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Monday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) @ New York Jets (49)

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 
SIDE :1.5

Date: 2016-12-05
Time: 20:30:00

New York Jets
New York Jets
O/U :48.5

Today’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts -1.5

Monday Night will promise to be a real banger.

Jet’s are last in the AFC East facing off against the second last, Colts, in the AFC South.

The Colts are 12th in scoring to the Jets’ 28th…but the Colts are 27th in defense, to the Jet’s 20th in defense.

So with defense trumping offense, this is just about ‘even steven’ on the PF/PA front.

The significant place that Indianapolis Colts will have an edge on the New York Jets, will be with their 11th placed passing offense facing off against the Jets’ 22nd pass defense.

The significant advantage for New York will be their 4th placed rush defense.

So with pass > rush, we have to give the Colts a small advantage for their air-game.

So that’s overall. Now let’s deal with how these teams have been performing lately.

On November 27th, we saw the Jets show a new spark as they faced down the mighty New England Patriots in a very close game where they ended up losing, 22-17.

Jet’s are 3-1-1 ATS meaning that they’re consistently outperforming Vegas’ expectations. To us, this verifies and confirms the effort that we saw against the patriots.

Indianapolis went a scrawny 7-28 against the Steelers last week. Now, aside from that, they’re 4-2-1 ATS and have actually been doing fairly well. They beat the Titans  24-17 on Nov. 20th, they beat the Packers 31-26 on Nov. 6th.

When All teams played as any home/road team Coming off a game scored 7 points or less Last 3 years: 46-38 ATS

So first off, poor showings tend to produce favorable ATS evaluations in following weeks.

Second off, we have some key players coming off the injury list.

We actually took Pittsburgh to win last week and it was in large part to the fact that they’d be without Luck, and without Hilton, and a few others. Here we are, a week later, and QB Luck and WR Hilton are back in full effect. So can we expect to see the Colts back in full effect?

Yes, absolutely. Especially when we look at how the QB matchup:

  • Andrew Luck has thrown for 19 TDs and 8 INT.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 10 TDs and 13 INT.

A great rule of thumb is this: “When a QB has more interceptions than touchdowns, any lead they earn can quickly be brought down.”

So yes, absolutely we like Indianapolis clobbering the Jets.

No question.

When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS played as Road – During Week 12 to 16 – Coming off 1 game loss: 10-5 ATS

When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS team played as Road team as a Favorite – Vs Non Division Opponent – Before a conference game: 26-14-3 ATS

When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team – Vs Non Division Opponent – vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning %: 7-24-2 ATS

When NEW YORK JETS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog – Vs Conference Opponent – vs. opponent with a 41% to 50% winning %: 1-9 ATS, 1-9 ML

So at the end of the day, we have a Jets team that’s done better overall, but we have a Colts team that really has been doing extremely well lately when they’re healthy.

This is why ATS Stats tends to be invaluable. With these positional instances of where these teams are strong/weak, we can see that besides all of the obvious factors, the matchups section of ATS Stats itself tends to point to a Colts victory.

We’d feel safe recommending a 1/2 unit on the Colts here.