Generated from 18 Previous Games
Kansas City Chiefs
SIDE :3.525.09 = 43.84
Today’s Pick: Oakland Raiders +3.5/O45.5
Wow. This has got to be the most firework-packed TNF of the 2016 season so far. We’ve got two teams that have every capability of making it to the playoffs. What will make it particularly exciting? The scoring of course! Neither of these teams have much of a run defense at all. Chiefs ranked 27th in run defense, and Raiders ranked 29th in running, promises that they’ll be moving the markers with frequency. With that said, neither team has much of a run game either so that’s where it’ll be interesting to see what they come up with.
Due to the poor rush-defense/miscommunication, we definitely expect some of these run plays to break away into big gains, but frankly, we have no idea which team will get lucky but we can guess that fortune might call on the Raiders in this area.
As far as the rush goes, this is RB Latavius Murray for the Raiders, squaring off against RB Spencer Ware for the Chiefs.
- Murray with 140 carries, 553 Yrds, Averaging 4.0 yrds/carry, scoring 11 TDs.
- Ware with 163 carries, 734 Yrds, Averaging 4.5 yrds/carry, scoring 3 TDs.
So initially we might say, “whoa, wait a second, Chiefs have more yards on the ground and their run lines are deeper than the Raiders’,” but the real answer lies in the TDs.
It’s looking like Raiders go to the run game less, but that it’s their main weapon when pushing through the red zone. Chief’s, on the other hand, like to go with the air-game when scoring.
So here is the thing about that…both teams have abysmal rush offense and rush defense…but Oakland depends on their rush game in clutch positions. That says something.
So maybe the Chiefs have the pass-game locked up tight and they go to the pass-game because they’re simply superior in the air, and that explains things then, right?
While Chiefs have spread around their passes to a few more WR, Like Jeremy Maclin, Chris Conley, Tyreek Hill and maybe Albert Wilson, the Raiders have some superstar ‘go-to’ talent downfield. Oakland boasts Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Seth Roberts downfield.
Meet the Chiefs’ WRs:
- Maclin 376 yards, 30 receptions, 12.5 yrds on average, 2 TDs
- Conley 380 yards, 34 receptions, 11.2 yrds on average, 0 TDs
- Hill 481 yards, 50 receptions, 9.6 yrds on average, 5 tDs
- Wilson 234 yards, 29 receptions, 8.1 yrds on average, 2 TDs
Meet the Raiders’ WRs:
- Crabtree 785 yards, 67 receptions, 11.7 yrds on average, 7 TDs
- Amari Cooper 981 yards, 68 receptions, 14.4 yrds on average, 4 TDs
- Seth Roberts 332 yards, 31 receptions, 10.7 yrds on average, 5 TDs
In other words, no contest on the offensive pass game.
Here is the hiccup though…yup, you guessed it…injuries.
LB Shilique Clahoun has been a huge part of the Raiders defense, and he’s out for another week.
S, Karl Joseph, who has done a lot of the work in the back field, including a 9-tackle outing vs the Texans in week 11, is out.
DT Stacy McGee, is also out with ankle issues.
So that’s 3 defensive instances that are out for certain.
Then we have LB Cory James who’s questionable with limited practice.
And then we have, finally, DT Darius Latham and G Kelechi Osemele who both practiced but are both expected to play.
So at this point, while we barely like Raiders to cover, it’s the OVER 46 that makes the most sense. Losing Safety Karl Joseph, with 60 tackles this season, is a very big deal and we’ll have to see how the Raiders adjust. With the Chiefs depending on their air-game, this could be the opening that they feel they need to connect some plays.
One thing is certain, however, while both teams are showing some mojo, it’s Oakland who’s consistently been on a tear and who’s had the lion’s share of that ‘mojo magic’ of late.
With the Raiders sitting on a 10-2 record, and the Chiefs sitting on a 9-3 record, both fighting for 1st place in the AFC, this will be a total and complete slobberknocker. We think both teams will employ a fast-paced offense and both teams will have the idea of jam-packing as many points onto the scoreboard as possible.
The fact that neither team has much of a run-game will make the aerial aspect of this contest that much more important and appealing. The Chiefs have the home field “advantage” but in these kinds of instances, we’re not so sure it’s an advantage at all. With everything possibly on the line here, every time the crowd cheers, the Chiefs will feel like they have it in control and they will sit back on lead, and/ let their foot off the gas. On the other hand, every time the Raiders hear the crowd cheer, they’ll be woken up and it will be a continuous reminder that they still have a game to win.
So with everything on the table, we have to like the Raiders and take the points as the dogs, as well, the O46 looks palatable. But basically, consider this to be a mock SuperBowl.