Week five is upon us, and we are staring down the barrel of several crap-shoot games that scream for the common bettor to stay away from. In light of recent injuries and roster changes, there are also some clear opportunities to get in on some hot reads, but of course the public has a lot to say about it. I tend to stay contrarian with the field, but with the bottom six teams playing each other I’m taking the warning signs seriously. I’d hate to be Vegas right now and trying to lay down spreads on the Chargers at Giants, 49ers at Colts and Jets at Cleveland. All six teams are unpredictable, dealing with injuries and have shown limited big play ability. I want no part of these games, but I do think some games are super chalky making them hot reads this week.
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs New Your Giants
The Giants are bad, but not nearly as bad as their record suggests. I think that Vegas has the spread just right, but in light of Chargers offensive potential, I still think that the trip east is going to be too much for them. I don’t see the Giants blowing the Chargers out, but I see them covering easily. Eli Manning has been great the last two games, and the Chargers are depleted in the secondary. I expect big games from OBJ and Brandon Marshall, as well as a ticked off Giants defense that is much better than their record indicates. I’m not touching this game, but if I had to, I’m going with the Giants to cover at home.
Buffalo Bills +3 vs Cincinnati Bengals
We all saw what the Bills have done to both the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos the last two weeks, two teams that have made it to the Super Bowl the last two years. That small litmus test is enough to dismiss the Bengals of covering at home, because many of you think that the Bills will win outright. The Bills will limit possessions by slowing down the game with Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy, while keeping their defense rested. I do think the Bengals have righted the ship offensively and their defense is healthy so this game is not as much of a slam dunk as it seems. I do think the win outright, but I’m not as confident as the field.
New York Jets +1 vs Cleveland Browns
Vegas is basically saying this is a pick em game and I believe the Jets are the better team across the board. I won’t be surprised if the Browns win at home, but thus far New York is better. The Jet have a chance to go 3-2 in this one which would shock the world, so they will be all in no doubt. The QB play of the Jets is better, and I expect this one to be a low scoring affair… Jets by a field goal
Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs Houston Texans
I’m truly surprised this game isn’t higher up on the list. The Chiefs who doused the Patriots in New England by double digits are in a virtual pick em’ game with the Texans who couldn’t handle their business at New England. The Texans were impressive dropping 50+ points on the Titans, but I’m thinking the Titans don’t have it this year. I could be wrong, but that KC defense is good enough to give a red hot Deshaun Watson fits.
Ravens vs Raiders (40 points)
Take the under and don’t look back. The Raiders were having trouble scoring before Carr went out, and the Ravens are already offensively inept. This game is super gross this week with E.J Manuel getting the start and two great defenses set to take the field. 17-13 Raiders.
Good Luck Gamers!!