📍 Truist Park, 12:15 PM ET
🎯 Line: ATL -1.5 (-162) | O/U: 9
Two struggling clubs wrap up a weekday matinee with the Arizona Diamondbacks sending Brandon Pfaadt to the bump against Atlanta’s Grant Holmes. Both teams are 3-4 SU in these starters last 7 starts, but that’s about where the similarities end.
🐍 Diamondbacks Outlook (30-31 SU, 29-30-2 O/U)
Arizona’s riding a quiet 3-game win streak, including a gritty 2-1 win last night against Chris Sale. Pfaadt has quietly put together a decent run, going 6-4 in his last 10 outings, but he’s still allowing 5.4 runs per game over his last 7.
The bats have been heating up—averaging 5.4 runs over their last 5—and Arizona is a sneaky 9-7 SU after a win this season. Even more telling? They’re 4-0 SU vs teams with a win % between 41%–50%, which is exactly where Atlanta sits.
📊 Road Underdog Angle: Arizona is 9-9 SU as a road dog this year with a +0.22 run differential. That’s not elite, but it ain’t chump change either.
🪓 Braves Breakdown (27-33 SU, 22-32-6 O/U)
Atlanta has lost 3 straight and is flatlining offensively. They’re averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last 5 and are a miserable 2-11-2 to the UNDER over their last 15.
Grant Holmes hasn’t been sharp, posting a 4.33 RA (runs against) in his last 3. The Braves are also just 5-9 SU vs. NL West opponents and a paltry 1-5 SU when coming off a loss in Game 2 of a series. This is not the Atlanta of old.
🔥 Warning sign: The Braves are just 7-16-3 O/U vs. RHP, and Pfaadt qualifies.
🧠 Raymond Report Forecast
- Game Prediction: Atlanta 4.72 – Arizona 4.22
- VI (Value Index): Arizona +146 | Atlanta -184.74
- C.O.W. (Chances of Winning): ATL 58.12% vs ARI 38.91%
- C.O.G.O. (Chance of Game Going Over): 61% for both clubs
- Streaks: ARI – 3W | ATL – 3L
🔍 Betting Lean
If you’re looking for value, Arizona +1.5 or ML at +136 isn’t the worst idea. Braves are overpriced with no offensive rhythm and are being carried by a name, not a performance. Underdog bettors—this is your type of game.
If you’re looking at the Total, the public will lean UNDER, but with both teams hitting the 61% C.O.G.O. mark, there could be some sneaky Over 9 value.
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