By Ron Raymond – ATS STATS
Let’s kick off the week with data-backed insights and a side of situational awareness. We’ve got streaks, SOS, and value indicators all lining up like a perfectly called pitchout.
🏟 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
📍 PNC Park | 6:40 PM EST
- Line: Pirates -220 | Total: 7
- Pitchers: Brad Lord (WSH) vs. Paul Skenes (PIT)
- Quick Hit: Pirates limp into this one on a 3-game skid with their bats going cold (4 straight Unders), while the Nats come in with a couple of L’s of their own. Skenes has a C.O.W. of 67.76%, and Pittsburgh holds a value edge—barely. Not a sexy matchup, but sharp bettors may smell a low-scoring grind.
⚾ San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
📍 Citizens Bank Park | 6:45 PM EST
- Line: Giants -120 | Total: 8.5
- Pitchers: Landen Roupp (SF) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
- Quick Hit: Giants are rolling at 11-4 SU with a 7-3 last-10 clip. Phillies can’t say the same—just 2-8 O/U lately. Roupp brings a solid 49.18% C.O.W. while Philly’s SOS is soft. Watch for the Giants’ bats to stay hot early.
🔥 Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
📍 George Steinbrenner Field | 7:05 PM EST
- Line: Rays -120 | Total: 8.5
- Pitchers: Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Shane Baz (TB)
- Quick Hit: Both squads are middle of the pack, but the Red Sox’s O/U trend (5-11-1) screams Under city. Keep an eye on Baz—he’s due for a strong outing.
💣 Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
📍 Yankee Stadium | 7:05 PM EST
- Line: Yankees -135 | Total: 8.5
- Pitchers: Seth Lugo (KC) vs. Carlos Carrasco (NYY)
- Quick Hit: The Bronx Bombers are hitting the Over (11-4 O/U), while KC is trending Under. Carrasco’s 54.22% C.O.W. and the Yankees’ SOS (61.22%) give them an edge. Royals could be a sneaky dog play.
🇨🇦 Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
📍 Rogers Centre | 7:07 PM EST
- Line: Blue Jays -110 | Total: 9
- Pitchers: Grant Holmes (ATL) vs. Easton Lucas (TOR)
- Quick Hit: Jays are 9-7 SU but just 2-8 O/U in their last 10. Braves are struggling at 4-11 SU overall. Both teams trending Under, but the bats are due. Watch that C.O.G.O. creep up.
💥 New York Mets vs. Minnesota Twins
📍 Target Field | 7:40 PM EST
- Line: Twins -115 | Total: 8
- Pitchers: Clay Holmes (NYM) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
- Quick Hit: Mets are red-hot (8-2 last 10), while the Twins are 3-7. Both teams are on Under streaks. Something’s gotta give. Holmes has the edge in confidence (BULLISH VIC), so look for the Mets to keep swinging.
🐯 Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
📍 American Family Field | 7:40 PM EST
- Line: Tigers -160 | Total: 7
- Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. Tyler Alexander (MIL)
- Quick Hit: Detroit has quietly won 7 of their last 10. Skubal is trending up. Brewers are .500 but in a rut. Value is leaning Detroit if you can stomach the juice.
🚀 Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
📍 Busch Stadium | 7:45 PM EST
- Line: Astros -120 | Total: 7.5
- Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. Sonny Gray (STL)
- Quick Hit: Both teams are 7-8 SU, but Houston has the value edge. Cardinals trending Under, and this could be a pitcher’s duel. Sharps may like the Under here.
🐻 Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
📍 Petco Park | 9:40 PM EST
- Line: Padres -165 | Total: 7.5
- Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs. Dylan Cease (SD)
- Quick Hit: San Diego is on fire (13-3 SU). Cease with a strong 57.47% C.O.W. and a BULLISH VIC. Cubs aren’t bad, but wrong time to catch these Padres.
🌄 Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
📍 Dodger Stadium | 10:10 PM EST
- Line: Dodgers -350 | Total: 8.5
- Pitchers: Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs. Dustin May (LAD)
- Quick Hit: Dodgers are laying massive chalk. Rockies are reeling, but beware—Dodgers are only 4-6 in their last 10. Could be a spot to consider the Run Line or fade public parlay money.
💬 Final Word
Today’s MLB slate is loaded with data-driven edges. Favorites have been overperforming this week, but don’t ignore teams with bullish value indicators or sneaky contrarian totals. Trust the process, use the Raymond Report, and don’t fall for the public bait.
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Stay sharp and cash those tickets.
— Ron Raymond
