start taking them seriously.
Key Trades
In March 3rd, 2014, the Lightning managed a massive trade with the Rangers where they gave up Martin St. Louis, a 2nd Round 2014 draft pick, and a 1st round 2014 draft pick, for RW Ryan Callahan.

Martin St. Louis, being 10 years Callahan’s elder, was the point of the trade, but was it a good gamble? The Rangers are perched to go deep in 2015-2016 while the Lightning will have put all their eggs in the basket with Ryan Callahan. Good trade? Time will tell.

A huge cornerstone trade for the Florida’s Panthers was definitely Roberto Luongo on March 4th, 2014. It was questioned if Luongo’s Championship quality net-minding would still be relevant after signing with the Florida and having to depend on the Panthers’ defense, and indeed, it seems like a very good fit so far.

In 2011, Luongo lost a Stanley Cup series 4-3 vs the Bruins. Across 60 games played that season, Luongo marked a Save Percentage of 92.8 percent. The last time he marked those kinds of numbers was in 2004 with the Panthers. Last season, after the trade, Luongo played 14 games and tallied a shocking 92.4%.

Considering that Florida’s defense is typically considered rather porous, it is amazing that Luongo was able to mark his best numbers (albeit under a small sample) that he’d seen in 3 years.

Very Good to know:
Originally we felt that placing a 1 unit ATS ‘to risk’ wager and a 1 unit ML ‘to win’ wager was the key bets here; however, upon looking at the ATS Stats Database, it’s crystal clear that this would be a terrible idea.  In all database categories, it’s proven that both teams usually play this position to a 1 goal outcome.

These two ATS Matchup indicators are just a drop in the bucket:

When FLORIDA played as Underdog- Vs TAMPA BAY ATS: 34-17-0
When TAMPA BAY played as Home Favourite- Vs ATLANTIC Division ATS: 7-23-0

To sports handicappers and sports bettors, this would seem like a blowout and TBL -1.5 seems like a deal; but, ATS Stats warns us that a SU outcome is the better bet. So instead we’ll double up the units on a SU bet. With a team like the Panthers, playing at the Lightning’s barn, we don’t see Stamkos and company letting the Cats slip by here. Not on their home opener.
TBL ML -185 (2 unit ‘to risk’ wager.)

 

 

 

 

 

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