Let’s kick off Week 7 of college football with the Raymond Report Cheat Sheet, breaking down early-week action using VI, C.O.W., and C.O.G.O. indicators to expose potential market overreactions and totals edges. Remember — we’re not chasing favorites; we’re chasing value.
Missouri State (-2.5) vs Middle Tennessee (O/U 51)
Two struggling teams meet, but C.O.G.O. 76% suggests an Over game script. Both sides are off back-to-back losses, and Missouri State’s VI at 0 screams even matchup.
📊 Tidbit: Both defenses have allowed 24+ in four straight — this total might be short.
Lean: Over 51 (Value Index model: 49.09 but weather + pace point Over).
Louisiana Tech (-6.5) vs Kennesaw State (O/U 45.5)
Tech is 5-0 ATS and trending A-Bullish in the Raymond Report. Kennesaw finally found rhythm vs. MTSU, but step up here.
📈 Tidbit: Louisiana Tech’s last 4 wins have all gone Under despite winning margin avg of 13.
Lean: Louisiana Tech -6.5 (trust the streak). Totals: Under 45.5 also live per model (41.6).
East Carolina at Tulane (-6.5, O/U 55)
Tulane defense has been the moneymaker (4-1 SU, 1-4 O/U). ECU riding 3 straight Unders too.
💡 Tidbit: C.O.G.O. 77% + total 5 points below model projection (60.7) — Over could sneak in here if ECU’s offense wakes up.
Lean: Over 55. Side lean Tulane -6.5 (C.O.W. 76% edge).
Southern Miss (-3.5) vs Georgia Southern (O/U 60.5)
Golden Eagles offense clicking (42 pts last week), but C.O.G.O. 32% and model at 54.6 hint at regression.
🧠 Tidbit: Georgia Southern has allowed 35+ in 3 straight road games.
Lean: Southern Miss -3.5; correlated play Under 60.5.
Jacksonville State (-8.5) vs Sam Houston (O/U 55.5)
Jacksonville State’s defense inconsistent, but Bearkats are 0-5 SU and ATS — brutal combo.
⚠️ Tidbit: Sam Houston’s 0-5 ATS with 5 straight losses = Bearish indicator in the Raymond Report.
Lean: Jacksonville State -8.5. Totals: Pass (model aligns at 57.5).
South Florida (-1.5) vs North Texas (O/U 67.5)
USF quietly 4-1 SU/ATS, while UNT’s been a sneaky Over team. C.O.W. 55% vs 37% points toward Bulls’ efficiency edge.
🔥 Tidbit: South Florida’s VI flatlined at 0 — market still undervaluing them.
Lean: South Florida -1.5 and Over 67.5 (both teams can trade 30s).
Rutgers at Washington (-10.5, O/U 59.5)
Scarlet Knights 5 straight Overs, but Huskies have gone Under in 3 of last 5.
📉 Tidbit: Washington’s VI at -10.14 = slight sell sign at current spread; Rutgers offense quietly efficient vs middle-tier defenses.
Lean: Rutgers +10.5. Total lean: Under 59.5.
Fresno State (-6) vs Colorado State (O/U 46.5)
Bulldogs 4-1 SU but only 2-3 ATS — market catching up. Rams 1-4 SU but SOS 66.7% (tough schedule).
📊 Tidbit: C.O.G.O. 63% and model 45.9 — slight Under correlation.
Lean: Under 46.5; small edge Fresno ML in parlays.
UL Lafayette at James Madison (-17.5, O/U 46.5)
JMU remains elite defensively (0-4 O/U run). UL-Laf a rollercoaster — 3 Overs in last 5, but step up in class here.
📈 Tidbit: JMU VI -19.57 — top-tier confidence rating this week.
Lean: James Madison -17.5 and Under 46.5 (model 45.4, aligns perfectly).
Stanford at SMU (-19, O/U 55.5)
Both teams off wins, but Mustangs have been ATS kryptonite (0-5 ATS).
💡 Tidbit: Stanford’s VI +19.1 indicates they’re due for a correction — SMU can’t keep failing to cover.
Lean: SMU -19. Totals: Over 55.5 slight lean if Stanford contributes.
