Favorites running hot. Overs holding steady. Dogs gasping for air. The chalk train isn’t slowing down anytime soon.
The Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) from ATSstats.com shows the NBA betting market is officially tilted in favor of favorites. With straight-up (SU) wins, ATS covers, and even Overs trending bullish, it’s been a great week for bettors who trust top-tier teams to handle business.
The key takeaway heading into the weekend: chalk is cashing, but the numbers suggest we may be approaching overvaluation territory — where lines get fat, and dogs start barking again.
📈 Straight-Up (SU): Chalk Dominates
Favorites SU: 73.6% – BULLISH
This is one of the strongest sustained SU runs we’ve seen early in a season. Over the past three days, favorites are a staggering 85% SU, and they’ve hit above 70% for two straight weeks.
Last 3 days: 85%
Last 7 days: 78%
1 Month: 73.6%
That’s dominance. If you’ve been backing elite squads like the Celtics, Nuggets, Bucks, and Thunder, you’ve been swimming in profit.
But caution: Markets always adjust. Once the public piles in on favorites, books start hanging inflated lines. Watch for heavy chalk against rested or motivated dogs in trap spots.
💸 Against the Spread (ATS): Favorites Still Covering
Favorites ATS: 56.1% – NEUTRAL trending BULLISH
Here’s the real story — favorites are not only winning, they’re covering. The short-term numbers are absurd:
- Friday, Nov 7: 9–2 ATS (82%)
- Last 3 days: 88% ATS
- Last 7 days: 74.6% ATS
That’s a red-hot stretch. It’s been a week of premium chalk paying out — teams winning comfortably and blowing through point spreads.
Market read:
The books will correct. Expect tighter spreads and potential value swings toward underdogs starting midweek if this trend continues.
Betting takeaway: Ride the hot favorites — but have an exit plan. Don’t get caught buying at the top of the market.
🔥 Totals (O/U): Offense Still Shining
Over%: 54.2% – NEUTRAL to Slightly BULLISH
Overs have cooled slightly from their early-season explosion but remain in the profit zone.
- Friday, Nov 7: 6–4–1 to the Over
- Last 3 days: 41% (dip)
- 7-Day Avg: 45%
- Month: 54%
The pattern: scoring surges in high-tempo, high-efficiency matchups, but flat lines in slower half-court contests.
Where to find Over value:
- Back-to-backs and tired defenses
- Non-conference matchups
- Teams ranked top 10 in offensive efficiency (Pacers, Kings, Hawks)
Totals are settling, but selective Overs are still profitable — especially before books fully calibrate pace metrics.
🧠 Market Psychology Breakdown
| Category | Trend | Rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SU Favorites | BULLISH | 73.6% | Power teams dominating |
| ATS Favorites | BULLISH short-term | 56.1% | Hot stretch for chalk |
| Totals (Over) | Slightly BULLISH | 54.2% | Offenses holding serve |
This is what happens when elite teams find rhythm early: public bettors pile on, and for once, they’re winning. The question is when the regression hits — not if.
Expect more balanced outcomes in the next 5–7 days as lines overcorrect. When spreads inflate by 2–3 points beyond true market value, that’s your dog-buying window.
✅ Betting Blueprint for Saturday, Nov 8
- Continue to back favorites with strong defensive metrics (Denver, Boston, Minnesota).
- Avoid chasing Overs blindly — stick to high-possession matchups.
- Look for underdog value Sunday–Monday, especially on back-to-back chalk teams playing third road games in four nights.
Pro tip: When the market’s this chalk-heavy, discipline is your edge. Ride what’s working, but know when to step off the train.
🏁 Final Word
The NBA market right now is a bettor’s dream — if you’ve been playing smart chalk and tempo-based Overs. Favorites are cashing across all formats (SU, ATS, and even in parlay combinations). But history says what goes up… eventually comes down.
So while everyone else is chasing the public streaks, remember: data wins, emotion loses.
Stay sharp, follow the daily SBI trends, and let the numbers guide your next move.
Check today’s full market report at ATSstats.com — where pros turn data into dollars. 🧠🏀💰
