Generated from 11 Previous Games
15.36 = 34.2
Today’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3.5
So once again, the Forecast has the spread dialed-in right down the middle. While the spread is set perfectly, the total is significantly low. Based on the forecast, we like the under pick here. Within this article, we’ll further examine this point to better understand if this game will fall O/U.
In our last article, we summed up 9 teams with unique qualities, and both Dallas and Minnesota were covered in our last article.
So here is the thing. We would actually take Minnesota to cover against quite a few teams…but Dallas just isn’t one of them. The reason for this is that despite Minnesota rising above all of their injuries, they have a particular weakness, where they would need strength, to overcome the spread against Dallas.
I’m talking about their pass game of course.
Dallas ATS barely managed to survive a near-lethal Washington air-game last week, where they edged out the spread in a 31-26 final, allowing almost 450 air-mailed yards.
When we look at the key factor in Dallas, we see it’s not their scoring. They’ve always been able to put points up because Dak Prescott’s skill and prowess in the box is at least on par with Romo and probably better…minus all the injuries.
So that leaves the defense. But we diagnosed Dallas’ issue as being weak against the pass-game, of which, the Minnesota Vikings are mediocre. With a 16th place pass game, it doesn’t look like Minnesota will be able to press the right buttons when facing down the lethal offense of Dak Prescott or the Dallas defense in week 12.
And that’s the reason we left out the Under. At the end of the day, we have a DAL team that allows plenty of scoring but always scores heavy as well. Fading the Forecast is not usually recommended, but given the fact that combined there are 10 defensive players that are questionable or out with injuries, given Dallas’ propensity to score big, given the fact that WR Stefon Diggs will be back in action taking passes, we can’t recommend the Under play here.
And that’s another thing…Dallas rush defense is as good as Minnesota’s rush offense is bad. So Minnesota will have to rely on their air-game 100%. This shouldn’t be a big problem because with Diggs back, and with Dallas having the 31st worst pass defense in the league…there should be plenty of air-balls and plenty of scoring. So despite the Forecast, we would lean to the Over pick in this contest.
And that’s the point. Despite having an atrocious defensive backfield, we see the ‘Boys routinely winning ML and ATS. They are 9-2 ATS indicating that they outdo Vegas oddsmakers consistently, and frankly, when we see teams with clear weaknesses (pass-d) that somehow always come up with not only the “W” ML but the “W” ATS as well, that smells like championship quality play. It’s still early in the season, but if we had to guess? Dallas vs Oakland for the SuperBowl.
Expect to see the Dallas program in full swing. Expect them to take plenty points against, but expect them to score heavy as well.