Green Bay Packers
Generated from 5 Previous Games
SIDE :528.34 = 53.18
Today’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys -5
Our first and foremost ‘go-to’ point here…you guessed it:
- Green Bay Packers are 6-1 ATS Last 7 Games
- Dallas Stars are 1-6 ATS Last 7 Games
It’s been a consistent and valid point of consideration, that when even Vegas can’t accurately predict how well a team will do, that ‘said’ team is then literally extraordinary, and many times the public betting trends / population variances have lots to do with this phenomenon; thus, this is basically free points for the points bettors.
Our second ‘go-to’ point here, is the recent points production of these teams:
- Green Bay has routinely topped 30 points Last 5 Games.
- Dallas Stars’ scoring is spotty. They’ve only capped 30 points one time in the Last 5 Games, and have struggled to find double-digits on 3 of those 5 instances.
Team strength vs. weakness matchups:
- GBP 7th pass offense vs. DAL 26th pass defense. (GBP is +19 pass off.)
- DAL 23rd pass offense vs. GBP 31st pass defense (DAL is +8 in pass off.)
Overall Pass Matchup = GBP +9
- GBP 20th rush offense vs. DAL 1st in rush defense. (GBP is -19 rush off.
- DAL 2nd rush offense vs. GBP 8th in rush defense. (DAL is +6 rush off.)
Overall Rush Matchup = DAL +25
Generally, the rule is Pass>Rush..but is Pass 9 > Rush 25?
That’s very tough to say. Probably not. No.
Notice, Dallas is looking very green today, Packers are red, could there be some problems cropping up here for the Packers’ outlook? We would have to say, yes. It’s very important to understand yard production and where teams’ strengths lie, not only in the overall matchup of the teams themselves, but with injuries that occur within the rosters of each team themselves.
For instance, if your team is on top of the league because you have an unstoppable defense, well, then losing your star QB probably isn’t really the biggest deal. Lots of people might fade that team due to the “1st stringer IR” issue, but they would only help drive that line higher where you could snatch it at a more-than-fair market price.
Dallas Cowboys just might be a perfect example of this.
- GBP: WR Jordy Nelson
- DAL: LB Justin Durant, DT Thronton (Q), Terrell McClain (Q)
So basically, to sum up the roster issues, Jordy Nelson, who caught for over 150 yards just a few weeks ago, and 124 yards 2 weeks ago before his injury last week, is the key to the Green Bay scoring mechanism. Without him, there is no telling where their points will come from.
If they try to run the ball using their ground game, they’ll run smack dab into the middle of the Cowboys’ #1 Rush Defense in the league. Without that ground option, and without their #1 WR, Packers could run into some big problems.
The case could be made that Dallas has injuries on their defense, but Cornerback Morris Claiborne is cleared, DT Tyrone Crawford is expected to suit up.
Football experts are sticking to their story that this is not the same Packers that Dallas trounced 30-16 in October of this season last year, and we would agree, but the problem is, back then, they had a dependable go-to WR, and Dallas hadn’t yet proven themselves as the #1 run defense, and #2 run offense. No. This doesn’t look to bode well.
Let’s take a look at what the atsstats.com has to say about the respective positions of these teams:
When ANY NFL Team played as a Road team – After a conference game – With 6 days off – Scored more than 30 points in back to back games – Scored 13 points or less AGAINST in their last game: 9-25-2 ATS
When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog – After a non division game – Coming off vs National Conference opponent – vs. opponent with a 80% or more winning % – Allowed 8 – 13 AGAINST in their last game: 6-23 ML
No matter who you go with, this game will be fireworks start to finish. With this kinds of matchups, with the narrative of the strengths of the Dallas defense and the missing WR in Green Bay’s air-game, add in a -5 spread against the ‘Boys, and this will prove to be a dynamite contest.
At -5, Dallas should have this.