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San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) vs. Kansas City Royals (Shields) – Game 1 preview for October 21st, 2014

 

PICK: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -106

 

What a value shot! Sports Handicappers, Sports Bettors, and people gambling for money are licking their chops getting ready for this game 1 matchup between the Giants and the Royals.

The Royals may very well take this series, but they will definitely have their work cut out for them for this World Series, game 1, debut.

There are 101 ways to pick a winner and 102 things to talk about.

We could talk about the 10 point steam with the Giants at noon today which faded the 60% majority public betting Kansas City, but we don’t need to look to the market to understand that the Giants stand better.

In this case, it’s simply back to the basics. Pitching. Hitting. It’s that simple.

Let’s look at the facts:

The weak link in the Kansas rotation is Shields. Shields is marking a 5.62 ERA in his last 3 outings which doesn’t fare well for the Royals’ odds of winning this coming Tuesday. Some pitchers shine under pressure, some buckle. It looks like Shields is the latter. The former, however, would be the Giants’ counterpart in Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is nothing new to championship baseball or the Giants’ organization. Expect him to take Kansas City hitters to task.

While we do see Bumgarner with a 1.99 ERA in his last 3 starts (which is extremely impressive); lately, it’s actually Jake Peavy that’s been ruling the roost as far as the Giants’ starters go. In fact, this is actually a very odd point because it was supposed to be Peavy’s turn to start, but after a 4 day rest, the Giants are doubling up with Bumgarner.

  • Bumgarner has 15 ER in his last 9 starts.
  • Peavy has 8 ER in his last 9 starts.

What’s this mean?

It means that the Giants don’t feel that they need their sharpest pitcher for game 1. The Giants must be confident that Bumgarner can close out vs Shields, and with room to spare. In fact, with the mid-fare pitching of Ventura up next on the Royals’ rotation, I wouldn’t doubt if we don’t see Peavy again until game three vs Jeremie Guthrie (assuming Royals keep their rotation in order).

So at the end of the day, if the Giants are willing to bet their World Championship on Bumgarner having a good outing in game 1…shouldn’t that be a signal to us, the handicapping and sports betting community, as well?

Yes it should.

Especially when we look at the hitting of late.

While both the Royals and the Giants are well-rounded with a solid field, solid mound and are solid at the plate, the Royals edged out Baltimore in 2-1 victories in games 3 and 4 of their last series. The Giants, on the other hand, haven’t scored less than 4 runs since game 2 of their last series vs the STL Cards.

If that is the kind of timber that Shields is going to face, well then it’s no wonder that the Giants organization feels that they can bench Peavy for a game or two and use him later when they need him.

At the end of the day, it seems as if the Giants’ thinking is, “why win game one in a 8-1 blowout and risk losing the next, when we can win 5-3 in game one with Bumgarner and 5-4 in game two/three with Peavy.”

As for the WC winner? With Bumgarner and Peavy at the ready, we’d think that San Fransisco should be all set for a 2-0 headstart…but that’s the thing about teams like the Royals, isn’t it? They are here in the finals with the Giants because they’ve had almost a sort of “mojo force” guiding them since August/September. They have a winning mojo about them, and when you have that, you don’t need the stats to win. You don’t need superior pitching. You don’t need superior hitting. You don’t need superior field-minding. In fact, anyone following the Royals late season, could swear that “the Royals to win on game 7” is almost like a story predetermined by destiny.

At any rate, this series definitely won’t be done in four, and it’s tough to speak to the winner, but game 1, most certainly, must belong to the San Francisco Giants.

As always, bet responsibly, and Good Luck!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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