- Matchup: Boston Red Sox (87-71) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (90-68)
- Pitching Duel: Brayan Bello (RHP, BOS, 11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. Louis Varland (RHP, TOR, 4-3, 3.10 ERA, spot/bullpen start)
- First Pitch: 7:07 PM ET – Rogers Centre
- Line: TOR -132 | BOS +108 | O/U 8
🔎 Raymond Report Breakdown
🔥 Current Form
- Boston: 4-1 last five games, averaging 6.2 runs per game. Bello has been consistent — 7-3 over his last 10 starts with a 3.10 RA average.
- Toronto: Slumping hard, 1-6 in their last seven, scoring just 1.86 runs per game. The Jays’ bats are ice cold, and the bullpen has been stretched thin.
⚾ Pitching Matchup
- Brayan Bello (BOS): True rotation anchor, 11-8 record with a 3.34 ERA. Keeps the ball on the ground and has been Boston’s best road option down the stretch.
- Louis Varland (TOR): Normally a reliever, making a spot start. While his ERA looks sharp (3.10), he’s not stretched out, so expect a shorter outing with heavy bullpen usage. That could be dangerous given Toronto’s bullpen struggles.
📈 Value Index & Edges
- Forecast: Toronto 4.22 – Boston 3.86
- C.O.W. (Chance of Winning): TOR 56.5% vs. BOS 42.2%
- SOS (Strength of Schedule): Jays 61.2% vs. Red Sox 44.9%
- MVI: BOS (Bullish) vs. TOR (Bearish)
Boston is playing with confidence, while Toronto is trying to stop the bleeding with a patchwork pitching plan.
📌 Situational Angles
- Boston: 18-7 SU vs. AL East opponents this season; 9-3 SU after winning Game 2 of a series.
- Toronto: 19-8 SU after a loss, but bullpen fatigue is a red flag.
- Totals: Toronto divisional games have leaned Over (15-6-1 O/U).
🎯 Raymond Report Lean
- Side: Boston +108 — Bello’s stability and Boston’s bats give them the sharper value.
- Total: Lean Over 8 — Varland’s short leash means bullpen-heavy night, which often drives late scoring.
📝 Final Word
The Red Sox are trending up while the Jays are piecing it together. Bello is the proven starter, Varland is a bullpen patch — advantage Boston. If Toronto’s bats don’t wake up early, this series could swing 2-1 Red Sox tonight.
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