Winners & Losers.
The schedule-makers played favorites. Five teams got handed a buzzsaw; five caught a soft landing. Here’s who the bracket buried, who it blessed, and what it means for their numbers.
Buried · 5 Toughest Schedules
These slates pile up top-eight opponents and double-dip on loaded divisions. Note the pattern: most of these teams aren’t great themselves, which is exactly how a schedule becomes a death march.
1 Chicago Bears
- SOS 154.2 · Power 7.81 · Avg Opp 9.07
- Opponent mix across 17 games:
- Brutal 5Tough 5Average 5Soft 2
ATS ANGLE — Bears backers are paying for hype into a buzzsaw — five Brutal-tier dates plus a doubled-up NFC North. The schedule says temper the win-total ceiling.
2 New England Patriots
- SOS 153.7 · Power 7.32 · Avg Opp 9.04
- Opponent mix across 17 games:
- Brutal 6Tough 4Average 4Soft 3
ATS ANGLE — New England’s rebuild meets the league’s second-toughest slate. Improvement may not show up in the record — judge them by margins, not wins.
3 Carolina Panthers
- SOS 153.5 · Power 4.90 · Avg Opp 9.03
- Opponent mix across 17 games:
- Brutal 5Tough 5Average 6Soft 1
ATS ANGLE — Carolina draws a brutal road through two strong divisions. A young roster gets no soft launch; live-dog value in spots, but season-long it’s a grind.
4 Arizona Cardinals
- SOS 152.4 · Power 5.82 · Avg Opp 8.97
- Opponent mix across 17 games:
- Brutal 8Tough 4Average 1Soft 4
ATS ANGLE — Eight Brutal-tier opponents — tied for the most in football. The Cardinals’ number is inflated by the calendar; fade the over-eager win-total.
5 Los Angeles Chargers
- SOS 152.1 · Power 9.12 · Avg Opp 8.95
- Opponent mix across 17 games:
- Brutal 8Tough 3Average 2Soft 4
ATS ANGLE — A genuinely good team handed eight top-eight foes. The Chargers are the rare squad whose own quality is partly masked by the schedule — buy the team, sell the record.
Blessed · 5 Softest Schedules
The flip side — and notice how many strong teams live here. That’s the NFL formula at work: the best records earn lighter cross-over draws, compounding their edge.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
SOS 131.7 · Power 11.18 · Avg Opp 7.75
Opponent mix across 17 games:
- ATS ANGLE — Softest slate in the league paired with a top-four roster. Philly’s win-total should be respected — this is the cleanest path to a gaudy record.
2. Detroit Lions
SOS 131.8 · Power 11.51 · Avg Opp 7.75
Opponent mix across 17 games:
- ATS ANGLE — Detroit’s reward for dominance: the second-easiest schedule. Big-margin spots are on the menu; the over on team wins has real support.
3. New Orleans Saints
SOS 133.0 · Power 7.28 · Avg Opp 7.82
Opponent mix across 17 games:
- ATS ANGLE — A middling roster gets a gentle calendar. Won’t make them contenders, but it props up the floor — fewer landmine weeks than the record-watchers expect.
4. Cleveland Browns
SOS 133.2 · Power 6.29 · Avg Opp 7.84
Opponent mix across 17 games:
- ATS ANGLE — Light schedule, heavy questions at the position that matters. The calendar gives Cleveland a puncher’s chance to beat a modest number.
5. Baltimore Ravens
SOS 137.6 · Power 11.23 · Avg Opp 8.10
Opponent mix across 17 games:
- ATS ANGLE — Elite team, fourth-softest slate. The Ravens combine a high floor with few brutal dates — a recipe for a top seed and a fat win-total.
Most Brutal-Tier Opponents
Beyond the raw SOS number, this counts how many times a team lines up against a top-eight power-rated club. Arizona and the Chargers top out at eight apiece — nearly half their season against the league’s elite.
| Team | Brutal-tier dates | Count | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals ARI | 8 | 152.4 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers LAC | 8 | 152.1 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders LV | 7 | 147.2 | |
| San Francisco 49ers SF | 7 | 145.6 | |
| New England Patriots NE | 6 | 153.7 | |
| Los Angeles Rams LAR | 6 | 150.5 | |
| Chicago Bears CHI | 5 | 154.2 | |
| Carolina Panthers CAR | 5 | 153.5 | |
| Miami Dolphins MIA | 5 | 149.3 | |
| Buffalo Bills BUF | 5 | 147.9 |
The Series
2026 NFL SOS · Three Parts
All 32 teams ranked by 2026 schedule difficulty, plus the model.
The five buried by the bracket and the five who caught a break.
Every team’s 18-week gauntlet, color-coded by opponent.
