Through all of my research thus far, I am concluding that this is the toughest week to call to date… even tougher than week 1. Vegas odds makers seem to be in a groove on both outcome games and over/unders. There are a bunch of unknowns that impact games deeply, and no doubt are causing Vegas fits. But it’s time fight through and trust the field. For the most part they can validate how they feel quite easily and with sound rationale. Going contrarian is a true risk/reward, making “fighting through” all that much more difficult. I love prepping for the week, and staying with it…. And I especially love seeing what games all of you are attacking in a given week. It truly has been the highlight of my week, as predicting game outcomes in the NFL is more challenging than in any sport and certainly more difficult than fantasy football.
Atlanta +3.5 at New England
I totally get this, and I am on board with the field here, though my confidence units will be at the 1-2 range. Bill Belichick has historically been underestimated in these spots, but the field has overestimated the Patriots all season long. We’ve also over estimated the Falcons as well. This offense is not nearly as offensive as it was last season. The Patriots are a different team as well, and though they may pull it together, I don’t think it will be in this game. The Falcons lost to the Dolphins last week blowing a 17-0 lead in typical Falcon fashion, so let’s not pretend they are that great going into Foxboro. I believe they can cover, and win outright with New England’s secondary being banged up with both Gilmore and Eric Rowe being out this week. This is a big game with a lot on the line, but I think ATL wins out right though you are covered with a last minute field goal by NE.
Washington +4.5 at Philadelphia
This is a divisional game with two great QBs who can put up points. I do trust the Redskins secondary much more than the Eagles, so I think they can keep it close. Carson Wentz had his lowest output of the season in Week 1 against the Redskins, though it was on the road, and it was Week 1. I do think the Eagles win this game, but because it’s a divisional game that can get qwirky I’m staying away.
*** BREAKING NEWS – Josh Norman declared out for Monday…. Philadelphia COVERS!!***
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs Pittsburgh
The Steelers have finally found out how to let their offense run through Le’Veon Bell, and that is going to be bad news for opponents starting with Kansas City. I know this is a divisional record, but I think that the Steelers continue with their offensive mojo in this one. The Bengals will get their points as well, but the Steelers win and cover.
Dallas -6 at San Francisco
San Francisco +6 vs Dallas
This is a bit of a crazy one, because the field in this game is perfectly split. San Francisco who is at home has been playing teams close, so there is good reason to roll with them. The 49ers are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games and the Cowboys have been gone over the O/U total in their past 5 games after the bye week. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel go off in this one and the Cowboys cover.
OVER/UNDER SPECIAL – Seattle at New York 40 pts.
Anything could happen, but I think both defenses will keep opposing offenses in check. The Giants are a prideful bunch and their defense at home is still a playoff defense. Seattle’s offense has yet to put together a game this season that convinces me they have arrived. Their O-line issues have persisted, and more than two trips to the end zone is unlikely. The Seattle defense won’t be caught off guard by Evan Engram like Denver was. Seattle wins 20-13.