Belmont at the Big A & Keeneland
Sharp opinions, simple tickets, and a little trackside humor.
🗽 Belmont at the Big A (First post 1:10 ET)
Race 1 – Claiming, 1 mile dirt
This looks like a “get position and keep grinding” kind of mile. Knox (8) fits the stalk-and-pounce trip, Awesome Empire (5) keeps form, and First of His Name (4) is your steady check earner. If the rail is playing, Confabulation (1) can clunk up at a price.
Tickets: Exacta 8/5 box; saver 5/4 box. Trifecta 8/5/4 box; small saver 1/5/4 box.
Bad joke of the day: If Knox wins at 8-1, we’ll label the replay “Fort Knox.” Sorry. Couldn’t resist.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 1 mile dirt
Class-drop and second-out types rule these. Metatron (5) has the forward style to control things, Extrasensory (2) feels like the “right” chaser, and Private Flight (7) has the figures to stick around. Apalta (1) is a rail danger if the pace backs up.
Tickets: Exacta 5/2 box; 2/7 box. Trifecta 5/2/7 box; saver 1/2/7 box.
Race 3 – Claiming, 6½f dirt
The value door is open. Senor Pickles (7) owns the right late kick if they mix it early, Dark Vector (6) is the form horse, and Mackville (5) is your tote-board friend at a number. Smilensaycheese (2) is a must-use if the track tilts speed.
Tickets: Exacta 7/6 box; 6/5 box. Trifecta 7/6/5 box; saver 2/6/5 box.
Race 4 – Claiming, 1 1/16m turf
Trip race with chaos in the first turn. I Can See That (14) needs a clean break but has the finish to matter; Mission Hill (2) draws well for a ground-saving trip; The Boondocker (3) is consistent enough to land the bronze. Landman Friday (6) is the hedge if pace collapses.
Tickets: Exacta 14/2 box; 2/3 box. Trifecta 14/2/3 box; saver 6/2/3 box.
Race 5 – Maiden Optional Claiming, 6f outer turf
Debuters + second-timers = spread, but the outside speed looks live. South Philly Slide (11) is a go if he clears, Princess Andi (10) has the right stalking trip, and Alma’s Law (6) can pass tiring speed. Copper Caduceus (12) is the price I want underneath.
Tickets: Exacta 11/10 box; 10/6 box. Trifecta 11/10/6 box; saver 12/10/6 box.
Race 6 – Claiming, 6½f dirt
Bring your value hat. Blenheim Baby (5) is the live bomb in a field full of known quantities, Chocolatechocolate (9) is the reliable favorite, and Take Me to Londyn (8) gets a great outside trip. Auroralinna (4) is your deep saver.
Tickets: Exacta 5/9 box; 9/8 box. Trifecta 5/9/8 box; saver 4/9/8 box.
Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1m turf
Evenly matched—bet the trip. Mythical Man (1) saves every inch, Final Denile (4) gets first run, and Right to Win (8) drops the hammer late. Bay of Bengal (12) is a wide but usable price.
Tickets: Exacta 1/4 box; 4/8 box. Trifecta 1/4/8 box; saver 12/4/8 box.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16m outer turf
Big field, clean line needed. Brokealltherules (14) has the late punch, Just One More (2) maps a perfect pocket trip, and Addagirl Addie (6) holds value to round out exotics. Kissed by Karma (8) is the chaos button if the fractions get silly.
Tickets: Exacta 14/2 box; 2/6 box. Trifecta 14/2/6 box; saver 8/2/6 box.
🐎 Keeneland (First post 1:00 ET)
Race 1 – Claiming, 1 1/16m dirt
Short price, long exhale: Manage Xpectations (1) is the one to beat. Tarragon (7) upgrades stretching to two turns, and Miss Makenna (5) is the price stab for the minor awards. Tiz Salty (4) belongs on savers.
Tickets: Exacta 1/7 box; 7/5 box. Trifecta 1/7/5 box; saver 4/7/5 box.
Race 2 – MSW, 1 1/16m dirt
Two-turn debut types vs. improvers. Struck At Midnight (9) gets the nod on upside, Greatest (8) is clearly live, and Lexico (6) is the bomb that makes the tri pay. Click (2) can grab a share with a cleaner break.
Tickets: Exacta 9/8 box; 8/6 box. Trifecta 9/8/6 box; saver 2/8/6 box.
Race 3 – Claiming, 6f dirt
Pace + price combo: Honest Al (8) has the right draw and intent, Guardian (7) is consistent, and Tom Cat Tuesday (5) holds value. Brave Blend (3) is your rail saver with tactical speed.
Tickets: Exacta 8/7 box; 7/5 box. Trifecta 8/7/5 box; saver 3/7/5 box.
Race 4 – MSW, 1m turf
Bombs away turf maiden—embrace it. Courageous Clay (13) can float in late if he handles the turn; Tap Me a Song (9) is improving; Rapoport (1) draws perfectly to trip out. Bestball (11) is the goofy number to spice up supers.
Tickets: Exacta 13/9 box; 9/1 box. Trifecta 13/9/1 box; saver 11/9/1 box.
Race 5 – MSW, 7f dirt
Strong outside presence. Theoretical (10) gets the catbird seat, Mojo Promise (8) is an overlay with upside, and Sticker Shock (7) is perfectly logical for verticals. All About You (14) is the wide-trip talent on backups.
Tickets: Exacta 10/8 box; 8/7 box. Trifecta 10/8/7 box; saver 14/8/7 box.
Race 6 – AOC, 6f dirt
Price-first mindset again. Suncroft (7) has the look of a live upsetter, Keep It Easy (1) draws well to sit and fire, and Legalize (2) is the consistent figure horse. One True Shance (8) is a fair saver if you fear the pace scenario.
Tickets: Exacta 7/1 box; 1/2 box. Trifecta 7/1/2 box; saver 8/1/2 box.
Race 7 – Allowance, 1 1/16m turf
Plenty of ways to go, so keep it simple. Screen Test (10) should get the jump, Memorized (11) closes stoutly, and Nickel Saver (6) holds the right price to round out. Sister Troienne (4) is the “one more” on saver tickets.
Tickets: Exacta 10/11 box; 11/6 box. Trifecta 10/11/6 box; saver 4/11/6 box.
Race 8 – MSW, 6f dirt
Late card value: Barker (6) and Spellmaker (8) are the prices I want, with Homer’s Odyssey (2) the steady third piece. El Prestigio (3) is chalk protection if the tote says “live.”
Tickets: Exacta 6/8 box; 8/2 box. Trifecta 6/8/2 box; saver 3/8/2 box.
Bankroll notes for a weekday card
- Keep it boxed & modest: In big fields, exacta/tri boxes keep you alive when order flips.
- Lean into one opinion per track: Pick your best shot and bet that race 2–3x your average; sprinkle the rest.
- The “Joker” rule: add exactly one longshot to your verticals—cheap add, maximum upside, minimum heartburn.
