Raymond Report Sports Betting System – Strength of Schedule Edition
(Through Week 5 Results)
🔝 Top-Tier Teams (PR 0.63 – 0.83)
These are the market leaders — teams performing both on paper and against quality opponents.
| Team | W-L | SOS% | PR | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-1 | 48% | 0.64 (0.83 L3) | Hottest team in the AFC; impressive 3-0 stretch with a strong SOS bump. |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4-1 | 52% | 0.66 | Still elite — their consistency and efficiency keep them at the top. |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-1 | 46% | 0.63 | Quietly one of the most complete teams through five games. |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4-1 | 58% | 0.69 | Slight dip from 4-0 dominance, but still one of the league’s most balanced clubs. |
| Detroit Lions | 4-1 | 39.33% | 0.60 | Toughness + efficiency. Slightly soft SOS, but the PR backs up the hype. |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-1 | 45% | 0.60 (0.67 L3) | Physical, gritty, and getting better. A buy-low candidate in the market. |
🔎 Sharp Note: Jacksonville’s Last 3 PR (0.83) leads the entire league — red-hot trend signal.
⚖️ Middle-Tier Movers (PR 0.50 – 0.60)
These teams are stuck in neutral — capable of big wins but inconsistent when stepping up in class.
| Team | W-L | SOS% | PR | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 2-1-1 | 52.5% | 0.60 | Still tough to peg, but metrics show they belong. |
| Rams / Seahawks | 3-2 | 59-60% | 0.60 | NFC West parity — every game a war, every team a live dog. |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3-2 | 47% | 0.54 | Quietly trending up; beware undervaluation. |
| New England Patriots | 3-2 | 47% | 0.54 (0.67 L3) | Belichick magic isn’t dead — metrics stronger than perception. |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-1 | 36% | 0.58 | Record inflated by light SOS. Fade candidate when schedule stiffens. |
| Denver Broncos | 3-2 | 56% | 0.58 | Trending up after a brutal early stretch. |
| Washington Commanders | 3-2 | 43.33% | 0.52 | Average across the board — very matchup-dependent. |
🔎 Sharp Note: Patriots and Broncos are Power Rating risers the last two weeks; both improving efficiency and balance.
📉 Fading Teams / Market Overreactions (PR 0.40 – 0.50)
Teams that look “okay” in the standings, but SOS + PR say they’re not as good as the record implies.
| Team | W-L | SOS% | PR | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 4-1 | 24% | 0.52 | Winning, yes—but weakest schedule among AFC elites. Overvalued in spreads. |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2-3 | 52% | 0.46 | They’re not broken, but they’re not themselves either. |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2-3 | 60% | 0.50 | Still finding rhythm; high SOS excuses some struggles. |
| Carolina Panthers | 2-3 | 50% | 0.45 | Scrappy but average. Good situational play, not long-term trust. |
| Chicago Bears | 2-2 | 52.5% | 0.51 | Up from earlier weeks — metrics trending neutral, not bullish. |
| Houston Texans | 2-3 | 52% | 0.46 | Young team improving; PR solid vs expectations. |
🧊 Cold & Collapsing (PR Below 0.40)
These teams are either playing weak schedules or underperforming across the board.
| Team | W-L | SOS% | PR | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 1-4 | 56% | 0.38 | Lack of offensive consistency sinking them. |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-4 | 56% | 0.38 | Can’t win close ones — PR reflects offensive inefficiency. |
| Cleveland Browns | 1-4 | 53.33% | 0.37 | Rough SOS, but the offense isn’t pulling its weight. |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1-4 | 52% | 0.36 | Brutal month. SOS is fair, but they’ve underperformed expectations. |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-4 | 52% | 0.36 | Same story as Baltimore: high potential, poor results. |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1-4 | 62% | 0.41 | Schedule’s been tough, but that offense is lifeless. |
| New York Giants | 1-4 | 46% | 0.33 | Bottom 3 in both PR and execution. |
| New York Jets | 0-5 | 61% | 0.31 (0.25 L3) | League’s weakest team by Raymond Report metrics — SOS gives minor sympathy. |
💰 Raymond Report Betting Angles for Week 6
- Overvalued Favorites: Buffalo, Colts, Chiefs – inflated lines due to record, not performance.
- Value Dogs: Patriots, Broncos, Texans – PR trend lines rising; undervalued in market.
- Fade Alert: Jets, Giants, Ravens – inefficiency outweighs effort.
📊 Raymond Report Summary Index (Week 6 Snapshot)
| Tier | PR Range | Betting Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Top Tier (A+) | 0.63 – 0.83 | Buy – consistent, efficient, proven |
| Upper Mid (B) | 0.52 – 0.60 | Neutral – matchup-driven value |
| Lower Mid (C) | 0.45 – 0.51 | Risky – regression likely |
| Bottom Tier (D/F) | ≤ 0.40 | Fade – no consistency or identity |
👉 Smart Bettors Read the Market – Sharp Bettors Read the Raymond Report.
Full Power Rating & SOS breakdowns updated weekly at ATSStats.com — where data turns into dollars. 💰
