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WSOH:  TEACHING MOMENTS FROM WEEK 1

Des Boodram

@boxscoreprophet

 

If there’s one thing we should now know, it’s that Vegas absolutely knows what the hell they are talking about.  What seemed like obvious picks (ATL, PIT, HOU) turned out to be anything but.  Now we must realize that Vegas is not messing around, and their lines are specifically implemented to create doubt, uncertainty and drive you bat sh*t crazy until you see starts.  I’ll be the first to admit I thought there were at least 4 obvious covers in Week 1, and only one came to pass.  An insane amount of competitors went 0-7 and another large percentage went 1-6.  It’s only week 1, but starting in such a hole has to be discouraging.

 

Current leader and WSOH member Elroysports was as close to perfect on the week without being perfect, finishing 6-1, with their only blemish being a one-unit last minute screw-job by the Browns to prevent the cover by Pittsburgh.  The current leader was the only player in the top  17 to choose the Steelers to cover the spread, and was on their way to a perfect week until Corey Coleman scored with three minutes left.  There were a dozen factors as to why the Steelers didn’t cover here, and it really doesn’t matter if Vegas factored them all.  All that matters is they are experts at accounting for game flow, and all the surrounding events that impact this variable.  Had Le’Veon Bell participated in training camp, there’s not doubt he puts up more than 32 yards.  Should the Steeler’s defense been able to clamp down a rookie making his first ever NFL start???  I say yes, but the driver for me was Cleveland getting roasted twice by Pittsburgh last season, and having an even  better defense this season.    It is what it is, but there has to be a teaching moment for here.  Dozens of WSOH players chose PIT to cover, and most of them are at the bottom of the standings.  We all have a lot to learn.

 

There’s something to be said about switching up your card to not only on games, but on over/under totals as well.  The top three  in the standings after week 1 all put 7 units down on an over/under line.  Props to Elroysports, znolan, and Chibears2016 for putting units down on as many as four games when they chose to play the over/under.  Most participants avoided this option, but after 7 out of the top 10 participants bet at least one over/under game, this is something you are going to need to make a regular part of your weekly research.

 

There are clusters of participants at the bottom of the standing, but there are some major gaps at the top.  The fact that Elroysports is the only participant to go 6-1 is quite remarkable, a testament to how tough this week truly was on the gamer.  There are several 5-2 records, but even those vary based on confidence points allocated.  The derived truth from this is quite simple, and it is that you have s shot always.  The swings in this game are huge, so feel good about your chances, even if your first week can be likened to a Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign.

 

Keep on , keepin’ on gamers, we all have a lot of work to do.  I’ll see you at the end of this week, when I’ll have some further insight on the consensus picks.