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WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING WEEK 3 RECAP – Rising From The Ashes

By Des Boodam

website: www.worldseriesofhandicapping.com

OK, so the tag title may be a bit of a dramatization, but sometimes that’s how you feel when you follow up a terrible week, with a decent week.  Even if the week isn’t really decent after all, it still feels good to have an average week, if the previous week was a disaster.  Week 2 was a disaster for much of the field, and feel like I represent that field at its core.  Naturally, I’d rather represent the upper echelon of the field that resides at the top of the standings, but clearly it’s not in the cards, so I’m fine saying that the middle of the pack is my happy place… for now (sad face).

 

This week’s board saw seven combatants finish with 6-1 records creating quite a  log jam at the top of the weekly standings.  Hawkdawg finished with a solid 25.90 to lead the way, while familiar faces BookieKillerBucky and leaderboard mainstay AllredB1 were close behind with 23.80 points.  I’m a huge advocate of locking down those confidence assignments when it comes to allocating points.  There were a handful of 5-2 records that outscored 6-1 records, because confidence point assignments were more buttoned up.  I know, everyone has a story about  their bad beat or beats for the week — but the fact remains you gotta assign your confidence values accurately.

 

I was feeling a lot of clarity with the over/under lines from Vegas about how games should swing.  I believe that predicting over/unders has become almost as difficult as predicting game winners against the spread.  I get it though, once you nail the over or the under, it doesn’t matter who wins, and there’s a lot of freedom in not living in that tension.

My feeling this week was that there were a lot of injuries and final hour player shuffle ups that I saw as opportunities to play over/unders.  For example – I thought that Carson Wentz starting combined with Jay Ajayi injured would lead to a conservative game plan for the Eagles resulting in an easy under.  Turns out that I was right, but it was stuff like that in several games that I thought impacted several games.

The field wasn’t really in agreement on this, as the top dogs this week really stayed away from OVER/UNDER lines.  6-1 finisher Hawkdawg, bet against the spread on every game and was successful.  The next two weekly leaders each only had one over/under game selected.  I’m not sure where you stand, but you are not convicted about 7 games each week, don’t force it – check out the over/under lines.

Props to Sdiddy who currently is averaging a 6-1 record over three weeks, which is both amazing and difficult to do regardless of the format.  AllredB1, appears to buying their time by hovering near the top of the standing before making their move from 2nd to 1st.  After that – there’s a 10 point drop off  so we all have to see what it looks like to chip away at an early season deficit.    We can do it!!

 

Good Luck Gamers

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