Generated from 9 Previous Games
SIDE :128.75 = 50.03
Sunday’s Pick: Washington Redskins +1
We should be calling this “NFL Thanksgiving Weekend” because Week 7 promises to have all the fixing and the trimmings!
In week 7, we were looking for the Buffalo Bills to continue their red-hot streak against Miami, but after Miami whooped Pittsburgh 30-15, we’re wondering if there was more to this than Ben Roethlisberger having a funky knee. When we see that kind of mojo, we pay attention. We’ve already seen the line move with the Dolphins, so even though the line is set at a mere BUF -2.5, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins make good and come off with the upset. Sometimes we have to be aware of our own blindspots and be able to stay versatile and change up plans. Buffalo bettors beware!
For all you total bettors, we haven’t forgotten about you. We’re sure that you already know what we’ll say, but we’ll say it anyway. New-Orleans-Saints. With one of the best points production machines in the league (#2) and one of the worst defense (#31), the Saints are guaranteed to supply a total that sails over the posted 51 points. The total has already climbed from 49 so there is no doubt that we’re not the only ones who love this “2-Front” opportunity for the total to go way OVER. With Kansas City Chief’s defense being mid-fare, and with the Saints having deep issues on their D-Line, this is a bit of a rare gift and we intend to make good on it.
Washington Redskins have been steady earning points and keeping their opponents from scoring. It’s the latter attribute that we feel will secure them the spread on Sunday; though, it should be noted that the Detroit Lions are no joke right now either though. After the Lions started with a 1-3 ML/ATS record, and with their most recent loss being to the 31st ranked Chicago Bears, they’ve bested Philadelphia and LA in their last 2 outings with 55PF and 51PA (+4 net). That’s a huge turn around and we see these kinds of things all the time. So Lions are turning themselves around meaning that this isn’t really a “gift” line with the ‘Skins at all.
Likewise, versus comparable competition, the ‘Skins won vs. some tough competition in their last 2 outings with 43PF and 30PA (+13 net).
The only difference here, really, is that Washington stops points a little better, (which is key because we all know that defense>offense), but also the Redskins have been doing this since day one and have proven themselves strong, and dependable.
Now, the Washington Redskins have had some issues in terms of injuries. They will be short TE Jordan Reed, and WR DeSean Jackson is questionable; but, we saw WR Jamison Crowder and WR Pierre Garson pick up the slack just fine last week, and TE Vernon Davis marked a solid 50 yards as well.
Lions are not without injury either. High production, TE Eric Ebron, has been out two weeks now, but the Lions have played their best ball in the past two weeks so it’s questionable how big a factor he is. Same with DT Haloti Ngata. RB Theo Riddick is out for Sunday and having had ran the ball for 171 yards across 50 carries in his first few games, he could be a small factor. Besides all that…listed as Questionable for the Lions are: DE Ezekiel Ansah, G Lawrence Warford, RB Dwayne Washington, LB Tahir Whitehead.
With the exception of a poor rush defense, the matchups run completely in the Redskins’ favor. When we look at the fact that they’re ranked 4th in the pass-offense and the Lions are ranked 23rd in pass-defense, it balances on Washington’s side of things.
Washington has a 12th ranked rush game and the Lions defense is ranked 21st.
Washington has an atrocious rush defense and a decent pass defense, but this point is greatly neutralized because the Lions’ rush game is ranked at a defanged 25th.
So all-in-all, Sunday looks like money this week and we intend to cash. All that’s missing is the beer and the pretzels!