November 12th, 2017
There’s a lot of moving parts this week, with byes, injuries to factor in, a key suspension or two and some teams that are playing like they are checked out. What Vegas does with a team like the New York Giants who seems to have the behavioral acumen of a rebellious teenager that hates their parents. Either way, we’ve got some work to do and a lot to consider when making our picks.
Seattle -6 at Arizona
I know this game is over, but I thought I’d acknowledge the late score by Arizona that moved this outcome into a push as Seattle blocked the extra point. Even worse, Jeremy Lane who had been traded a week earlier was the one who blocked it. Talk about a bad beat and more confirmation that Vegas knows what they’re doing. Pretty much anyone who gambled real money on this game was taken to the house by the house.
Jacksonsville -4 vs Los Angeles Chargers
This game makes me nervous, because the Chargers are much improved and the field is telling that they have faith in Blake Bortles to lead average receivers against a much better defense than the numbers reflect. If a team commits to stopping Leonard Fournette, what can Bortles really do. On the flip side the field could be saying they believe that regardless of what Bortles does, the Jacksonville defense will carry this team. This has caught up with Denver, and my fear is that it will catch up with Jacksonville who is hosting a Chargers team that is better than their record reflects. I’m fading the chalk on this one.
Indianapolis +10 vs Pittsburgh
The field is too smart here – a double-digit underdog for the home team doesn’t jive. Jacoby Brisette is deceivingly better than people think, and the Colts won outright last week. I do think Pittsburgh’s offensive juggernaut wins out, but not as convincingly as it seems.
Chicago -5.5 vs Green Bay
This is a Bears team that has beaten two top playoff caliber defenses in Carolina and Pittsburgh and although they were trounced by double-digits by the Packers earlier, it’s important to know that Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing in this one. Talk about one player moving a line… Vegas has no faith in Green Bays offense or defense for that matter. Home field factors in and Chicago covers in this one. It should be noted that the field is pretty much divided on this game. Low confidence point should be considered.
Atlanta -3 vs Dallas
The Zeke Elliot absence doesn’t move the line at all really, which is crazy that unless you’re a QB you are not going to have that much of an impact on the game. It’s hard to bet against a super hot Dak Prescott in this one, who has been killing it on the ground and in the air. This game has shoot out potential and could really go either way so I’m fading this one… and yes my confidence in Matt Ryan has dried up until he proves otherwise.
OVER/UNDER SPECIAL – New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers (42 points)
UNDER: The Giants who have been an embarrassment on both sides of the ball are still a prideful bunch. They will commit to stopping Carlos Hyde and keeping scoring to around 17 points. The Giants are up against a defense that’s improving every week. No one on the Giants roster is scary and so though they may win, I don’t see them putting up a lot of points doing so. Giants win 23-17
Good luck Gamers.