The Index.
Every Schedule, Ranked.
We power-rated all 32 teams off three years of results, then ran every 2026 slate through the model. Think of it as a market: each schedule gets a number, and the higher it climbs, the heavier the lift to your win total.
One number, three years of receipts
Win totals lie. A 10-win team that won six one-score games isn’t the same as a 10-win team that buried people. So we don’t rate teams on record alone — we blend it with what the scoreboard said they deserved.
Three equal years
2023, 2024 and 2025 each count the same — enough history to fade a fluke season without burying a true trend.
Wins + Pythagorean
Actual wins get blended 50/50 with Pythagorean wins from points for and against, stripping out luck in close games.
Sum the slate
SOS is the sum of all 17 opponent ratings. Division rivals appear twice — because you have to beat them twice.
2026 SOS · Toughest to Softest
The bar is each schedule’s difficulty relative to the field; the chip is its tier. The spread from the league’s hardest slate to its easiest is only about 22 rating points — roughly a win and a third across a season. Schedules are more balanced than the talk-show panic suggests, but the edges still matter.
| # | Team | Power | Strength of Schedule | Avg Opp | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Chicago Bears CHI | 7.81 | 9.07 | Brutal | |
| 02 | New England Patriots NE | 7.32 | 9.04 | Brutal | |
| 03 | Carolina Panthers CAR | 4.90 | 9.03 | Brutal | |
| 04 | Arizona Cardinals ARI | 5.82 | 8.97 | Brutal | |
| 05 | Los Angeles Chargers LAC | 9.12 | 8.95 | Brutal | |
| 06 | Los Angeles Rams LAR | 10.24 | 8.85 | Brutal | |
| 07 | Miami Dolphins MIA | 8.55 | 8.78 | Brutal | |
| 08 | Green Bay Packers GB | 9.95 | 8.76 | Brutal | |
| 09 | Buffalo Bills BUF | 11.85 | 8.70 | Tough | |
| 10 | New York Giants NYG | 4.87 | 8.67 | Tough | |
| 11 | Las Vegas Raiders LV | 5.37 | 8.66 | Tough | |
| 12 | New York Jets NYJ | 5.23 | 8.60 | Tough | |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings MIN | 9.65 | 8.57 | Tough | |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers SF | 10.08 | 8.56 | Tough | |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys DAL | 8.79 | 8.52 | Tough | |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons ATL | 7.48 | 8.47 | Tough | |
| 17 | Tennessee Titans TEN | 4.55 | 8.43 | Average | |
| 18 | Washington Commanders WSH | 7.02 | 8.42 | Average | |
| 19 | Kansas City Chiefs KC | 10.40 | 8.40 | Average | |
| 20 | Indianapolis Colts IND | 8.34 | 8.36 | Average | |
| 21 | Denver Broncos DEN | 10.26 | 8.36 | Average | |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB | 9.16 | 8.31 | Average | |
| 23 | Houston Texans HOU | 10.20 | 8.28 | Average | |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers PIT | 9.34 | 8.26 | Average | |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals CIN | 8.02 | 8.25 | Soft | |
| 26 | Seattle Seahawks SEA | 10.37 | 8.20 | Soft | |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars JAX | 8.66 | 8.14 | Soft | |
| 28 | Baltimore Ravens BAL | 11.23 | 8.10 | Soft | |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns CLE | 6.29 | 7.84 | Soft | |
| 30 | New Orleans Saints NO | 7.28 | 7.82 | Soft | |
| 31 | Detroit Lions DET | 11.51 | 7.75 | Soft | |
| 32 | Philadelphia Eagles PHI | 11.18 | 7.75 | Soft |
Power = the team’s own three-year rating. Avg Opp = SOS divided by 17. Tier buckets the field into quartiles of eight.
2026 NFL SOS · Three Parts
All 32 teams ranked by 2026 schedule difficulty, plus the model.
The five buried by the bracket and the five who caught a break.
Every team’s 18-week gauntlet, color-coded by opponent.
2026 NFL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE · MODEL v1.0
Methodology: each team’s power rating is the equal-weighted three-year average (2023-2025) of actual wins blended 50/50 with Pythagorean wins derived from points for and points against (exponent 2.37). A team’s SOS is the sum of its 17 opponents’ power ratings, with division opponents counted twice. Ratings are retrospective and do not account for 2026 roster, coaching, or quarterback changes. For entertainment and informational purposes only — not betting advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
