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FANTASY BASEBALL STATE OF THE UNION – Bargain Sale

By Des Boodram

@boxscoreprophet

With the MLB season a third of the way through, we have a good cross section of current data to make educated game and player prediction moving forward.  My goal – to make you money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball while helping you gain bragging rights in your season long leagues as well.  If there’s money on the line in your season long league, I see no reason not to go for it, and at the end of the day we all want the same thing when it comes to fantasy sports – the WIN.

Like the QB position in football I’m a huge advocate of getting it right on with your pitcher in the daily game.  In season long, I’m taking a pitcher with a top three pick and two within the top 5, even though offense is way more sexy consistently, but what’s more prestigious a double digit strikeout performance or multi-HR night four times a season?  The long ball is fun, but because the top tier of pitchers is so much better than that the next tier, a monster line by a pitcher is worth its weight in gold regardless of format. Let’s examine some crazy trends in the first two months and assess whether or not they can hold and what that means.

 

Scherzer vs Sale 

Both are great and both have similar numbers.  Sale has a slightly better K rate and lower peripherals while neither have offenses that go crazy when they each take the mound, but Sale was purchased on draft day at a much lower price stamping him with significantly more value.  Scherzer went on average 13th-15th over all in a 12-man league and Sale went 22nd-24th also costing several hundred dollars less on draft day.  In the daily game, Sale was a steal early on and if you capitalized great, but now both players are butt expensive,  I’m not touching either regardless of the narrative.   (Sale is currently getting rocked by his former team).  In the daily game, neither is worth the pretty penny and your better served spending up of offense.  In the long run however, as both teams compete for their division, look for Mad Max to get more wins and surpass Sale in both ERA and WHIP.

 

Everything Bigger In Texas 

Whether your name is Dallas or you play in Houston, if you’re last name is Keuchel, you are putting up monster number even with a trip to the DL.  Keuchel currently playing on the best team in the majors has had a head scratching bounce back that should make owners extremely nervous.  He has a ton of wins, which will level off and his K rate leaves much to be desired.  He’s a sell high candidate, as the true Keuchel was the Keuchel we saw last season.  It’s difficult to pass up that low ERA and WHIP, but again he’s hard to trust, and the K rate really does kill you.  If you have a good bullpen, give up some ERA and WHIP for a high K rate guy like Chris Archer or Zack Greinke or Stephen Strasburg.

 

Wrong Santana 

It’s been years since a Santana put up monster from the mound in a Twins uniform, Ervin Santana has done just that.  There’s no way anyone thinks his will continue so enjoy your free agent GEM while he lasts.  Props on the 7 wins though and the ERA below 2.00 a slow clap is in order.  This is not sustainable and my guess anyone in your league you would want to trade him two already knows this.  He is in play in DFS however… depending on the matchup of course.

 

Bull Pen Bravado 

It’s no surprise that the two best teams in the majors also have the two best bullpens.  The Colorado Rockies led by the rebirth of Greg Holland have been dominant, and in season long, you are reaping the benefits of a steal on draft day.  Houston rolls six deep, and if you’re looking to play a game line on the Astros, the projected workload of this pen must absolutely factor in.  This pen wins games, and crushes the under on over/under bets, so don’t let your dreams get shattered here.

 

Thanks For Nothing

Jeff Smardzija has been a dumpster fire all season long… but his outstanding K rate makes him a viable GPP play in the daily game.  Owners have to stick with him in the hopes that the wins keep on coming, but aside from all those punch outs feel free to keep moving.  The same goes with Danny Salazar who has been demoted to the bullpen.  K rate is amazing, but that’s it.  You can do better gamers.

 

On The Rise 

I got two for you that you absolutely need to buy low on and roster in the daily game.  Adam Wainwright ain’t going anywhere, he’s a sure fire starter who has been good this season, but will get better with age.  He pitches in front of good defense and is supported by a great offense.  You should be able to get him for pennies on the dollar as he’s been deceivingly good of late.   The Toronto Blue Jays are heating up and so is Marco Estrada who has 25 Ks and two wins in his last three starts.  The sub one WHIP is nice too… so get on him quickly.  In the daily game, he’s a GPP low-owned dream with a home game against the Yankees.  You can thank me next.