Generated from 6 Previous Games
New Orleans Saints
31.9 = 59.3
Atlanta Falcons +2.5
After 2 weeks, ATL are 0 Net points and NOS are -4 Net points. This is basically ‘even steven’ as far as the PF and PA go, however; with that said, the Saints are coming off 2 straight losses and will be hard pressed to fall in front of a home crowd tonight.
With Julio Jones listed as ‘probable’ in tonight’s matchup, this is guaranteed to be a slobberknocker.
The psychology of tonight is interesting. ATL has had a very rough time facing the Saints in the past years and
Once again we are seeing some comparable tells on this line.
When ATLANTA FALCONS played as Home or Away team vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 4-6 ATS, 3-7 ML
Based on the history between these teams, it seems that the Falcons might be looking at the Saints as though they’re a bigger beast than they really are. On the flip side, the Saints may very well have already chalked this up to an easy Win.
So we definitely give the psychological edge to the Falcons, further, playing the road in this instance will only amplify the idea that the Falcons will have to claw and tear their way to victory here. Given the champion pedigree of the NOS, It’s entirely possible that the Falcons feel that if they can take on the Saints here, then they have a shot to go all the way.
Saints have 65% of the bets on tonight contest, and that’s up from 55% in the last 24 hours. The most interesting point here is that at it’s highest peak of action, we saw the line move AGAINST the Saints. This raised flags as generally books move the line WITH the team that taking all the bets. Not to get too technical, but if there are 65% bets and they are all $1, and there are 35% bets but they are $10, that would explain why the line moved against the 65% majority. Reverse moves can sometimes be indicative of sharp money.
Then, if that wasn’t enough, 10 minutes ago we saw the sharps force the Atlanta line even further, from ATL +2.5 to ATL 0.
We’re going to take this move as confirmation that the public is once again way off the mark. The Bills pulled through with total ease on Sunday, and while it might be a little close, we’ll likely be seeing the same the Falcons edge out a win here tonight as well.
Key Positions in favor of the Falcons:
Key Positions in favor of the Saints:
At the end of the day, this will come down to ability. While it’s not out of socket to suspect that Saints will refuse to go down 3 straight…it’s also not out of socket to consider that the Falcons made good in 1 of their last 2 games and that they might be in better shape to take down this contest.
While the radio and articles and traditional cappers have ATL at severe odds when these teams face, we see that when Falcons play the Saints when they’re on the road, they’re a whopping 23-10 ATS.
So we like the Falcons pick here. The market backs it up, the Saints haven’t been winning, and ATSstats is clear that ATL is not toothless in tonight’s contest.
It will definitely be an awesome game to watch!