February 3rd, 2018
With New England favored by four points, experts across the country are torn on which way to go, and Vegas wouldn’t have it any other way. But life is good for you if you don’t want to bet the game itself and the betting public has in excess of 400 prop bets that they can put their money on. The purists love betting the game, but there are some clear angles on the prop bets as well. To be fair the line did start at New England -6 but due to an a bunch of early money on the Eagles it moved down incrementally until settling on -4 for the Pats. My Vegas Sportsbook still have the game at 4.5, which makes sense to the bettor. Let’s break down the game and take a shot at some of my favorite prop bets.
New England (-4) vs Philadelphia
On a neutral site, indoors, and with limited playoff experience it’s amazing to me the expectations that have been put on the Eagles with Nick Foles as their QB and coming the high of the NFC championship game. The Eagles certainly deserve to be there having the best season of any team in the NFC as well as #1 seed. They did what they had to do, even when it wasn’t pretty and losing some major cogs including Carson Wentz. Think of what you are going against here though. Foles vs Brady, Belichick vs Pederson, experience vs hardly any. It just doesn’t add up. I totally expect a Patriots-esque conservative first quarter with little to no scoring, before Tom Brady covers his football mask with a surgical mask and starts to carve up a weaker Philadelphia secondary. Both Eli Manning and Russell Wilson were lights out hitting multiple slant and go’s for big gains.
Quick release is the name of the game and Brady invented the game marginalizing a great D-line by the Eagles. Defensively the Patriots will bend and not break as they have all season long. They will adjust in the 2nd half locking down Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. The Philly Kicker will have a field day, but trading FGs for TDs will force the Eagles into taking big shots in the 2nd half. History tells us that the Patriots have never won by more than six points, so this game is destined to be close, which is great logic given how slow the Patriots typically start in championship games.
The Eagles are either going to put an official end to the New England Dynasty or New England is finally going to win one of these games convincingly. There is no middle ground here — Pats win 31-24.
My Five Fave Props
1.) Super Bowl MVP – if the Patriots win this thing, is there any doubt that Tom Brady will be holding up his fourth SB MVP? Sure a running back could dominate or a defensive player could go for two INTs, but the odds at -110 are favorable.
2.) Will there be a Flea Flicker Attempt? – YES +140, NO -180
I’m going no with this one, simply because both the Eagles and Patriots attempted three combined in their championship games. Both teams are game planning for it and both opposing coaches and OCs respect that.
3.) Which Team Will Commit The First Penalty
This is easy money for me. The Eagles are the younger more inexperienced and more nervous team. There is no way they aren’t false starting or holding on their first possession. Not to mention defensive holding… easy money
4.) OVER/UNDER of 48
I’m taking the over here — based on my game prediction. I think the Pats hit the 30-point mark, and the Eagles will figure how to score on the Patriots. Two TDs and two FGs seem realistic for Philadelphia, so one would think that the over is the play here.
5.) Will There be a Missed Extra Point.
The answer is an emphatic no. Indoors with two great kickers, this is an easy one as well. You gotta make the money where you can. Even though Gostkowski missed one last season, you can bet he will be on point in this one.
Good Luck Gamers.