It all comes down to this — Game 5 in Seattle. The winner moves on to the ALCS, the loser goes golfing. Both clubs have traded punches all series, but tonight we get an ace-on-ace showdown: Tarik Skubal vs George Kirby — two control artists, one elimination game.
Detroit Tigers (91-78) @ Seattle Mariners (92-74)
Line: DET -1.5 (-138) SEA +1.5 (+113) Total: 6
Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (L) 13-6 2.21 ERA vs George Kirby (R) 10-8 4.21 ERA
Market Snapshot
- Forecast (Raymond Report Model): DET 4.64 – SEA 2.41 (O/U 7.05)
- C.O.W.: Detroit 71.43% | Seattle 25%
- C.O.G.O.: 39% → leans Under 6
- Cycle/Form: Detroit Neutral (10D) | Seattle Bearish (2D)
- SOS (last 7 games): SEA 69% vs DET 35% — Mariners have faced stiffer pitching.
- Line Movement: Opened DET -120, now -138 → sharp money leaning Tigers.
Situational Edges
| Category | Detroit | Seattle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 SU | 5-5 | 5-5 | Even |
| Last 10 O/U | 3-6-1 (Unders) | 4-5-1 (Unders) | Under trend |
| Off Win/Loss Split | DET After Win 21-24 | SEA After Loss 20-13 | SEA bounce-back potential |
| Pitcher Form (L7 starts) | Skubal 5-2, 3.43 ERA | Kirby 4-3, 3.29 ERA | Even – Slight DET edge |
| Home/Away | DET 44-42 road | SEA 52-31 home | SEA comfort zone |
| Night Games | DET 30-33 | SEA 52-28 | SEA thrives under the lights |
Raymond Report Angle
Skubal’s been nails — 15-5 SU last 20 team starts, and the Tigers have covered seven of their last ten as a short favorite. Seattle, meanwhile, has lost five of their past seven when facing left-handed pitching, and their offense has gone quiet (3.1 runs avg last 7).
Kirby will keep them close early, but his 4.84 ERA at home vs. LHP-heavy lineups is a red flag. Detroit’s lineup is making better contact (team AVG .274 last 5 games) and the bullpen is rested.
Prediction
- Score Projection: Detroit 4 – Seattle 2
- Lean: Tigers -138 (ML)
- Run Line: Detroit -1.5 (+125 value if you’re bold)**
- Total Lean: Under 6 (Playoff pressure + ace tempo = low variance)
🧾 Raymond Report Key Numbers
- Detroit After Win: 21-24 SU, but 9-2 with 1 day off (ideal prep spot).
- Seattle After Loss: 20-13 SU at home — good bounce-back record, but only .216 AVG vs LHP this month.
- Detroit vs AL West: 8-10 SU road team record but 2.95 ERA — deceptively strong.
- Seattle vs AL Central: 12-6 SU team record — good matchups historically, but Detroit has momentum.
💰 Raymond Report Playoff Value Play
👉 Detroit Tigers -138 ML & Under 6
(Pitching + momentum edge + Under cycle = profitable combo)
📊 Takeaway:
Game 5’s are built on nerves, not names. Detroit’s bullpen and left-handed ace give them the edge. Seattle’s crowd will be loud, but numbers don’t yell — they whisper “Under.”
🎯 Final Call: Detroit 4 – Seattle 2 (Under 6 Cashes)
