November 30th, 2017
If we’re being honest this was one the easiest weeks to call all season at the World Series of Handicapping football contest. This slate of games was not that great, but don’t take my word for it. Look at the results of the field in Week 12. We had a record number of five and six wins and of course a perfect outcome. Even the low scores weren’t terribly low, and those with lower scores are so far gone, they were clearly taking uncalculated risks. I have no idea how Vegas actually fared with NFL games this week, but if the success of the field is any indicator the house has some ground to make up. The end result is that the pack really didn’t’ gain much ground (because everyone did well), and though there were some major swings that impacted the leader board, everyone basically held serve.
Props to Allredb1 who has received mentions in the past who was 7-0 in Week 12 and now has an extra 50 bones to their name. To me it’s absolutely crazy to pick a team, and also pick the over in that same game. Allredb1 did exactly that with Minnesota this week picking them to cover as well as the over against Detroit. This implies that you think the game is going to be a bit of a shootout, and when a shootout takes place usually the games are close. New England/Miami made perfect sense to do this, because the Patriots will drop 30 on pretty much everybody while having a bad enough defense to give up 20 points. Minnesota and Detroit however have both proven to have consistent defenses AND offenses. There’s no put-downs here just props… because even though Minnesota controlled the entire game, Detroit still made it close… but not close enough to cover. In fact three of the top scorers in Week 12 had MIN with assigned confidence points of 7… so good on them, because the way Matthew Stafford plays in the 4th quarter is scary. The mixture of game outcomes vs OVER/UNDER is astounding as well going 4 and 3 respectively. That’s an amazing split… so props to Allredb1 and xfirejects for great weeks
Overall, Allredb1’s monster week in fact propelled them into first place while 2nd place overall KdubbNM and 3rd place overall Romoney1977 both finished with negative scores, creating a monster 50 point swing that has resulted in almost a 64 point lead. Both KdubbNM and Romoney1977 lost major ground on an easy week, but have been so dominant throughout the course of the season that they are still at the very top of the standings. I’m not sweating the delta between 1st and the field because I’ve seen how these things go, and with 5 more weeks, I expect some more swinging to be done. Check out who’s lurking in 6th place… Elroysports with a solid record, but even better than their record is their ability to assign confidence points correctly, as there are several below them that have better records. It’s one thing to get more picks right than wrong, but it’s a totally different thing to be so astute that you finish in the positive. Remember…. You can attempt to pick 7 games incorrectly and you’d still have similar odd of finishing with the same point total.