Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
Tip-Off: 8:30 PM ET
Line: OKC -9 | O/U: 230.5
Moneyline: Pacers +350 / Thunder -455
By Ron Raymond – ATS STATS
Welcome to Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals, where the Cinderella story Indiana Pacers take on the Western Conference powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder in what looks like a true David vs. Goliath showdown. The Thunder are favored by 9 points tonight on their home floor, and the betting market isn’t shy about where the sharp money is going — OKC opened strong and remains the chalky pick.
Let’s break it down.
🟨 Indiana Pacers – Still Dancing
Indiana’s run through the East has been electric — and unexpected. At +350 on the moneyline, the Pacers enter tonight as heavy underdogs, but they’ve thrived in this role. They’re 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10, and their offense has been firing, averaging 116.8 PPG over that stretch.
But here’s the catch: they’re just 1-9 ATS after a one-game win streak and are coming off a 125-108 win over the Knicks. History says they don’t stack ‘em well. Plus, in their last 3 visits to Oklahoma City, the Pacers are 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS.
Key Trends:
- Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall
- 11-4 to the OVER in their last 15
- 5-1 ATS this season as a road dog of +9 or more
🟩 Oklahoma City Thunder – Thunderstruck Favorites
OKC has been nothing short of dominant all season. A ridiculous 80-19 SU record and 64-34-1 ATS shows they’re not just winning — they’re covering. In the last 10 games, they’re 7-3 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS, and some bettors are wondering if the line tonight is a bit inflated.
But… this team is 43-8 SU at home this season. Let that sink in.
Defensively, they hold opponents to just 107.3 PPG — top-5 in the league — and are coming off a 124-94 thumping of the Timberwolves. They’ve had a full week off, which may be a slight concern in terms of rust vs. rhythm.
Key Trends:
- Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite
- 10-2 ATS after a game that stayed under the total
- 23-13 ATS vs. Eastern Conference teams
🔥 The Edge: Raymond Report Forecast
- Score Prediction: Oklahoma City 121.09 – Indiana 112.59
- Projected Total: 233.68 (leans OVER)
- C.O.W. (Chances of Winning): OKC 73.91% | IND 33.33%
- VI Edge: OKC -7.45 (market value still with Thunder)
📊 Best Bet Recommendation
If you’re laying chalk, do it early. OKC has dominated as a big favorite, and with 7 days off, they’ll want to come out and send a message. However, the Over 230.5 also offers sneaky value — both teams average over 116 PPG in their last 10.
Pick: OKLAHOMA -9
Lean: OVER 230.5
🎯 Final Thought
Indiana’s playing with house money. OKC’s got the keys to the vault. If the Thunder don’t let the layoff dull their edge, this could get out of hand quickly. Expect a statement game from the home side.
